2020 Offseason Starting Pitcher Rankings (Part 2) - Fantasy Baseball Mixed Leagues

We continue with our analysis of the early 2020 fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings by looking at the middle tiers. To read part one, click right here.

After a record-setting year for offense and a sense among the industry that 2020 likely won't be dramatically different, being able to navigate the ever-murkier waters of starting pitching will continue to be of prime importance. Looking at last year's earnings at the position, stark tiers quickly reveal themselves, with two players earning over $40, followed by five players who earned over $20, and 13 who earned over $10. That's only 20 pitchers total who earned double-digit dollars in 12-team leagues, followed by a big mess of players who didn't. Now that's what I call murky.

Let's dive back into our pitching ranks and take a look at the players who are bound to be part of fantasy rotations but may come with some baggage in 2020.

 

Starting Pitcher Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (December)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season.

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Nick G	Riley
1	1	Gerrit Cole	SP	8	7	11
2	1	Justin Verlander	SP	12	10	15
3	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	15	13	10
4	2	Max Scherzer	SP	14	18	19
5	2	Walker Buehler	SP	25	21	24
6	2	Jack Flaherty	SP	28	24	31
7	2	Shane Bieber	SP	27	31	36
8	2	Mike Clevinger	SP	39	25	33
9	2	Blake Snell	SP	40	26	41
10	2	Stephen Strasburg	SP	29	36	46
11	2	Chris Sale	SP	34	49	37
12	2	Clayton Kershaw	SP	43	41	49
13	3	Charlie Morton	SP	58	45	65
14	3	Patrick Corbin	SP	62	64	57
15	3	Luis Severino	SP	50	67	69
16	3	Zack Greinke	SP	53	83	52
17	3	Aaron Nola	SP	56	48	87
18	3	Luis Castillo	SP	47	59	91
19	3	Yu Darvish	SP	72	61	64
20	3	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	76	77	54
21	3	Tyler Glasnow	SP	84	74	66
22	3	Lucas Giolito	SP	59	99	72
23	3	James Paxton	SP	91	70	70
24	4	Shohei Ohtani	DH/SP	74	68	100
25	4	Chris Paddack	SP	95	95	73
26	4	Corey Kluber	SP	64	126	77
27	4	Noah Syndergaard	SP	78	110	94
28	4	Jose Berrios	SP	83	118	99
29	4	Brandon Woodruff	SP	116	102	103
30	4	Mike Soroka	SP	119	133	79
31	4	Carlos Carrasco	SP	131	106	112
32	4	Dinelson Lamet	SP	154	91	118
33	5	Trevor Bauer	SP	132	144	114
34	5	Zac Gallen	SP	122	146	123
35	5	Sonny Gray	SP	139	159	96
36	5	Madison Bumgarner	SP	137	165	119
37	5	Frankie Montas	SP/RP	158	124	145
38	5	David Price	SP	134	172	132
39	5	Max Fried	SP	155	128	159
40	5	Lance Lynn	SP	128	136	186
41	5	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	126	162	188
42	5	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	152	175	163
43	5	Jesus Luzardo	SP	165	153	173
44	5	Robbie Ray	SP	167	194	138
45	5	Zack Wheeler	SP	168	201	134
46	6	Mike Minor	SP	157	206	157
47	6	Carlos Martinez	SP/RP	188	196	150
48	6	Kyle Hendricks	SP	161	198	179
49	6	Matthew Boyd	SP	171	178	194
50	6	Caleb Smith	SP	176	184	183
51	6	Domingo German	SP	187	190	167
52	6	Sean Manaea	SP	166	182	198
53	6	Marcus Stroman	SP	169	227	169
54	6	Luke Weaver	SP	179	223	174
55	6	Julio Urias	SP/RP	184	187	210
56	6	Andrew Heaney	SP	189	155	240
57	6	German Marquez	SP	191	217	189
58	6	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	210	243	175
59	7	Dustin May	SP	221	211	212
60	7	Lance McCullers Jr.	SP	213	208	251
61	7	Kenta Maeda	SP/RP	235	234	206
62	7	Cole Hamels	SP	229	277	170
63	7	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	231	203	258
64	7	Jose Urquidy	SP	211	246	264
65	7	Miles Mikolas	SP	263	260	199
66	7	Jake Odorizzi	SP	223	267	235
67	7	Brendan McKay	SP	247	238	243
68	7	Dallas Keuchel	SP	245	282	217
69	8	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	254	241	296
70	8	Dylan Cease	SP	240	#N/A	304
71	8	Dakota Hudson	SP	297	#N/A	250
72	8	Griffin Canning	SP	246	262	318
73	8	Michael Kopech	SP	268	250	313
