Brandon Nimmo and Sean Manaea: Buying/Selling the Latest Off-Season News for Fantasy Baseball

December 9, 2022

Ben Rosener takes a look at some of the rumors going on at the baseball winter meetings. Are Brandon Nimmo and Sean Manaea close to new contracts?

Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts next spring

The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues next spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with a reported signing that happened late on Thursday night.

Buying for Fantasy Baseball

Mets Re-Signing Brandon Nimmo

The New York Mets are bringing back outfielder Brandon Nimmo, per a tweet from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman on Thursday night. It’s a reported eight-year pact for the outfielder.

While it might have been ideal for fantasy purposes for Nimmo to go somewhere with a slightly more fantasy-friendly park – Citi Field tied for the fourth-lowest park factor in the league last season per Statcast – sticking around with the National League East powerhouse should suit Nimmo’s fantasy prospects just fine as an elite run-scoring option.

Last season, just five qualified hitters scored more runs than Nimmo, who crossed the plate 102 times for Buck Showalter’s club. For reference, that was more than the likes of Trea Turner, Manny Machado, Dansby Swanson, teammate Francisco Lindor, and Yordan Alvarez. Put differently, it was more than every position player in the sport not named  Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Altuve.

And while the Mets’ pitching staff looks decidedly different already, their lineup nucleus remains largely unchanged with Pete Alonso, Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Daniel Vogelbach, and Darin Ruf set to return as of now. If anything, New York could stack an even better lineup behind Nimmo at the leadoff spot, particularly if Francisco Alvarez steps into a larger role and offseason additions are brought in.

Though even if the Mets remain similarly productive – they did score the sixth-most runs in the Majors –Nimmo should continue to thrive, especially in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring. It is in those leagues where the outfielder is even more valuable.

Here’s a list:

• Brandon Nimmo
• Aaron Judge
• Manny Machado
• Paul Goldschmidt

What do the quartet have in common? They’re the only four players in the league to top 100 runs scored and had a .360 on-base percentage during the 2022 campaign.

This is entirely speculative, but Nimmo would seem to be locked into the leadoff spot in Queens heading into next year. The veteran logged 673 plate appearances for the National League East franchise last season. Of those 673, 669 came from the leadoff spot. Essentially, Nimmo hit second once in a June 16 contest against Milwaukee. That was the only start where he wasn’t hitting leadoff.

While Nimmo won’t be a league winner in the RBI category like he is in runs scored, he should continue to see a decent number of RBI chances. New York’s seven, eight, and nine hitters tied for seventh in the league in on-base percentage from the bottom three spots in the order. Elsewhere, only 10 teams’ leadoff hitters saw more plate appearances with runners in scoring position than the Mets’ leadoff hitters.

In short, Nimmo’s signing is certainly a good sign for the Mets and fantasy managers alike.

(Potentially) Buying for Fantasy Baseball

Giants Reportedly Being Interested In Sean Manaea

According to an article by Susan Slusser in The San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday, the San Francisco Giants are reportedly interested in the free-agent starter. Slusser wrote:

“According to a source, Manaea, a left-hander, is among the options San Francisco is considering to fill out the rotation with Carlos Rodón also still on the radar but potentially out of the team’s price range for that slot. … The Giants have shown an expertise in identifying mid-market starters who are prime candidates for major bouncebacks, and Manaea could fit that bill nicely.”

As Slusser notes, Manaea is indeed a bounceback candidate after logging a career-high ERA (4.96) and FIP (4.53) in 158 innings for the San Diego Padres last season.

A pitcher who’s thrived on limiting hard contact and walks in the past – Manaea had the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate and walk rate among pitchers with at least 200 combined innings from 2020 to 2021 – the veteran struggled with San Diego. A speculative switch in the division to Oracle Park certainly couldn’t hurt the left-hander’s rebound chances.

Of course, the same could probably be said last season – although more from a continued success angle – in terms of a switch from spacious Oakland Coliseum to Petco Park. Still, as Slusser noted, San Francisco has plenty of success with these types of free-agent starters and Manaea’s rebound potential could easily come down to helping his changeup regain effectiveness.

Of course, it’s not quite that simple, and the veteran’s walks did rise a bit with the Padres, but a deep dive into Manaea’s batted ball and pitch usage data reveal plenty of similarities between this past season and the 2021 campaign. During the 2021 campaign, it should be noted, Manaea logged a 3.91 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 179.1 innings for Oakland, striking out 194 batters and surrendering just 41 walks.

Sean Manaea In 2021:

• 41.2% Hard-Hit Rate
• .312 xwOBA
• 8.0% barrel rate
• .393 xwOBAcon
• 4.12 xERA
• 12.3% Swinging Strike Percentage
• Sinker Usage Rate: 60.0%
• Changeup Usage Rate: 24.3%
• Slider Usage Rate: 15.0%
• Curveball Usage Rate: 0.7%

Sean Manaea In 2022:

• 42.9% Hard-Hit Rate
• .312 xwOBA
• 9.1% barrel rate
• .376 xwOBAcon
• 4.05 xERA
• 12.0 Swinging Strike Percentage
• Sinker Usage Rate: 60.9%
• Changeup Usage Rate: 24.5%
• Slider Usage Rate: 13.9%
• Curveball Usage Rate: 0.7%

Of course, while threw the changeup nearly as often as he did in 2021, Manaea’s changeup wasn’t nearly as effective this past season. After opposing batters logged a -10 run value and, a .238 average, a .268 xwOBA, and a 38.3%hard-hit rate against the pitch in 2021, those numbers jumped to +11, .301, .323, and 44.4% this past season.

The Giants have helped free-agent starters find even more success with their primary non-fastball offering in the past. One recent example is Anthony DeSclafani, who saw his slider go from a solid offering effectiveness-wise in his last year in Cincinnati with the Reds, to a decidedly above-average pitch based on effectiveness in his first year in San Francisco with the Giants.

Anthony DeSclafani’s Slider In 2020 With Cincinnati:

32.4% Usage rate, -3 run value, 34.8% whiff rate, 21.3 K%, .313 xwOBA, 48.6% hard-hit rate

Anthony DeSclafani’s Slider In 2021 With San Francisco:

35.7% Usage Rate, -11 run value, 32.2% whiff rate, 29.2 K%, .290 xwOBA, 42.5% hard-hit rate

Obviously, Manaea has yet to sign yet, but there’s plenty of intriguing upside – speculatively speaking – for both the Giants and fantasy managers if he were to join San Francisco this winter.

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