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In my group of friends, I am known for making outlandish claims that, most of the time, even I don't believe. It antagonizes them because they know I'm just complaining about how Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill is going to finish with zero receptions because it's 10 minutes into the first quarter and he hasn't caught a pass yet, even though I know my claim is absurd. It's kind of my gimmick.
It is only fitting that I convert my ridiculous claims into actual bold takes posted on the internet for the world to see. You will surely scoff at many of these now and start preparing for how you plan to lambaste me in December when none of them pan out. Nevertheless, I am planning the exact same thing for all of you when I bat 1.000.
If nothing else, bold predictions are fun. There's a little downside to them because they're not supposed to be likely outcomes, but when you get one correct, the feeling is euphoric. I will preface my claims with this: I truly believe everything I say here. I will put my money where my mouth is and if you ask, I will gladly show you the proof in my drafts that I follow through on what I think.
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Jason Katz's 2019 Bold Predictions Recap
In 2019, I had the privilege of being able to boast about my 2018 bold predictions being pretty darn good. The 2019 predictions...not so much.
- Kyler Murray finishes as a top-six fantasy QB.
- Ezekiel Elliott doesn't play.
- Curtis Samuel outscores D.J. Moore.
- Leonard Fournette plays at least 14 games and is a top-eight RB1.
- Patrick Mahomes has another monster year.
- The most valuable rookie RB isn't Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, or David Montgomery.
As you can see, I got the Fournette one correct (he was the RB9, but I'm taking it) and I was on the right track with Kyler Murray being useful, but the other four weren't even close. Let's see if I can do better this season.
Cam Newton finishes as a top-six fantasy QB
I know I'm not the only one making this claim, but fantasy gamers are the ones making it possible by continuing to sleep on Cam Newton. Although his ADP is creeping up, Newton is still going outside the top 15 quarterbacks. He's still just 31 years old and has two overall QB1 finishes on his resume. We've seen Bill Belichick make water out of wine with Matt Cassel, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jacoby Brissett. Imagine what he can do with a healthy Cam Newton as New England looks to stay in the playoff picture in 2020.
D'Andre Swift is a top-15 RB
Somehow, I've found myself as a huge D'Andre Swift supporter. I don't think Swift is a special talent. I don't think the Lions are the greatest possible situation for him. All in all, I just don't get the hate. Swift has an ADP as a high RB3. He typically goes in the fifth or sixth round. Umm...why? Do people really think he's not going to be the primary back for Detroit and not touch the ball 250 times?
Kerryon Johnson is the quintessential replacement-level running back. And I'm not even sure if the Lions view Johnson that highly. They went out of their way to push LeGarrette Blount over Johnson in 2018 and then after 2019, they spent a second-round pick on Swift. The Lions could use Johnson, but it's likely they are not going to use him in anything other than a backup role this season, paving the way for Swift to touch the ball far more than his price is accounting for.
Chase Edmonds outscores Kenyan Drake
On this one, I am certainly accounting for all possibilities. The only way this can happen is if Kenyan Drake gets hurt. I'm quite confident that Drake will be the feature running back for the Arizona Cardinals until he isn't. In order for Chase Edmonds to usurp Drake, the latter will have to open the door for the former. This will require Drake to miss a game or two and Edmonds producing (which we know he can). This prediction does come with the injury caveat.
However, where the prediction is bold is in the fact that if Edmonds gets an opportunity at the feature role, he won't give it up. If Drake does miss a couple of games, I believe he will come back in the same role Edmonds came back to last season after he pulled his hamstring and the Cardinals traded for Drake.
Leonard Fournette plays 14+ games, finishes as top-eight RB
I know what you're thinking - isn't this the exact same prediction as last season? And it's also the one I got correct? Yes and yes. How is it possible that I could predict a running back drafted as a mid RB2 finish as an RB1, he does so, and the door is still open for the exact same prediction to be bold the following season? I don't know.
There are a few things in fantasy football that don't make sense this season. One of them is the hate for Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette.
Fournette played 15 games last season, sitting out in only a meaningless Week 17 game. He carried the ball 265 times and saw 100 targets. That's 365 opportunities to touch the ball. Even if we drop that down to 300 and slice Fournette's 100 targets in half, how is he not an RB1? He's been in the NFL three seasons and has never finished as anything other than an RB1.
I don't think there is another running back in the league with more job security than Fournette. No running back depth chart is weaker behind a locked-in starter.
Last year, I said, "I can go on about Fournette's ability and his underrated receiving skills and the improved offense, but none of that really matters. If Fournette stays healthy, he will be an RB1." What's changed? Chris Thompson? If you think a 30-year-old, injury-prone, washed up, satellite back matters at all, you need to reevaluate your process. There are exactly zero threats to Fournette's status as a workhorse.
Even if the Jaguars are terrible, Fournette only experiences modest touchdown regression, and he continues to be inefficient. Fournette will be an RB1 on volume alone. I think he will be better. Smash draft in round three every time.
D.J. Chark finishes as a WR1
It's only fair that I replace a null Jaguars prediction with another Jaguars prediction. I am enamored with D.J. Chark. The third year receiver averaged 15.6 ppg last season over 14 games (I always exclude Week 17). For context, Kenny Golladay averaged 15.9 ppg and he goes around the second/third round turn. Yet, Chark's ADP is in the fifth round and you can reliably get him in the fourth? Chark is not only a steal at his ADP, but he's so valuable you can reach one, if not two rounds and still get a good deal.
The Jaguars are in full tank mode. While management is trying to lose, the players are not going to just roll over. Gardner Minshew is more than willing to just chuck it up to Chark and Chark profiles as a true alpha WR1. There is no one to compete with Chark for targets and Minshew may attempt 600 passes this season. Chark has a real shot at 140 targets with an outside chance of leading the NFL in targets. I want Chark in every league.
Diontae Johnson outscores JuJu Smith-Schuster
As I'm writing this, Diontae Johnson hasn't practiced in a week due to a calf injury. If he's hurt, pretend this never happened. Assuming he's healthy, I'm going with Diontae to be a better fantasy receiver than JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of Pittsburgh Steelers wideouts.
By no means do I hate JuJu, but he is a bit overrated in that despite the bad quarterback play in 2019, he legitimately did not play well. Diontae did, he actually led the league in target separation, and does actually remind me of Antonio Brown. JuJu may just be more suited to the WR2 role. I love Diontae Johnson and I'm going out on a limb for him here.
Bryan Edwards finishes as a top-36 WR
I have a secret: Bryan Edwards > Henry Ruggs III on the Las Vegas Raiders. Edwards broke out at age 17 and profiles much more like an alpha WR1 than Ruggs. I don't dislike Ruggs, but he's going to disappoint in the NFL to the extent that he is not going to be Tyreek Hill, which is kind of what he has to do in order to justify his draft capital.
Edwards has been getting rave reviews at camp and with the news about Tyrell Williams tearing his labrum again, the stage is set for the rookie to start Week 1 and never give the job back. Regardless of how bad QB Derek Carr is and the fact that he will be benched for Marcus Mariota at some point, Edwards has a real good shot at 100 targets and is talented enough to at least be a WR3 on that volume. Given his cost of being literally free, Edwards is the ideal last player on your bench this season.
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