August 20, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler takes a look at the Chicago Bears to see what kind of fantasy value they possess ahead of the 2016 fantasy football season.

This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.

The focus of today's piece will revolve around the Chicago Bears, a team whose offense has a tendency to be rather moody when it comes to fantasy.

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Offseason Moves

Offseason Acquisitions: RB Jordan Howard

Offseason Departures: RB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett

Player to Avoid: RB Jeremy Langford

Quarterback

Not only is Smokin' Jay Cutler one of my favorite football memes of all time but it also encapsulates his playing style perfectly. I say that in jest despite it being semi-true. Cutler kind of doesn't give a hoot on the field and that tends to get him into trouble more often than it should. He's always had a great deal of talent and has flirted with being a reliable fantasy starter in the past. Unfortunately, his mistakes and injury history tend to get the best of him.

Cutler hasn't played a full 16-game slate since 2009, missing a grand total of 15 games over that span. Even when he's on the field, his touchdown to interception ratio is usually higher than you'd like it to be with his best season coming in 2014. That was the year Cutler threw for 3,812 yards and 28 touchdowns with 18 interceptions. He also had nine fumbles that year so that's no bueno. That INT total was tied for the second highest of his career and it's all the more reason you'll want to avoid Cutler for fantasy purposes in 2016.

He's a solid NFL starting quarterback but his fantasy potential is capped by the combination of turnovers and tendency to miss games. All you should have to ponder with Cutler is can he run this offense efficiently enough to sustain the fantasy value of the players around him. The answer to that question is most certainly a yes, just don't expect any stardom from the man himself.

Running Backs

When Matt Forte ended up signing with the New York Jets, the seas parted at the prospect of Jeremy Langford getting a full workload. Then as time went on, people began to realize that Langford might not actually be as great as initially envisioned. I think the Langford hype started after a few nice moves on the field followed by the false notion that he's a "big play guy." In reality, his longest run of his rookie campaign was just 23 yards. Where he excelled was through the passing game as his only 100+ yard performances came due to huge totals through the air.

For me, that's where Langford's value truly lies. I think he's a better PPR back than he is one in standard scoring. I struggled with putting Langford in the "players to avoid" section since his standard scoring ADP is rather high for my taste. (ADP courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com) An early fifth rounder ahead of guys like Jonathan Stewart and Matt Jones, Langford is still overvalued even after the initial hype dying down a bit. On the flip side, I think the fifth round is fine for PPR formats so drafting Langford will have to depend on what kind of league your in. Personally, it's highly unlikely that I'll own Langford this year based on how many other players I prefer going in the same vicinity as him. Regardless of format, give me Drew Brees, Donte Moncrief, Travis Kelce and Eric Decker over Langford, and that's in addition to Stewart and Jones.

The other running back drawing attention in Chicago is fifth round rookie Jordan Howard. Similar to Langford, Howard was generating some buzz earlier this summer but that seems to have normalized as well. Howard is currently in contention with Ka'deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers for the backup gig, a role he shouldn't have an issue getting a hold of. Neither Carey nor Rodgers possess any true fantasy value at this point so Langford is the back to own if you're looking for a flier at RB in Chicago. I'm not brazen enough to suggest that this will be a time share if Howard excels but I don't think it's an open and shut case in regard to Langford being "the guy." Howard is worth a stash for sure.

Wide Receivers

Speaking of players I struggled with putting in the "players to avoid" section, Alshon Jeffery was dangerously close to being lumped in with his teammate Jeremy Langford. Jeffery was hobbled for most of last season due to lingering hamstring issues yet he still managed to rack up 807 yards and four touchdowns in just nine games. Whenever he's on the field, Jeffery is an absolute stud. The problem is, of course, he's one of the more concerning receivers when it comes to those ever-so-dangerous soft tissue injuries.

Whether it's his hamstring or groin, Jeffery keeps running into trouble with his lower extremeties. That's really the only reason why I almost want to avoid drafting him this year, emphasis on the word "almost." Luckily, it appears I'm in the majority here because Jeffery's ADP keeps trending downward, putting him in the early third round as of writing. That's the perfect spot for drafting Jeffery given his injury woes. Is he really a bigger injury risk than Sammy Watkins right now? Do his hamstrings scare you more than the prospect of Mark Sanchez throwing to Demaryius Thomas? To me, both of those are a no brainer; I'd rather take the chance on Jeffery than either of those guys. I'm not willing to lump him into the same class as his former teammate Brandon Marshall in the second round but I'd most certainly snag him early in the third.

One of the more exciting rookies heading into 2015, Kevin White ended up suffering a season ending leg injury and never saw the field. A year removed from surgery, White is poised to bolster Chicago's passing game and should be viewed as a low-end WR3 with considerable upside. This is a team that can easily sustain two fantasy relevant wide receivers at once as we've already seen Cutler do that with Marshall and Jeffery in the past. White might not be on their level right away but he can most certainly be a legit asset from day one. Don't forget, White was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft with Amari Cooper being the only receiver taken ahead of him. This is a star waiting to breakout so get ready to pounce on his eighth round ADP.

Tight End

With Martellus Bennett shipped off to New England, Zach Miller is the next man up at the tight end position for the Bears. Miller might not be getting the same amount of attention as the rest of the TEs being selected around him but he really should be. For those of you waiting on tight end, you're not going to win your league by taking Jason Witten in round 13. You know what you're getting out of Witten, sure, but his upside is firmly capped at this point in his career. If you're going to wait to be the last guy in your league to snag a TE, take a chance on Miller with the hopes that he slides right into the Martellus Bennett role. After all, the 12th or even 15th tight end off the board isn't going to ruin your team. Might as well swing for the fences at that point.

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