RADIO
Dawn Tepper's deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 11 (2025).
Welcome back to Unlikely Aces. We've reached mid-June, and while the MLB fantasy season has been full of surprises, some of the most reliable contributions have come from the most unexpected places. Sometimes, the sexiest pick isn't the right one, and that's what we're focusing on this week.
Each week, we'll look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming? Let's take a deeper look!
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Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
53% Rostered
Wacha just notched his second straight quality start and sixth overall this season, quietly putting together solid numbers for Kansas City with a 3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts against just 19 walks over 74.2 innings.
His June 7 quality start ended up as another tough-luck loss, but Wacha still did his job, generating 12 swings and misses while hitting the strike zone on 64 of his 95 pitches. The Royals offense hasn't done any favors for what's the second-best rotation in baseball, but Wacha keeps pounding the zone and giving his team a chance to win every time out.
Michael Wacha, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/zVYJMnLuS6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2025
Regression warning signs are flashing for the 33-year-old veteran. Wacha doesn't pile up strikeouts, and when he falls behind in counts, that changeup loses its bite. The surface stats look nice, but dig deeper and you'll find troubling signs.
He's getting hit hard 32% of the time, giving up barrels at a 6.9% rate, and allowing an average exit velocity of 86.9 mph -- all suggesting his luck might run out when those hard-hit balls start finding gaps. Wacha comes with risk, but if you're betting that regression stays away for a few more months, he could deliver serious value.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
66% Rostered
Jameson Taillon has quietly been putting together an excellent stretch with the Cubs, and since May 1, things have been looking up. The 33-year-old has posted a 3.16 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 42.2 innings in seven starts while striking out 19.5% of batters faced.
That strikeout rate isn't optimal, but the underlying metrics suggest a real improvement, regardless of what naysayers on X say.
Jameson Taillon has been very good for the Cubs over his last 9 starts:
54.2 IP
2.80 ERA
0.86 WHIP
.191 Opp BA
19.1 K%
4.3 BB%
pic.twitter.com/zL39NGMRg5— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) June 10, 2025
A rebuilt changeup is the key to these numbers, and Taillon is now using it 28.5% of the time in two-strike counts against lefties (up from just 10% last year). It's still early, and we'll have to see if the command improvements stick, but if you wait too long, the buying opportunity will pass.
The changeup has given him a much safer floor and transformed him from a streamer into a must-roster player in deeper formats. Jump on Taillon before other managers catch on to the new changeup for his consistent fantasy production.
Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays
47% Rostered
Zack Littell is quietly putting together one of the more impressive runs by a Rays starter in recent memory. After tossing the franchise's first complete game in four years last week, the right-hander followed up with another solid outing Friday, holding Miami to one run over six innings in sweltering heat at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
During his current hot streak, the numbers are eye-catching. Tampa Bay has won eight straight games that Littell has started, with the veteran going 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over that span. Littell remains unowned in many fantasy leagues, so managers have to determine if they're looking at a legitimate breakout or just another streamer who got hot at the right time.
ZACK LITTELL WITH THE FIRST RAYS COMPLETE GAME SINCE 2021 pic.twitter.com/maVSmFHFu6
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) May 31, 2025
Littell's turnaround has been crucial for Tampa Bay's recent surge. Since May 20, the Rays rotation has gone 10-2, helping the team post a 13-3 record over that stretch. Looking ahead, if Littell finds himself in play at the trade deadline, the Yankees could come calling. If he finds himself on the Bombers' mound, he could be an appealing fantasy option for managers down the stretch.
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