Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers (Week 9) - Rookies to Stash and Top Performers

May 18, 2024

Andy's fantasy baseball prospect sleepers and risers to know for 2024 (Week 9). He analyzes MLB prospects in the minor leagues and their recent performances.

The minor league baseball season is underway and many well-known prospects are already making their case for an MLB debut later this summer.

However, the question is do these performances truly matter for this season? How easy will it be for these prospects to reach the big leagues and are they worth stashing on your redraft roster?

Knowing which prospects to watch can put you ahead of your league mates and in the driver’s seat during the second half of the season. Adding the right prospect can fill the missing piece on your roster and power you to a fantasy baseball championship. This fantasy baseball prospects biweekly series will examine a few key players in the minor leagues and assess whether they have a path to fantasy stardom in 2024.

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David Festa, RHP, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota No. 5 , Overall N/A

Minnesota Twins starting pitching prospect David Festa has been one of the most stable pitchers in Triple-A this season and could be nearing a potential promotion.

His performance with Triple-A St. Paul this season has been impressive, as he has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 30 innings. However, it's crucial to note that these statistics include one outlier start where he surrendered five earned runs in just three innings. Excluding this, he has a stellar 1.69 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 26 ⅔ innings, with a 40:16 K:BB ratio.

Last season, Festa was primarily with Double-A, pitching 80 innings with a 4.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He showed high strikeout potential, with a 104:33 K:BB ratio. He also got a small taste of Triple-A at the end of last summer, logging 12 ⅓ innings with a 2.92 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

What's truly exciting is the significant leap Festa has taken this season, showcasing a 37.2% K%, a substantial increase from his 30.4% K% in Double-A last season.

David Festa dominated today with 10 K over six shutout innings to lower his ERA to 3.00 in 30 IP for Triple-A St. Paul.

Should get some time with Minnesota this season.#MNTwinspic.twitter.com/cXA7fs1tBv

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) May 12, 2024

In addition, this season he holds a 3.23 xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) compared to his 3.65 xFIP last season.

Overall, it is a positive sign to see Festa increase his strikeout rate and maintain similar underlying metrics when facing more challenging competition for a prolonged period. This suggests that he has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Twins' pitching rotation. He will be a name to monitor all summer and could be the first name called upon when the Twins need an extra starter.

Verdict: Worth stashing in keeper leagues/AL-only

Chayce McDermott, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore No. 8, Overall N/A

Baltimore Orioles pitching prospect Chayce McDermott has been one of the best arms in the minor leagues this month. Through the first half of May, he holds a 1.54 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in two starts with an impressive 19:3 K:BB ratio. 

In April and his lone start in March, he struggled with a 3.80 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, and a 30:23 K:BB ratio. McDermott posted similar results with Triple-A Norfolk last season with a cumulative 2.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, which is quite similar to his cumulative 3.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP total now.

Chayce McDermott notches his 100th Triple-A strikeout in just his 17th start with the Tides. It's the quickest a Norfolk pitcher has reached the 100 strikeout mark. pic.twitter.com/2RnqXQVyNK

— Tides Notes (@TidesNotes) May 4, 2024

When looking at his underlying metrics, it seems that McDermott has only slightly improved his K rate (31.2%-32.9%) compared to last season. He has also shown less command of his pitches, with a significant increase in walk rate (11.7%-17.4%), which is not a good sign.

However, the Baltimore prospect has shown a remarkable transformation in his past two starts. When comparing two of his starts this season, one a recent outing on May 3 and the other on April 10, we can see several reasons he is improving.

First, he generated 43 swings in his recent outing compared to just 37 in his earlier start. Thirteen of those swings in his May outing were for strikes, while only eight were swinging strikes in his April start.

The primary reason for this was his increase in velocity. Recently, one of his breaking pitches, his curveball, averaged 77 mph compared to just 73 mph earlier in the season. This has helped him begin to generate more swinging strikes. 

With how well he is pitching at Triple-A and the recent slight uptick in velocity suggests that the 25-year-old has a solid chance to make his major league debut this summer.

Verdict: Stash in deep redraft leagues

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

Washington No. 1, Overall No. 5

The Nationals pipeline boasts two promising outfielders, Dylan Crews and James Wood. However, in this column, we will focus on the latter, whose exceptional performance this month, coupled with his imminent major league debut, has drawn the interest of all fantasy managers.

James Wood has not faced many setbacks this season after seeing Triple-A pitching for the first time. Overall on the season, he has a .346/.444/.581 line with seven home runs, 23 RBI, nine stolen bases, and a 25:32 BB:K ratio. Through the first 11 games in May, Wood is riding a .390/.469/.805 line with five long balls, 14 RBI, and a 7:8 BB:K ratio.

JAMES WOOD HOME RUN!! 😤 pic.twitter.com/glMhZ3YCjU

— Rochester Red Wings (@RocRedWings) May 8, 2024

The No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, has made significant strides this season compared to his performance last season in Double-A. One primary concern he had looming was his high strikeout rate. Last year, he posted an uninspiring 39:124 BB:K ratio through 87 games. In addition, he posted a much lower .248/.334/.492 line with 18 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Wood is on pace to smash these totals this season.

In just one offseason, his K rate dropped from a hefty 33.7% to 19.8%, and his BABIP increased from .339 to 408. The only knock on his game right now is his inability to perform as well against southpaws as he does against right-handed pitchers. He currently bats a .388 AVG with a 21:21 BB:K ratio against right-handers but a mere .212 AVG with a 4:11 BB:K ratio against lefties. 

If Wood can improve this, he could be in the major leagues in a matter of weeks. This is an area he will need to focus on to continue his success and make a significant impact at the major league level. 

James Wood is a must-stash player in all formats. Even if the Nationals tend to be patient with him and do not promote him until June, he is projected to make an immediate impact upon his promotion, which is worth holding on to your roster today. 

His potential future impact in the nation’s capital is significant, as he brings a unique set of skills and a strong track record of success. His ability to adapt to higher levels of competition and his recent surge in performance make him a player to watch and a potential game-changer for the Nationals.

Verdict: Stash in all leagues

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