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The initial shock and awe surrounding the release of the NFL's 2023 schedule release have subsided, and now it's time to find a strategy for your fantasy drafts by examining each team's schedule.
It is universally acknowledged that the Philadelphia Eagles face the toughest path to the Super Bowl, but does that change our fantasy options? It is also said that the Atlanta Falcons have one of the easiest schedules. So, should we target players like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, or Kyle Pitts?
While the strength of schedule equations primarily considers a team's wins and losses, the difficulty of the schedule can affect your fantasy fortunes. This is a glimpse of a major winner and a loser post-schedule release.
Atlanta Falcons Winner Post Schedule Release
The Falcons are scheduled to play only four playoff teams from 2022. It's worth noting that four is the fewest number of playoff teams a team can face based on the current scheduling formula. The combined 2022 record of the Falcons' opponents is 119-167-3, resulting in a combined winning percentage of .417.
In the upcoming season, the Falcons will play teams from the NFC North and AFC South, as well as their division rivals in the NFC South. Additionally, they have scheduled contests against the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders.
Easiest Schedule and Most Improved Team
The Falcons enter the upcoming season with the easiest schedule and have arguably one of the most improved teams. They made key acquisitions in free agency to address their main area of concern from last season, which was their defense.
In the 2022 season, the Falcons struggled in pass defense, allowing an average of 231.9 passing yards per game, which ranked 25th in the league. They also struggled to create turnovers, collecting only 10 interceptions, ranking 27th in the league. Additionally, they ranked 31st in sacks with only 21 for the entire season, and they pressured the quarterback only 23.6% of the time, ranking 31st.
The bolster their defense, they signed safety Jessie Bates III, who automatically elevates the Falcons' secondary. He will join AJ Terrell and the newly acquired Jeff Okudah. The front seven was also strengthened with the signings of free agents David Onyemata, Bud Dupree, and Calais Campbell. In the 2023 NFL Draft, Atlanta added running back Bijan Robinson on offense.
Potential Fantasy Winner
Robinson is a potential fantasy winner, as he was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, marking the earliest a running back had been drafted in the past five years. This selection is warranted, considering the career he put together with the Texas Longhorns. Pro Football Focus credited Robinson with a single-season record of 104 missed tackles last year. Throughout his three seasons at Texas, he produced an average of 6.3 yards per carry and scored 41 touchdowns.
Last season, the Falcons ranked second in rush attempts per game, averaging 32.9. They also ranked second in rushing yards per game, totaling 159.9. Their leading rusher was rookie Tyler Allgeier, who amassed 1,035 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. Allgeier broke the Falcons' rookie record for rushing yards in a season. There is a chance Robinson could smash that record this season, even if he has to share the backfield with Allgeier.
Betting Odds
With the easiest schedule and most improved team, the Falcons have increased their odds. According to Fanduel.com, they are listed at +230 to win the NFC South, while the New Orleans Saints are favored at +135 in the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, last year's division winner, are considered long shots at +550.
Regarding their win total, the Falcons are listed at -105 for over 8.5 wins, while the odds for under 8.5 wins currently stand at -115. If you believe their favorable schedule will lead them to the postseason, the odds are +116 for the Falcons to make the playoffs, whereas the odds for them not making the playoffs are -142.
In their first game against the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons are currently favored by -3 points. The over/under for the game is 43.5, and the Moneyline for the Falcons is -152.
Philadelphia Eagles Losers From Schedule Release
The Eagles face a challenging schedule with 10 games against teams that made the playoffs in 2022. Additionally, there will be no comfort at home, as six out of their eight home matchups are against playoff teams from last year. The combined record of their opponents is 161-123-4, resulting in a win percentage of .566.
In addition to their divisional rivals in the NFC East, the Eagles will square off against the NFC West and AFC East. This includes matchups with Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Aaron Donald. They will also face the defense units of the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and New York Jets. Furthermore, the Eagles will go head-to-head with last year's division winners, the Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Hardest Schedule and Some Hard Losses
The Eagles will also be dealing with some substantial losses, starting with their coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is now the head coach in Indianapolis and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon now holds the same position in Arizona.
In terms of free agency, the team has seen the departure of safeties CJ Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps. They have also experienced losses in their front seven with linebackers TJ Edwards and Kyzir White leaving the team. However, the Eagles have made some strides in the 2023 NFL Draft with their two first-round picks. With the ninth overall pick, they selected defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and at the 30th overall pick, they added linebacker Nolan Smith.
Additionally, the Eagles acquired safety Terrell Edmunds and cornerback Greedy Williams in free agency to bolster their secondary. They have also managed to retain center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox for another year, providing stability and veteran experiences to their roster.
However, their brutal schedule poses a formidable task for both incoming rookies and veteran players. After a Week 10 bye, they face a tough stretch of games against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals before finishing with another matchup against the Giants.
Potential Fantasy Football Loser
Running back D'Andre Swift is the potential fantasy loser. He is currently listed as the RB1 in the Eagles' offense, per ourlads.com.
The Eagles will face 10 of the top 20 teams that allowed the fewest fantasy points to the running back position in 2022. Their schedule includes four teams in the top five, including the 49ers, who allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs with an average of 11.2 fantasy points per game.
Three more of their opponents were ranked seven through nine in the least amount of fantasy points per game to the running back. The Buccaneers allowed 15.5 fantasy points per game, the Bills gave up 16.1 fantasy points, and the Jets surrendered only 16.2 fantasy points per game to the position.
Given their brutal schedule and offensive philosophy, there is a strong chance that the Eagles deploy a running back by committee. In addition to Swift, Phidalpehia has Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Trey Sermon in their running back room.
Betting Odds
The Eagles are still the favorite to win the NFC East at +100. Within the division, the Commanders are the longshot at +1000, the Giants are at +600, and the Cowboys sit at +175. The Eagles are -158 to win over 10.5 games and +128 to have under 10.5 wins. If you believe they can make the playoffs with the hardest schedule, the odds are -400. Conversely, if you think the difficult schedule will keep the Eagles out of the playoffs, then the odds are +300.
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