74	8	Joey Lucchesi	SP	294	292	255
75	8	Mike Fiers	SP	269	271	311
76	8	John Means	SP	360	294	204
77	8	Jon Gray	SP	282	#N/A	294
78	8	Joe Musgrove	SP	327	#N/A	252
79	8	A.J. Puk	SP	334	#N/A	249
80	8	Yonny Chirinos	SP	367	284	227
81	9	Zach Plesac	SP	293	297	298
82	9	Garrett Richards	SP	298	299	#N/A
83	9	Jose Quintana	SP	228	296	372
84	9	Steven Matz	SP	258	264	376
85	9	Mitch Keller	SP	283	291	324
86	9	Ross Stripling	SP/RP	295	276	335
87	9	Chris Archer	SP	276	279	353
88	9	Rich Hill	SP	296	269	347
89	9	Anibal Sanchez	SP	277	289	348
90	9	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	308	#N/A	#N/A
91	9	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	312	#N/A	309
92	9	Nate Pearson	SP	373	256	#N/A
93	10	Chad Green	SP/RP	322	288	352
94	10	Homer Bailey	SP	326	#N/A	#N/A
95	10	Jon Lester	SP	375	#N/A	281
96	10	Brent Honeywell Jr.	SP	#N/A	#N/A	331
97	10	Adrian Houser	SP	356	#N/A	308
98	10	Nathan Eovaldi	SP/RP	447	#N/A	224
99	10	Pablo Lopez	SP	355	#N/A	320
100	10	Sandy Alcantara	SP	380	#N/A	305
101	10	Casey Mize	SP	350	#N/A	340
102	10	MacKenzie Gore	SP	392	#N/A	299
103	10	Jordan Lyles	SP	390	#N/A	303
104	10	Jeff Samardzija	SP	412	#N/A	286
105	10	Ian Anderson	SP	353	#N/A	#N/A
106	10	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	389	#N/A	321
107	10	Wade Miley	SP	381	#N/A	329
108	10	Johnny Cueto	SP	357	#N/A	#N/A
109	10	Forrest Whitley	SP	358	#N/A	#N/A
110	10	Tyler Mahle	SP	362	#N/A	#N/A
111	10	Merrill Kelly	SP	370	#N/A	358
112	11	Cal Quantrill	SP	371	#N/A	#N/A
113	11	Alex Young	SP	453	#N/A	289
114	11	Josh Lindblom	SP	385	#N/A	364
115	11	Julio Teheran	SP	384	#N/A	366
116	11	J.A. Happ	SP	377	#N/A	375
117	11	Jordan Yamamoto	SP	376	#N/A	#N/A
118	11	Jakob Junis	SP	383	#N/A	#N/A
119	11	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	428	#N/A	342
120	11	Aaron Civale	SP	491	285	#N/A
121	11	Sixto Sanchez	SP	391	#N/A	#N/A
122	11	Michael Pineda	SP	413	#N/A	370
123	11	Marco Gonzales	SP	393	#N/A	#N/A
124	11	Trevor Richards	SP/RP	433	#N/A	360
125	11	Kyle Gibson	SP	457	#N/A	337
126	11	Rick Porcello	SP	399	#N/A	#N/A
127	12	Alex Wood	SP	401	#N/A	#N/A
128	12	Freddy Peralta	SP/RP	402	#N/A	#N/A
129	12	Matt Manning	SP	407	#N/A	#N/A
130	12	Zach Eflin	SP	490	#N/A	330
131	12	Deivi Garcia	SP	410	#N/A	#N/A
132	12	Drew Pomeranz	SP/RP	415	#N/A	#N/A
133	12	Randy Dobnak	SP/RP	421	#N/A	#N/A
134	12	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	513	#N/A	336
135	12	Logan Webb	SP	429	#N/A	#N/A
136	12	Anthony Kay	SP	430	#N/A	#N/A
137	12	Tyler Beede	SP	439	#N/A	#N/A
138	12	Kolby Allard	SP	441	#N/A	#N/A
139	12	Brad Keller	SP	444	#N/A	#N/A
140	12	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	445	#N/A	#N/A
141	12	Adam Wainwright	SP	452	#N/A	#N/A
142	12	Chase Anderson	SP	455	#N/A	#N/A
143	12	Joe Ross	SP	456	#N/A	#N/A
144	12	Dylan Bundy	SP	458	#N/A	#N/A
145	13	Jose Urena	SP	460	#N/A	#N/A
146	13	Mike Montgomery	SP/RP	463	#N/A	#N/A
147	13	Jake Arrieta	SP	464	#N/A	#N/A
148	13	Drew Smyly	SP	467	#N/A	#N/A
149	13	Spencer Turnbull	SP	471	#N/A	#N/A
150	13	Collin McHugh	SP/RP	473	#N/A	#N/A
151	13	Andrew Cashner	RP/SP	477	#N/A	#N/A
152	13	Trevor Williams	SP	478	#N/A	#N/A
153	13	Chris Bassitt	SP	481	#N/A	#N/A
154	13	Vince Velasquez	SP	483	#N/A	#N/A
155	13	Michael Fulmer	SP	484	#N/A	#N/A
156	13	Jose Suarez	SP	485	#N/A	#N/A
157	13	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	489	#N/A	#N/A
158	13	Asher Wojciechowski	SP/RP	495	#N/A	#N/A
159	13	Martin Perez	SP	499	#N/A	#N/A
160	13	Eric Lauer	SP	500	#N/A	#N/A
161	13	Kevin Gausman	SP	502	#N/A	#N/A
162	13	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	503	#N/A	#N/A
163	13	Tanner Roark	SP	506	#N/A	#N/A
164	13	Mike Leake	SP	507	#N/A	#N/A
165	13	Tony Gonsolin	SP	508	#N/A	#N/A
166	13	Taijuan Walker	SP	510	#N/A	#N/A
167	13	Elieser Hernandez	SP/RP	515	#N/A	#N/A
168	13	Gio Gonzalez	SP	516	#N/A	#N/A
169	13	Ivan Nova	SP	517	#N/A	#N/A
170	13	Zach Davies	SP	519	#N/A	#N/A

