Fantasy Basketball Buy or Sell: Reacting to Early-Season Performances

October 30, 2024

Alex Burns discusses how to view several NBA players in Fantasy Basketball Leagues this week. (November 17)

If you’ve clicked on this article, chances are you’ve got some strong feelings about the first three nights of basketball. Maybe the player you were hyped about totally flopped (looking at you, Jimmy Butler), and now you're stuck in panic mode. Or—hear me out—the guy you auto-drafted in the 10th round just went off, and now you’re wondering if it’s time to cash out before reality sets in.

Well, guess what? That’s exactly what we will break down in this weekly series! Winning a fantasy hoops title is way more than just nailing draft night. It's about mastering the art of player value, spotting trends, and managing your roster like a pro. Every Friday, I’ll dive into my favorite buy-low, sell-high, and hold players as we progress through the season. Think of it as your go-to guide to making those tough calls and keeping your fantasy squad in championship contention.

Before we dive in, let me drop some wisdom: RELAX. It’s early. One of the goals for this series is to help us all take a deep breath and learn how to analyze performances with a cool, logical approach. Instead of making knee-jerk decisions out of frustration, let's slow down, ask the right questions, and base our moves on data, not emotions. Since it’s still early in the season, I will highlight a few impressive performances that I think are the real deal—and a few that I wouldn’t panic about just yet. No need to jump into trade talk just yet, let’s give it another week to see how things shake out.

Impressive Performances

Onyeka Okongwu, C - Atlanta Hawks

Game 1 stats: 28 points, (11-12 FG, 6-6 FT), eight rebounds, one assist, and three blocks in 28 minutes

Okongwu made an explosive debut this season with a monster fantasy line, but what gets me excited is seeing him seemingly jump ahead of Clint Capela in the rotation. If you’ve been playing fantasy the last few years, you know how frustrating it’s been watching him split minutes with Capela. But finally, it looks like that headache might be fading. Yes, Capela did get the start, but he only logged 19 minutes compared to Okongwu’s 28.

Now, before we go wild, let’s pump the brakes for a second. Is Okongwu going to shoot 92% all season? Of course not. Will he finish the season without missing a free throw? Unlikely. Is he going to swat three shots every night? Probably not. But that’s not what’s got me fired up. It’s the opportunity—the real chance that Okongwu could leapfrog Capela in the pecking order.

Here’s a guy who’s managed to stay fantasy-relevant, even while sharing minutes, averaging 24.4 minutes per game over the last two seasons (did I just sound like Chris Collinsworth? Yikes.). Now imagine what he could do with closer to 30 minutes a night. Even if he keeps coming off the bench, that extra run is all he needs to truly break out this season. I’m all in!

Dyson Daniels, G - Atlanta Hawks

Game 1 stats: 15 points, (6-12 FG, 2-4 3PT, 1-4 FT), five rebounds, two assists, FIVE steals, and one block in 34 minutes

Daniels was one of my favorite late-round picks this season—I drafted him in almost every league. Don’t believe me? Here’s the receipt: a piece I published a few weeks ago where I called him a third-year breakout. Okay, I’ll stop tooting my own horn... maybe.

In all seriousness, Daniels starting over Bogdan Bogdanovic in the preseason had me intrigued, but I was eager to see how things would play out when the games actually mattered. And in the Hawks’ opener, he gave us exactly what we were hoping for. Not only did he start, but he logged a hefty 34 minutes—that’s a game-changer for a player with his versatile skillset.

He wrapped up the night with 15 points, five boards, two threes, five steals, and a block. While the steals might calm down a bit, it’s worth noting he averaged 2.1 steals Per 36 last season, so he’s no slouch in that department and should be an elite contributor there moving forward.

Bottom line: if Daniels is still out there on your waiver wire, stop what you’re doing and grab him right now. It might sound ridiculous that I have to say this, but as of Thursday night, he’s only rostered in 40% of Yahoo leagues. That’s straight-up criminal!

Evan Mobley, F/C - Cleveland Cavaliers

Game 1 stats: 25 points, (9-14 FG, 1-2 3PT, 6-6 FT), nine rebounds, three assists, two steals, and three blocks in 26 minutes

Mobley is loaded with fantasy potential, but we've been waiting for him to put all the pieces together. His performance in the Cavs' opener hinted that this might finally be the season. While his 25-point showing may not be the norm with Cleveland’s loaded offense, what impressed me most was Mobley’s efficiency and defensive presence. He shot a stellar 64% from the field and 100% from the line.

