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Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Craig Reynolds, Duke Johnson, Gabriel Davis, and more.
Week 15 was a very frustrating week to start your fantasy football playoffs, especially at the quarterback position. Of the top-12 QB's on the week, six of them are owened in 33%-or-less of Yahoo leagues, including Tyler Huntley (4%), Cam Newton (22%), Jared Goff (7%), Mac Jones (33%), Justin Fields (26%) and Davis Mills (3%). There are still two Week 15 games yet to be played due to COVID, but as of Tuesday morning, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo round out the QB1's which was expected.
Josh Reynolds, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVante Parker and Russell Gage turned in WR1 performances just in time for the playoffs, so hopefully you had them in your starting lineups. That's right, the Detroit Lions who arguably have the worst wide receiver group in the league had two WR1's in Week 15. Tyreek Hill, Gabriel Davis, Brandin Cooks, Christian Kirk, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Boyd and Keenan Allen were the other WR1's. Tight end played out as expected for the most part with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry coming through with massive efforts. George Kittle and Zach Ertz had decent games, finishing inside the top-six, while Cole Kmet continued to emerge, finishing as TE7 with six catches for 71 yards.
Duke Johnson was rostered in just 2% of Yahoo leagues and he finished as the RB1 for the week, not Myles Gaskin, which was a huge surprise to most. The Bills backfield has been a mess lately with the team seemingly unable to run the ball and the emergence of Matt Breida as a passing down back, but Devin Singletary showed up in a big way when it mattered most and finished as RB6 on the week. Jeff Wilson Jr., Ameer Abdullah, Justin Jackson, D'Onta Foreman and Craig Reynolds also finished as RB1's and none of those guys are owned in a terribly high percentage of Yahoo leagues. Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, James Robinson, Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones rounded out the RB1 group for this week. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 15 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.
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Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Week 15 Stats: 19-of-30 passing, 209 yards, 2 TD, 1 carry, 2 yards
Davis Mills looked great against the Jaguars in Week 15 and finished as QB10 on the week. Mills is a decent passer but he doesn't really get it done with his legs which is problematic for fantasy purposes, but he should have a decent game against the Chargers in Week 16. The Chargers defense has toughened up against the run and loosened up against the past as of late.
Bottom Line: The Chargers have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season, but they have given up 18 (Joe Burrow), 19 (Mike Glennon) and 30 (Patrick Mahomes) fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last three weeks. The Chargers shouldn't have any trouble putting points on the board against the Texans which means Mills should be throwing a lot and will likely have a big day if the Texans can protect him. Don't get too crazy and start Mills over a proven stud, but if you need help at quarterback, he should be a viable option.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Week 15 Stats: 18-of-38 passing, 156 yards, 1 TD, 15 carries, 71 yards, 1 TD
Cam Newton faced a Bills secondary without Tre'Davious White in Week 15 and he still wasn't able to have much success through the air, completing less than 50% of his passes. Newton was off the entire game and had one very bad interception at the end of the game which went straight to a Bills defender.
Bottom Line: Cam Newton isn't a lock to start in Week 16 as Panthers Coach Matt Rhule wouldn't rule out starting Sam Darnold against the Buccaneers. If you've been streaming quarterbacks, you may want to consider an alternative to Newton this week against the Buccaneers who have a fierce defensive line.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Week 15 Stats: 8 targets, 6 catches, 77 yards, 2 TD
Hunter Henry had not scored a touchdown since Week 11 against Cleveland, but he was able to come through against the Colts who have been vulnerable against tight ends this year. The Patriots found themselves unable to run the ball and playing from behind which resulted in Henry seeing more targets than usual.
Bottom Line: Hunter Henry has a tough matchup against the Bills in Week 16, but he could come through if the game becomes a shootout. The Bills have given up 60-or-more yards to tight ends just twice this season and have given up just three touchdowns to the position which limits Henry's ceiling, but he should be considered a TE1.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Week 15 Stats: 7 targets, 5 catches, 85 yards, 2 TD
Emmanuel Sanders suffered a knee injury and was held out in Week 15 which led to Gabriel Davis playing a season-high 90% of the Bills offensive snaps. This makes two weeks in a row where Davis played more than 80% of the snaps. This kid can play and as long as Sanders remains out of the lineup, he will be a factor down the stretch.
Bottom Line: Gabriel Davis should avoid J.C. Jackson in coverage against the Patriots in Week 16 so he should come through for a third week in a row.
Duke Johnson, Miami Dolphins
Week 15 Stats: 22 carries, 107 yards, 2 TD, 1 target, 1 catch, 20 yards
Duke Johnson was active for Miami for just the second time this season and played a season-high 57.7% of the offensive snaps. Myles Gaskin and the other Dolphins running backs were on the COVID list for most of the week before they were removed on Thursday morning, leading many to believe that Gaskin would return to his usual role in the offense. I have to believe that most people, including myself, were wrong about that one, as he was only owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues.
Bottom Line: The Dolphins backfield is a very difficult situation to navigate. For all we know Johnson could be inactive in Week 16 and Myles Gaskin could return to his normal role in the offense. The Dolphins backfield has grown just as, if not more frustrating to manage than the Patriots backfield and it's easier to avoid it unless you're in serious trouble at the position.
Craig Reynolds, Detroit Lions
Week 15 Stats: 26 carries, 112 yards, 1 target, 1 catch, 12 yards
After playing 46% of the Lions offensive snaps in Week 14, Craig Reynolds followed that up by playing 64.6% and rushing for over 100 yards. Reynolds looked great out there running against a tough Cardinals defense and carried the load for the Lions.
Bottom Line: Craig Reynolds looked great against the Cardinals which complicates things because Jamaal Williams was just activated off of the COVID list on Monday. If you have Reynolds on your roster, hold him until we get news on whether Williams will be starting.
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