 

Tier Four

I already didn't like Corey Kluber in 2020 and his recent trade to Texas Rangers certainly didn't improve my outlook. It's easy to just write off Kluber's 2019 as a lost season, with the veteran suffering a broken forearm after being hit by a comebacker in May, but prior to his injury, the right-hander was already having a rough start to his year, posting a 5.80 ERA and just a 22.6% K-rate in 35.2 innings. And while Kluber was worth 5.5 WAR in 2018, he did struggle some after posting a 2.02 ERA through his first 12 starts in May and June, putting up a 3.45 ERA over his last 130.1 innings. This might have had something to do with Kluber's formerly elite cutter getting smashed after having only a .235 wOBA against it in the first half of 2018. That number jumped to a .368 wOBA in the second half and a .347 wOBA in his short 2019 season. If Kluber is now going to have an average cutter to pair with his ever-trashier fastball, it's hard for me to get behind him being a top-20 option in 2020.

We're all definitely sure Noah Syndergaard is still a top-25 pitcher?

2018: 154.1 IP/3.03 ERA/1.21 WHIP/3.55 SIERA/24.1% K%

2019: 197.2 IP/4.28 ERA/1.23 WHIP/4.02 SIERA/24.5% K%

Syndergaard earned $5.70 in 2018 and $(4.40) last year. Parentheses mean negative. These are just facts.

Let's cover one more pitcher who's been mediocre in a perfectly consistent way the past two years. Jose Berrios had a 3.68 ERA in 200.1 innings a year after having a 3.84 ERA in 192.1 innings in 2018, with remarkably similar lines across the board. Berrios was also slightly worse in notable categories, with his 23.2% K-rate down two points over the year previous, while carrying a 4.28 SIERA that was up from a 3.80 in 2018. On the fantasy side, Berrios earned $3.90 last year, finishing as the #36 pitcher according to the Fangraphs auction calculator, after earning just $1.70 the year prior. I get that he's still only 25-years old but I'm having trouble seeing where a big improvement could come from, considering the aforementioned similarity of his career thus far, along with a pitch-mix and velocity that have also both stayed near-constant.

