Home Run (HR) Risers for Fantasy Baseball - September Power Surgers (2026)

February 15, 2026

Jarod's 2026 fantasy baseball sleepers for home runs (HR) based on power surges in September. Targets these home run risers and values for fantasy baseball drafts.

Welcome, RotoBallers! In this article, we're going to take a look at players who had powerful finishes in 2025 to see if it's sustainable in 2026. Yes, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Cal Raleigh had the most home runs in September, but no, we're not going to discuss them. You know they're going to hit for power no matter what. Instead, we're going to review names like Jackson Merrill and Junior Caminero.

We did a similar exercise last season, and the name at the top of the list? Eugenio Suarez, who went on to hit 49 bombs last season. We also outlined Michael Harris II, who had an awful start to the year, but still finished with a career-high 20 home runs. Wyatt Langford was also on the list, and despite missing significant time due to injury, he still managed to wallop 22 home runs, which led all Rangers sluggers.

Hopefully, we can identify a few more players who had an entire offseason to refine their late-season approach and can ride that momentum into 2026. The table below shows the HR leaders from last September and their change in power metrics from September to the end of August. We will look at a handful of hitters who took a step forward, potentially providing us with sneaky home run-related value in our fantasy drafts.

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2025 September HR Leaders

As seen above, many players' Attack Angle (AA) did not change at all, but even small changes (positive or negative) can affect contact quality. Big changes can result in even bigger changes and perhaps even less contact, as seen with Nick Kurtz, who had the largest change in Attack Angle. Sure, he clobbered a bunch of home runs, but his average in September dropped significantly (from .308 to .221) as he also saw a spike in strikeout rate from 29.8 percent to 35.1 percent.

Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres

September stats: .275/.320/.626, 7 HR
ATC HR projection: 22

Jackson Merrill is the first player we'll discuss, as his September breakout of all the players outlined here seems to have the most upside based on the statistics. The former NL Rookie of the Year runner-up had a solid year overall (116 wRC+), but three trips to the injured list caused him to log just 115 games played, resulting in a .264-16-67-59-1 stat line.

The 2024 All-Star's bat came alive in the last month of the season, though, with 16 of his 25 hits (64 percent) going for extra bases, seven of which left the ballpark. But it wasn't the first time he's hit that many home runs in a month, as he hit seven in August of '24 and nine in June of '24. That season, he finished with 24 home runs.

Jackson Merrill hits his SECOND game-tying homer of the night! pic.twitter.com/AWqt7debtf

— MLB (@MLB) July 13, 2025

So could the left-handed hitter eclipse that number in 2026? Well, first, he'll need to stay healthy. Assuming health, the September numbers showed a big change compared to his numbers through the end of August.

As can be seen in the table above, Merrill had one of the highest increases in attack angle (AA) at three degrees (from nine to 12 degrees), while also increasing his hard-hit rate by 13.5 percent and barrel rate by 8.6 percent. Note, as it relates to AA, power hitters like to live in the 10-14 degree range.

What's more is that the former first-round draft pick's zone swing rate and chase rate remained stable, meaning he didn't change his decision-making on pitches. However, a 4.8 percent increase in Pull% revealed he was getting to the ball sooner and pulling more pitches, leading to better, more power-producing contact.

With an offseason to get healthy, having shown solid home run production in 2024, and a September blueprint for success to work on in the offseason, the 22-year-old has a real shot to outproduce his current ATC projection of 22 home runs. If he can get back to double-digit steals (16 in '24), the 6-foot-3 slugger would also outproduce his current ADP of around 70 overall.

Mike Trout, DH/OF, Los Angeles Angels

September stats: .241/.344/.494, 6 HR
ATC HR projection: 25

We all know that Mike Trout is not the hitter he once was, as injuries have been piling up for several seasons now; however, the power still appears to be intact. He hit 40 home runs in 2022 in just 119 games, and even hit 26 long balls last year in 130 games played.

