Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge

Hello, folks! Welcome back to "Horse For The Course." The year's second major is now in the books. Brooks Koepka outlasted the field on a brutal Oak Hill layout to win the PGA Championship. It was Koepka's fifth career major championship, which puts him into rarified territory amongst his modern-era peers. Hopefully, you guys caught last week's edition of HFTC, as Brooksy was this article's "Horse" (we also had Scottie Scheffler, who scored a T2, featured).

It's always nice to get a win for you guys! Let's try to keep that positive momentum going for this week's Charles Schwab Challenge!

"Horse For The Course" is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week, check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge

Like the RBC Heritage following the Masters, the Charles Schwab Challenge presents golf fans with a nice landing spot to get their post-major-championship fix. Held at the legendary Colonial Country Club, the course is the longest-standing non-major host on the PGA Tour schedule.

In another similarity with Harbour Town, this week's Colonial layout noticeably mutes the advantage of the bombers by placing an emphasis on position off the tee, sharp approach play, and solid putting. While the big hitters certainly can - and have on several occasions - played well in this event, Colonial undoubtedly evens the playing field for the Tour's shorter hitters and routinely rewards those familiar with the ins and outs of the Texas track.

Though it's no PGA Championship, this week's field of competitors is a very good one. Sam Burns will be back to defend his Schwab title against an impressive group that includes Texans Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth, as well as elite talents such as Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

The Course: Colonial Country Club

Par 70 - 7,209 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell

This 1936 design was recognized as an instant classic. Since Colonial made its debut on the PGA Tour in 1946, the event has been played under many names, but the course has continued to endure as a mainstay on the schedule.

The tight fairways and multiple doglegs that are cut through the course's pecan trees make this layout difficult to overpower, with a premium being placed on a player's ball striking, shotmaking, and short-game abilities.

While distance is not something we ever want to totally dismiss, it does take something of a backseat in importance this week. Basically, this layout serves as an "equalizer" for the game's shorter hitters and, from DFS and betting perspectives, brings a large portion of the field into consideration.

 

Recent Charles Schwab Challenge Winners & Scoring Info

• 2022: Sam Burns (-9)
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
• 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
• 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
• 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
• Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -14.2

 

The Horse

Jordan Spieth 

• Event Scoring Average: 67.75 (10 career starts)
• Notable Course History: T7 (2022), 2nd ('21), T8 ('19), 2nd ('17), Win ('16), 2nd ('15)
• DraftKings Price: $9,900 FanDuel Price: $11,800

The native Texan heads home this weekend to make his 11th career start at Colonial. Fresh off a feisty T29 at the PGA Championship, Jordan Spieth will look to record his fifth-straight top-10 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Spieth has long been a creature of habit when it comes to the PGA Tour schedule, often shining repeatedly on his favored courses. Like Augusta National, Pebble Beach, the Copperhead Course, and Harbour Town, Colonial is a layout that stirs something in the three-time major champion. Spieth's history on this storied golf course is ridiculous...his 67.75 career scoring average blows away the next closest mark (68.50) and he's recorded a hard-to-fathom eight top-10 finishes across his 10 career starts on this layout.

We're still just two weeks removed from Spieth being forced to WD from the AT&T Byron Nelson with a wrist injury, which is certainly notable. However, he had no issues at Oak Hill last week, gaining six strokes T2G across his four rounds in the PGA Championship. Assuming he's fully healthy, Spieth has a strong chance to finally grab a win in 2023, a position that he's been frustratingly close to on several occasions this year.

 

The Ponies

Tony Finau

• Event Scoring Average: 68.71 (Seven career starts)
• Notable Course History: T4 ('22), T20 ('21), 2nd ('19)
• DraftKings Price: $10,700 FanDuel Price: $11,600

Unfortunately, Finau is coming off his worst statistical outing of the year at last week's PGA Championship, a 72-hole grind in which he lost a miserable 5.2 strokes T2G. However, there's reason to be optimistic that Big Tony rebounds this week at Colonial, a layout where he's never missed a cut and hasn't finished outside of the top-25 since 2017.

Finau probably shouldn't be so good at Colonial, as he doesn't really fit the accurate, fairways-and-greens mold that mostly succeeds on the positional layout. However, it's tough to argue with his results in the Schwab, as he's scored top-five finishes in half of his last four appearances in the event and boasts a 68.71 career scoring average that is the fourth-best in the field among those with three of more starts.

If we're willing to throw last week's poor effort out the window (Hint: I am), then Finau profiles as an immaculate option in this spot. Prior to Oak Hill, he'd gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in every start he'd made this calendar year.

 

Justin Rose

• Event Scoring Average: 68.65 (Nine career starts)
• Notable Course History: T20 ('21), T3 ('20), Win ('18)
• DraftKings Price: $9,300  FanDuel Price: $10,600

Despite a win at Pebble Beach in February, top-25s at the Masters and Heritage, as well as top-10s at the PLAYERS and PGA Championship; it feels as though Justin Rose has been flying under the radar all year.

Rose won the Schwab in 2018 and has missed just one cut across nine career starts. He now heads to a Colonial golf course that's been very kind to him throughout the years with brimming confidence and form that's been rock solid in recent outings.

The Englishman handled himself beautifully on a treacherous Oak Hill layout last week, gaining an eye-opening 4.6 strokes on Approach at the PGA Championship. The hot irons were not an aberration, as Rose has now gained strokes on Approach in nine straight tournament appearances.

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Brendon Todd

• Event Scoring Average: 69.65 (Seven career starts)
• Notable Course History: 3rd ('22) T8 ('21), T5 ('14)
• DraftKings Price: $7,800 FanDuel Price: $9,600

I've been called a Brendon Todd "hater" in some golf circles. That's not the case at all, as I really respect what Todd's game is and what he's able to accomplish with it. The problem is that his skill set just isn't viable on a ton of the courses on the PGA Tour schedule.

However, there are a handful of times a year when I'm circling the UGA alum's name and giving him the green light. This week's Charles Schwab Challenge just happens to be one of those instances, as the "Toddster" has proven himself capable of handling this short, positional Colonial layout by going 3rd-T8 in his last two Schwab starts.

It's tough to judge him statistically, as there are so many courses where he's simply drawing dead. As an example, the fact that he lost just over two strokes on Approach last week at Oak Hill means basically nothing to me. The areas where he does thrive are hitting fairways (15th Fairways Gained), knocking it close from manageable yardages (23rd Overall Proximity), and consistently rolling the rock beautifully (eight SG: Putting). All those facets should be able to shine this week.

 

Emiliano Grillo

• Event Scoring Average: 69.46 (Seven career starts)
• Notable Course History: T8 ('21), T19 ('19), 3rd ('18)
• DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,400

You wanna get nuts? Let's get nuts. Sure, my RotoBaller colleague Byron Lindeque's pen pal, Emiliano, shot a million last week at Oak Hill, but it means very little to me in the context of the coming week at Colonial, a golf course on which the Argentinian has routinely excelled.

He has taken a shine to Colonial to the tune of a 69.46 career scoring average and two top-10 results since 2018. The normally-erratic Grillo has been a bankable DFS commodity in the Schwab, making the cut in six of his seven career appearances in the Texas event.

Prior to last week's PGA Championship debacle, Grillo had found a very nice groove that had led to top-seven finishes at both Mexico and Hilton Head, as well as a top-25 at Quail Hollow. He gained a combined 19 (!) strokes on Approach across those three starts. Grillo is not very far removed from that form and I look for him to rediscover his ball striking on a Colonial layout where he's very comfortable. And, despite the missed cut last week, it looks as though he left Rochester in a cheerful mood.

 

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