Ending the tier on a positive note, how about the man with one of the coolest sounding names in baseball, Dinelson Lamet? A great example of how injuries can make fantasy players forget about previous promises of a breakout, Lamet missed all of 2018 after having Tommy John surgery in the spring, returning this season to make 14 starts for the Padres and going 3-5 with a 4.08 ERA over 73 innings. That was nothing to write home about but keep in mind that prior to TJ-surgery, Lamet entered 2018 as a popular breakout pick, with a 216 ADP in NFBC, after striking out 139 batters in 117 innings in 2017. Getting back to the majors in early July, Lamet got right back to doing what he does best; striking fools out with extreme prejudice, with 105 of the 313 batters he faced going down to his primo whiffery. That was good for a 33.6% K-rate - a five-point increase from his mark in 2017 - and Lamet also dropped to a 9.6% walk-rate, from an 11.1% mark in 2017.

He'll need to continue to improve on his control if he wants to take the next step to stardom but seeing a drop in his walk-rate after TJ-surgery is certainly a positive sign. And one final piece of cheese to entice you; Lamet's nasty curveball (which may just be a different version of his nasty slider) has a 22.8% SwStr that trails only Blake Snell for the highest mark among starters who threw at least 300 hooks in 2019. The only thing I dislike about the 27-year-old right-hander is that his stock is rising too fast, as he currently sits at a 111 ADP in NFBC Champions leagues in December.

 

Tier Five

Remember when Madison Bumgarner was one of the best pitchers in baseball, both on the field and in fantasy? But alas, 'twas a dirtbike that did MadBum in, and the big left-hander with the big twang just hasn't been the same since injuring his AC joint in 2017. Bumgarner was at least back to being the workhorse in 2019 that he was when he pitched over 200 innings from 2011-2017, finishing with the year with 207.2 innings pitched, but his previous stuff didn't come with the innings. Bumgarner's 24.1% K-rate was his highest since 2016 but that's still down from the 27% rates that he was running in 2015-2016 and his 4.15 SIERA was the second-highest of his career and was over a run higher than what he had during the prime years of 2014-2016.

Having recently signed a five-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Bumgarner now moves out of the friendly pitcher-confines of Oracle Park, where the home-cooking has been much more kind to the veteran hurler, as he posted a .261 wOBA at home versus a .349 wOBA on the road in 2019. After earning just $4.6 in 12-team leagues in 2019 (good for the #40 pitcher and #192 player overall) and being projected by Steamer to barely be a top-75 starting pitcher in 2020, I'm having a hard time putting any sort of trust in Bumgarner, even though he's been one of my favorite players ever since he and his now-wife gave each other prime horseflesh for their wedding gifts.

An elite eater of innings (and possibly ham), I believe in the Lance Lynn-aissance after the former Cardinal went full ham in his first full year at his new home in Texas, going 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA over 208.1 innings and posting a 6.8 fWAR that trailed only Gerrit Cole and Jacob Degrom. Dig a little deeper, though, and a picture of a different pitcher than the previous six years starts to emerge. Lynn went from a 22.4% K-rate and 9.2% walk-rate for his career to a 28.1% K-rate and 6.7% walk-rate in 2019, while increasing his swinging-strike rate from 9.3% to 12.5% in 2019.

As is often the case with large changes in a pitcher's performance, Lynn saw significant changes to his pitch-mix and fastball velocity in 2019, as he had in years previous. Throwing primarily a sinker, cutter, and curveball to go with his fastball, Lynn dropped his sinker usage to 17% in 2019, after it sat at 33% in 2018 and 43% in 2017. The sinker was replaced by a nine-point increase in the use of his four-seamer and a four-point increase in his cutter. Add that to an average fastball velocity of 94.7 mph that was up from 93.8 mph in 2018 and 92.4 mph in 2017, and I'm getting more on board for a repeat performance in 2020.

I get Robbie Ray as a strikeout play, with the 28-year-old lefthander having been a K-machine his entire career. You can basically pencil him in for about a 31% K-rate and 12 K/9 but I just can't stomach the 1.35 WHIP that's probably coming too. Ray was fantastic in 2017, posting his normal strikeout rates and a 2.89 ERA, but barring a large amount of batted ball luck, or a dramatic improvement in skills, I can't really squint and see that ERA ever coming back, given the state of his ERA evaluators as of late.

2018 - 3.93 ERA/4.31 FIP/3.77 xFIP/3.89 SIERA, 1.35 WHIP

2019 - 4.34 ERA/4.29 FIP/3.76 xFIP/4.02 SIERA, 1.34 WHIP

Kind of feels like Ray is going to have an ERA over four, right? And I also find it concerning that his fastball velocity dipped for the second year in a row, averaging 92.4 mph in 2019, after it averaged 93.7 mph in 2018, and 94.2 mph in 2017. Given all these negative markers, I have a hard time believing that Ray will earn you a fantasy profit at his current 147 ADP in NFBC Champions leagues.