Mike Trout continues to pulverize baseballs 😮 pic.twitter.com/jbipbYGxre

— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2025

This year, the three-time MVP is projected to play in 122 games, but is also projected to hit another 25 home runs. The September power surge could prove that his 25-homer projection for 2026 is attainable, and surely surpassable if somehow he's able to log more games.

The 11-time All-Star belted six home runs in September, which came with a two-degree change in attack angle (from seven to nine degrees). It didn't come with a corresponding increase in Pull%, though, as Trout tends to spray with power to all fields, but he also saw a 14.0 percent increase in hard-hit rate and a 9.7 percent increase in barrel rate during the month.

If September was any indication of what he'll be able to accomplish in 2026, then the veteran could easily outperform his current ADP of 191 overall. Hopefully, the 34-year-old can avoid the injury bug this year, and despite the advancing age, fellow veteran Freddie Freeman is still performing at a high level at age 36, so there should be some hope for the nine-time Silver Slugger award winner.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

September stats: .319/.386/.582, 6 HR
ATC HR projection: 37

After a 45-home run campaign in 2025, there's no doubt about Caminero's power, and although he clubbed six home runs in September, he hit at least six home runs in each month of the season, even going nuclear in August with a whopping 12 dingers.

No change in AA corroborates the consistent power throughout the season, but what was notable in September was a 5.9 percent increase in hard-hit rate and a 6.1 percent increase in barrel rate. It's no wonder the 6-foot-1 Dominican saw his best month in terms of most statistics, including batting average (.319), OPS (.969), wOBA (.413), and wRC+ (168).

After some quad injuries raised some durability concerns during his time in the minors, Caminero played in 154 games for the Rays last season, hopefully putting those concerns to rest.

While the 22-year-old's home run projection of 37 is already pretty high, if any fantasy managers had unease about whether or not he could return to that threshold or even attain 45 HR again, a 92nd percentile average exit velocity (92.4) at his age and with the top bat speed in the majors should allay those concerns.

He's already extremely pricey in early drafts, going around pick 15, but the history of elite power, the statistics to back it up, and the all-around surge in September validate the cost.

Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs

September stats: .244/.337/.634, 8 HR
ATC HR projection: 28

Michael Busch blasted eight home runs in September, the most he's hit in any one month so far in his young career, although he also belted seven home runs in both June and July, for what it's worth.

What stood out in September, though, was an 8.0 percent increase in hard-hit rate and an 8.1 percent increase in barrel rate after a three-degree reduction in AA (from 17 degrees to 14 degrees) and a 4.8 percent increase in Pull%. He posted his best SLG of any month last season as well, registering at .634.

Based on a fairly big drop in his zone-swing%, a slight drop in chase rate, and a substantial increase in walks (from 8.9 percent to 12.6 percent) during September, it appeared that Busch got a bit more selective in his approach, leading to much improved contact (average EV jumped from 91.7 to 94.6).

Michael Busch is MASHING baseballs!

He bangs his third homer of the series 🔥 pic.twitter.com/rhy87qExW8

— MLB (@MLB) October 10, 2025

The left-handed slugger recorded 34 home runs last season (and four more in the postseason), and 35-plus should not be out of the question this year. A home run projection of 28 appears conservative, and the 28-year-old won't cost a lot with an ADP of 108.

Honorable Mentions: Other Home Run Sleepers

Daylen Lile (OF, WAS)

Lile hit six home runs in September. He doesn't have a history of hitting a ton of home runs in the minors, but the fact that he was able to bat .391 in the final month and stole eight bases in 91 games means the 23-year-old has an intriguing fantasy skillset that should not be ignored in 2026 drafts, especially with an ADP of 208.

Ivan Herrera (DH, STL)

Herrera launched eight home runs in September and 19 on the year. He did so in just 107 games and 452 plate appearances, which is a 25-homer pace if given 600 PA. The 25-year-old also posted a 137 wRC+. The catcher position isn't as devoid of offense as it once was, but Herrera could provide five-category production, something that could give managers loads of value at pick 175.

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