Those numbers might dip, but even a slight improvement in these areas could signal a true breakout, considering he shot 58% last season and 68% from the stripe for his career. Defensively, his block rate has dropped since his rookie average of 1.7, so watching him swat three shots in just 26 minutes was a great sign.

One question that remains, though, is how much playing time the Cavs’ starters will get under new head coach Kenny Atkinson. I’ve talked about this a lot over the offseason—during his tenure with the Brooklyn Nets, Atkinson never played any single player more than 32.9 minutes per game over his four seasons. Mobley averaged a career-low 30.6 minutes last year, so it’d be fantastic to see him closer to the 34-minute range he saw in his first two seasons.

As a Mobley manager myself in the RotoBaller Writer’s League, I’m thrilled with his start. I’m not sweating the minutes too much; he should still see enough floor time to support a breakout.

DO NOT PANIC

Jimmy Butler, G/F - Miami Heat

Game 1 stats: 3 points (1-8 FG, 0-2 3PT, 1-2 FT), four rebounds, five assists, one steal, and one block in 25 minutes

I can fully sympathize with anyone who drafted Jimmy Butler hoping for a bounce-back. After all, I am a Heat fan who also drafted a ton of Butler, so this stings twice as much. But after one game, I'm not panicking too much. The entire Heat team looked abysmal, including fellow star Bam Adebayo, who finished with nine points on 20% shooting with no defensive stats. The game was over in the third quarter and the reserves were tasked with landing the plane.

Even if Butler has lost a little bit of his elite juice, he's not going to shoot 12% for the season and I believe the defensive stats will arrive sooner than later. And for what it's worth, the five assists in 25 minutes wasn't a terrible sign. With Terry Rosier and Tyler Herro in the starting five, Butler has displayed a propensity for getting guys involved more than in years past.

At the end of the day, no one has a crystal ball, but I still believe we will see an improved Butler this season. Heck, I've even thrown out a couple of trade offers to acquire him in leagues where I didn't draft him, hopeful that someone takes the bait and sells him to me for a discounted price.

Darius Garland, PG - Cleveland Cavaliers

Game 1 stats: 7 points (3-12 FG, 1-6 3PT), one rebound, and six assists in 22 minutes

Garland’s low minutes in the opener were the result of early foul trouble and a blowout, so don’t read too much into it. Sure, shooting 25% from the field isn’t ideal, but that’s bound to bounce back to normal. While I don’t have too many shares of Garland this season, if I did, I’d be tossing out a few lowball trade offers. Why? Because there’s a chance his manager just glanced at the final stat line, felt queasy, and might be willing to sell low. Now’s the time to capitalize on that.

Jalen Suggs, PG - Orlando Magic

Game 1 stats: 11 points (3-4 FG, 1-2 3PT, 4-4 FT), two rebounds, four assists, and one steal in 12 minutes

Given the circumstances, Suggs delivered elite production on a per-minute basis. Like Garland, he got into early foul trouble—picking up three fouls in the first five minutes—which sidelined him for the rest of the half. By the time he returned in the third quarter, the game was essentially out of reach. While he still put up a respectable line, it’s easy to look at the box score, see just 12 minutes compared to Anthony Black’s 27, and start to panic—without understanding the full context.

The Magic just extended Suggs and paid him well. He’s their guy. There’s absolutely nothing to worry about here.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG - Atlanta Hawks

Game 1 stats: 8 points (2-6 FG, 2-6 3PT, 2-2 FT), two rebounds, two assists, and two blocks in 27 minutes

With all the buzz around Dyson Daniels, it feels like Bogdanovic has been flying under the radar. Sure, he only took six shots in 27 minutes, but the playing time is there, and as the Hawks' 6th man, he’s bound to see much more volume moving forward. I know people are getting anxious—I’ve been flooded with questions on X about whether it’s time to drop him. The answer is simple: No.

Quick update: Bogdanovic has been ruled out for Friday’s game with a hamstring injury. Even so, I still wouldn’t drop him. Just slide him into your IR/IL spot and hold tight.