 

Tier Six

Matthew Boyd is another guy who will likely be doing some swift rising up my ranking, as the 28-year-old made big strides in 2019 and seems poised for a big breakout in 2020. On a terrible Tigers team, Boyd went 9-12 over a career-high 185.1 innings, posting a mediocre 4.56 ERA. However, his 3.61 SIERA was almost a full run lower and Boyd also gave up 1.89 HR/9 - his highest mark since throwing 57 innings in his 2015 rookie year - a number that was buoyed by an 18.2% HR/FG, after he ran rates under 13% for the previous three years.

Putting those numbers aside, the biggest reason to I'm believing in a big Boyd breakout is the 30.2% K-rate in 2019 that was up from an 18.2% K-rate for his career prior. How'd he do it? This seems to be a classic example of pitcher saying, "maybe I should stop throwing my worst pitches and throw my best ones instead", with Boyd almost completely junking the sinker he had started using heavily in 2017-18. He threw it 24% of the time in 2017 - with a 6.50 xFIP and a .395 wOBA against - and 15% in 2018, resulting in an even worse 7.20 xFIP and a .458 wOBA. The sinker then dropped to 4% in 2019, with Boyd's slider ascending to his primary secondary pitch, with a career-high 36% usage.

But the old slidepiece didn't just get its usage upped, Boyd also altered its movement and the pitch now has almost double the horizontal movement as it did in 2018. The differences in results on the pitch were stark, with the slider's swinging-strike rate jumping four points to 19.8% and it's whiff-per-swing rising from 30.9% in 2018 to 41.8% in 2019. That may not be Patrick Corbin-levels of nastiness but the SwStr% is the 15th-highest among starters who threw at least 20% sliders in 2019 and his whiff-per-swing ranked ninth.  And giving further regard to my positive outlook on him, it certainly didn't hurt that his average fastball velocity went back up to 92.1 mph after sitting at 90.5 MPH in 2018. Boyd has a better team surrounding him 2020, a more effective pitch-mix, an increase in velocity, and an increasingly nasty slider. Sign me up.

I hear you Oakland fans; you want to believe that the 29.2 innings you got out of Sean Manaea at end of 2019 after he returned from shoulder surgery will be a harbinger for similar success in 2020. Manaea was lights out in his five starts in September - going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and a 27.5% K-rate - but when looking under the hood, I'm finding few reasons for him sustaining those levels of success. Beware the peripherals!

Season	IP	K%	BB%	BABIP	Hard%	HR/FB	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
2016	144.2	20.9%	6.2%	0.281	33.6%	13.7%	75.0%	3.86	4.08	3.96	4.04
2017	158.2	20.2%	8.0%	0.318	33.3%	10.6%	69.6%	4.37	4.10	4.53	4.51
2018	160.2	16.5%	4.9%	0.247	37.5%	12.3%	75.2%	3.59	4.26	4.32	4.46
2019	29.2	27.5%	6.4%	0.194	47.1%	10.7%	100.0%	1.21	3.42	3.98	3.86

One of these years is not like the other; one of these years does not belong. For me, it looks like Manaea's 2019 success was driven by some small-sample chicanery, with his .194 BABIP and 100% strand-rate jumping off the page and a career-high hard-hit rate certainly not helping his case. Optimistically thinking, perhaps his bump in strikeout-rate had something to do with a change in pitch-mix upon his return and could return in some fashion next season?

Manaea did come back throwing his slider 31% of the time (up from previous years in the 13-17% range) and decreasing his changeup usage to 15% (down from 24-31% previously) while increasing his fastball usage seven points to 63%, compared to 56% in 2018. However, his average fastball velocity also decreased for the third year in a row and now sits at just 89.8 mph, down from the 92.9 mph he averaged in his 2016 rookie season. Like Ray before him, I think you're likely getting around a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for Manaea in 2020 but unlike Ray, you're not getting a mess of strikeouts to go with it. His 167 ADP in December NFBC Champions leagues is just far too rich for me.

That's it for Part Two of our starting pitching rankings analysis. Check back soon for Part Three, where I'll dive for values in the lower tiers of arms.

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