August 18, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler continues our breakdowns for the upcoming fantasy football season with a focus on the Carolina Panthers

This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year. This entry will focus on the defending NFC Champions, the Carolina Panthers.

Returning From Injury: WR Kelvin Benjamin

Player to reach for: RB Jonathan Stewart

Player to Avoid: WR Ted Ginn

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium NFL Subscription, only $29.99 for the full season. We have all the preseason tools to help win your drafts, and in-season tools to win your seasonal and daily leagues: Draft Kit, Premium Rankings, ADP Sleepers Tool, Matchup Ratings for every player, Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids.

Quarterback

Of the 10 most commonly owned players among fantasy championship teams last season, Carolina Panthers  quarterback Cam Newton did indeed make that list. On paper, that little stat sounds like scooping up the number one quarterback in fantasy is one of the keys to success, right? Well, that tidbit only tells part of the story. What it doesn't tell you is that although Killa Cam was on that list, he also just barely made the cut clocking in at exactly 10th, as he was on 19.6% of fantasy championship teams. More important than that, however, you have to remember that Cam Newton wasn't drafted anywhere close to the number one fantasy QB last season. In looking at 2015's ADP, (courtesy of our friends over at FantasyFootballCalculator.com) Cam was being drafted around the 10th round, roughly the 14th quarterback off the board.

I bring all that information up for two reasons. The first is rather straight forward; owning the number one fantasy QB isn't as easy as just selecting the consensus top ranked guy at the position. Second, considering the fact that quarterback is deeper than it's ever been in fantasy, the prospect of scooping up earlier than you should could cause you to miss out on key studs at other positions. You've heard me say this before but it bears repeating: waiting on QB doesn't mean you avoid taking one altogether until the very end of your draft. What it means is that you analyze the value of each position and wait until the appropriate time arrives. Don't be the guy who takes a quarterback in round one just because Cam Newton is projected to outscore them all. Wait until his value normalizes a little, somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round (depending on your format) then pounce if he's still hanging around.

Believe me, I love Cam as much as anyone else. In fact, I own him in a keeper league so by no means is this "hate." It's just pure value based drafting analysis. He's great, but he's just not worth going all in on when you can take RBs and WRs early, scoop up Ben Roethlisberger a few rounds later and still be plenty competitive.

Running Backs

Jonathan Stewart is entering a year in which he's easily one of the most undervalued running backs in fantasy. J Stew's 989 rushing yards with six touchdowns don't exactly jump off the page but those numbers were still good enough to finish as the year's 16th best fantasy RB in standard scoring. Two of the players that ranked ahead of Stewart, Darren McFadden and DeAngelo Williams, aren't likely to repeat their 2015 performances barring significant injuries to their respective team's starters. Throw in the added bonus that no team in the NFL had more rushing attempts than the Carolina Panthers in 2015, and you're looking at a rock solid RB2 who can end up as a borderline RB1 in a 12-team league.

Stewart's current ADP as a fifth rounder sounds fine on paper until you take a gander at some of the other running backs being taken before him. Jeremy Langford, Matt Jones, and DeMarco Murray are all being taken ahead of J Stew and none of those guys even have a clear path to being start worthy given their recent track records. Give me the guy who is the clearcut starter on his team and has shown as recently as last year that he can be a valuable asset to a fantasy team.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you prefer to construct your roster) the Panthers don't really have a running back that would qualify as a handcuff to Stewart. Yes, there's Fozzy Whitaker and Mike Tolbert but neither guy would be utilized the same way as J Stew. Whitaker is an undersized and unproven commodity in the NFL while Tolbert operates more like a goal-line fullback. Stewart is the only RB you want on this team and I'm willing to reach into the fourth round to ensure that he's on my roster.

Wide Receivers

Hopefully your league didn't draft early enough to be affected by Kelvin Benjamin's ACL tear last year. Benjamin is expected to be fully healthy and ready to rock for week one of 2016 which should prove fruitful for the Carolina offense. Strangely, the Panthers actually improved as a football team and shattered expectations with their 15-1 season without their number one wideout. There's two schools of thought here in regard to Kelvin's return. The first is the easy one in that Cam Newton getting his top receiver back means the offense will be even better than it was last year. The other, tougher to swallow viewpoint, is that since Carolina had absolutely no issue moving the ball without Benjamin that he's actually an overrated component of the team's offense. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle of the two stances.

With Benjamin being the most talented receiver on the roster by a mile, he’ll certainly be involved enough in the offense to finish the year as a dependable WR2. Given the way the offense operates as a whole, however, it’s tough to see him taking a leap into the WR1 territory some have speculated he can be. When Ted Ginn (whom we’ll get to ragging on in a second) is out there catching 10 touchdowns in a season, I think it’s safe to assume the team in question doesn’t exactly need a superstar receiver. They’re a run first team who can still make the most of their offensive weapons so look for Benjamin to be just fine as a middle of the pack WR2. Just don’t expect a next level performance out of him.

The aforementioned Ted Ginn did indeed end the year with 10 scores with 739 receiving yards to boot. Those numbers aren’t anywhere close to repeatable so look for a massive drop-off in the upcoming season. Unless you’re in a much deeper league, Ginn isn’t worth owning this year.

Tight End

Another main reason why Kelvin Benjamin won’t break out this year is because the most talented pass catcher on the team is still tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen is one of the most reliable options in the league so look for him to continue his dominance at the TE position. When it comes to drafting a tight end, though, I prefer to wait until the later rounds and grab whoever is leftover. I prefer hoarding all the running backs and receivers I can in the middle rounds rather than force myself to take a position I can acquire later in the draft. As good as Olsen is, taking him in the fourth round seems like a stretch when I can draft his much more undervalued teammate in Jonathan Stewart instead.

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