Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Jimmy Graham, Isaiah McKenzie, Rex Burkhead, and more.

Week 16 was headlined by Joe Burrow who set a Bengals record with 525 yards and four touchdowns and Dak Prescott who threw four touchdowns while leading the Cowboys to 42 points in the first half against Washington. Aaron Rodgers went off in the first half against the Browns with three touchdowns, but his day could have been much better if his injured toe didn't get stepped on which likely contributed to the Packers' decision to run out the clock for much of the second half. Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Zach Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Johnson, Justin Herbert, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins rounded out the QB1's for the week. Tight end was a train wreck this week if you had somebody other than Mark Andrews (TE1), Dalton Schultz (TE2), Gerald Everett (TE3), Kyle Pitts (TE4) or Zach Ertz (TE8) in your lineup. The other TE1's on the week either gained less than 50 yards and scored or were very uninvolved. Ertz is highlighted because he had eight grabs for 54 yards on 13 targets, so he is very relevant.

Three Bengals wide receivers finished as top-15 wide receivers this week as Tee Higgins (WR1), Tyler Boyd (WR13) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR14) all went off against a depleted Ravens secondary. Davante Adams (WR2) went for 114 yards and two touchdowns and A.J. Brown (WR3) returned to the Titans lineup with a 145-yard and one touchdown performance. Isaiah McKenzie (WR4) did well while filling in for Cole Beasley, Deebo Samuel (WR5) was heavily involved in the passing game (9 catches, 159 yards) and Byron Pringle (WR6) scored twice for the Chiefs. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, DeVonta Smith and Cooper Kupp rounded out the WR1's on the week.

Justin Jackson was RB1 on the week filling in for Austin Ekeler who was on the COVID list and Joe Mixon scored twice, ending the game on a 52-yard catch from Joe Burrow which allowed the Bengals to run out the clock. Damien Harris had the Patriots backfield to himself and scored twice to finish as RB3 and a former Patriots running back, Rex Burkhead, also had a workhorse role for the Texans to finish as RB4. Nick Chubb got it done early before fading in the second half as the Browns went pass heavy against the Packers to finish as RB5 and Chase Edmonds (RB6) gained 127 yards-from-scrimmage with James Conner out of the lineup. David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Rashaad Penny, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Singletary and Ronald Jones II rounded out the RB1's for week. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 16 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Zach Wilson, N.Y. Jets

Week 16 Stats: 14-of-22 passing, 102 yards, 1 TD, 4 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD

Zach Wilson threw the ball for 4.6 yards-per-attempt against the Jaguars in Week 16 which is absolutely terrible. However, he was able to rip off a 52-yard run for a score which salvaged his day, landing him at QB4 on the week. Wilson has scored on the ground two weeks in a row, but he's never carried the ball more than four times in any game. Wilson has also failed to eclipse 300 yards through the air and has only thrown two touchdowns three times this season.

Bottom Line: Zach Wilson is not very good at this point in his career, and you should not trust him in Week 17 against the Buccaneers unless you're extremely desperate. The Buccaneers give up a lot of fantasy points to quarterbacks but you need to wonder if the Jets offensive line will give Wilson any time to throw.

Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears

Week 16 Stats: 2 targets, 2 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

Jimmy Graham scored a touchdown with about a minute left in regulation which put the Bears in position to go for two and take the lead over the Seahawks. Cole Kmet is still the tight end to own in Chicago, as he played 95.9% of their offensive snaps compared to just 28.4% for Graham, and he saw five targets compared to just two for Graham.

Bottom Line: Jimmy Graham's season-high for yardage is 34 yards and Week 16 was the first time he scored since 13. Leave Graham on the waiver wire unless you're extremely desperate for a tight end, because the best you can hope to get out of him is 30 yards and a touchdown.

Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills

Week 16 Stats: 12 targets, 11 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD

Isaiah McKenzie was filling in for Cole Beasley who was on the COVID list and he absolutely went off. McKenzie played a season-high 84.8% of the Bills offensive snaps and took advantage of a great opportunity against Myles Bryant in the Patriots secondary. McKenzie's big day wasn't necessarily a surprise given he's come through in the recent past when asked to fill in as the Bills slot receiver, but I don't think anybody envisioned him finishing as WR4. Gabriel Davis might be back next week so this may have been a one-week thing.

Bottom Line: Gabriel Davis typically backs up all the wide receiver positions so if he returns to the lineup in Week 17 and Emmanuel Sanders is healthy, Isaiah McKenzie will likely see his snaps dip back down to his normal role. Hold onto McKenzie until we get some news on Davis.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16 Stats: 13 targets, 12 catches, 194 yards, 2 TD

The Ravens secondary was depleted heading into the Week 16 and they suffered more injuries within the game which left them extremely short handed. Higgins proceeded to absolutely go off, with his biggest play coming on a 52-yard bomb from Joe Burrow.

Bottom Line: The Bengals play the Chiefs in Week 17 which should be a very high scoring contest so Higgins should be viable. Higgins should see Mike Hughes in coverage on most of his routes this week who he has a six-inch height advantage over. The Chiefs have been very tough against the run lately which means the Bengals will likely need to lean on Joe Burrow's arm to win this game.

Justin Jackson, L.A. Chargers

Week 16 Stats: 11 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD, 9 targets, 8 catches, 98 yards

Austin Ekeler missed Week 16 due to COVID and Justin Jackson stepped into the lead-back role, playing a season-high 45 snaps (72.6%). Jackson was expected to run through the Texans and their horrible rushing defense, and he did score twice on the ground, but he also crushed the Texans in the passing game.

Bottom Line: Hold on to Jackson until Ekeler clears the COVID protocols. If Ekeler is active in Week 17 then Jackson is nothing more than a handcuff.

Dare Ogunbowale, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 16 Stats: 17 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD, 4 targets, 2 catches, 15 yards

Carlos Hyde was inactive for the Jaguars this weekend which left them a little thin at running back. James Robinson went down in the first quarter with a torn achilles which meant Dare Ogunbowale was the next man up and he played 60 snaps (82.2%). Prior to Week 16, Ogunbowale hadn't played more than 15 snaps in any game.

Bottom Line: Keep an eye on the Jaguars transactions this week because if they don't add any early down running backs of note, Ogunbowale may be in for a similar role in Week 17. If Carlos Hyde is active in Week 17 then Hyde would assume early down work while Ogunbowale would likely assume passing down work.

Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans

Week 16 Stats: 22 carries, 149 yards, 2 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches

David Johnson missed Week 16 which left the Texans with Rex Burkhead as their lead back. Burkhead played more than 60% of the Texans offensive snaps for the second week in a row and broke off several long runs. As of Tuesday morning, David Johnson is still on the COVID list.

Bottom Line: Let's see which Texans running backs are healthy heading into Week 17. This is a fluid situation, but the Texans play the 49ers in Week 17 who have given up some decent games to running backs so Burkhead may be viable if David Johnson misses another game.

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