RADIO
Tonight, we have a smaller six-game slate on the Friday night hoops schedule. We're chugging right along as the season goes by and trying to find picks we like on a nightly basis.
I've been on an unfortunate slide recently. I came out super hot after the All-Star break and went 19-6 in 25 picks. Good streaks happen, but rarely do people sustain that type of pace. My last two articles have seen me fail to provide a winner, going 0-5. I'm still going to trust my process and have a positive record for the season.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, March 15. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Phoenix Suns (-9.5) at Charlotte Hornets (218.5 total)
Phoenix comes into this game on a back-to-back, losing by 15 in Boston last night. Normally, I would go against the team on their second night, but I like Phoenix to rebound tonight. The Suns currently sit 38–28, which is seventh in the West. They are 0.5 games up on the eighth-seeded Dallas Mavericks and 0.5 games back of the sixth-seeded Sacramento Kings. There are only 16 games left in the season, and this is a game Phoenix should be able to handle.
I'd like to think the Suns will come out focused, and I'll take them in the first half. Phoenix is 37-28-1 ATS in the opening 24 minutes of games this season and 18-12-1 on the road. I'm opting to take the halftime spread over the first-quarter spread because Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant all played 34+ minutes last night. I'll let them ease into the game rather than put pressure on them right away.
On the road this season, Phoenix is second in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating. The Suns are scoring 60.6 first-half points while shooting over 50 percent on FGAs and nearly 38 percent from three. I don't love to use the free-throw piece because it can fluctuate a lot from game to game, but the Suns are first in first-half FTA per game this season. Charlotte has been decent on defense lately, but I like the star power and urgency Phoenix should show early in this game. Booker (13.6) and Durant (13.5) both rank in the top ten in first-half points per game. I trust that duo, along with Beal, to get this done.
Team ball. pic.twitter.com/vMYAfLbtgz
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) March 15, 2024
The Pick: Suns First Half -5.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
Denver Nuggets (-10.5) at San Antonio Spurs (222 total)
After seeing how Denver played against the Heat in the first quarter on Wednesday, I'm backing them in the opening 12 minutes against the Spurs. Denver held Miami to 19 PTs on 9/24 (37.5%) field goal shooting and 1/6 from three. The Heat also did not attempt a free throw. This improved the Nuggets record to 18-15 ATS in first quarters on the road this season. Overall, Denver is 41-25 ATS in the opening quarter of games.
Mike Malone's team shoots better at home than on the road, but Denver is still shooting nearly 50 percent on FGAs and over 39 percent from three. The Nuggets defense has been great to start games. Only the New York Knicks are giving up fewer PPG in the opening quarter. Opponents are shooting 45 percent, and Denver has been disciplined, allowing the fewest free throws attempted. San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in their last ten first quarters at home. It's a really good run, but I'm trusting the Nuggets. The Spurs are still shooting under 47 percent on FGAs.
Nikola Jokic has averaged 11.5 first-quarter minutes in his last ten games and played the entire opening quarter against the Heat on Wednesday. In those ten games, he's averaging seven PTs, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. The two-time MVP is making an immediate impact and also getting help from teammates. Michael Porter Jr. (6.6), Jamal Murray (5.1), Aaron Gordon (4.4), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (3.3) are all averaging at least three first-quarter PTs. Denver has the second-best offensive rating and the third-best defensive rating to start games this season.
AG takes it all the way for the slam ‼️ pic.twitter.com/MiuVU6rtyx
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) March 13, 2024
The Pick: Nuggets First Quarter -3.5 (-112 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Orlando Magic (-8) at Toronto Raptors (217.5 total)
I don't like the Raptors' ability to score the basketball against the Magic tonight. Toronto comes into this game after losing 113-104 to the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday. Detroit has definitely improved on defense as of late, but they still rank around league average in defensive rating.
Orlando is fourth in defensive rating this season and sixth on the road. This team has consistently brought the defensive pressure, and they are one of six teams giving up less than 110 PPG this season. I look back on when I took the Hornets team total under 100.5 when they played the Magic on March 5. Charlotte finished with 89 PTs, and Orlando stifled them. Toronto shot 44 percent on FGAs and 9/36 (25%) in their loss on Wednesday.
The depleted Raptors team now goes up against a Magic team that is holding opponents to the fewest FGAs and the fourth fewest three-point attempts per game. Orlando also allows the fewest opponent REBs and ASTs per game. This would take away second-chance points and assist opportunities for the Raptors. I wouldn't exactly look at this Raptors team and see a bunch of players that can create for themselves against one of the NBA's best defenses.
here is that JI swat you ordered @JJudahIsaac https://t.co/m5RB2b2tS1 pic.twitter.com/B1QAItb4tp
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 14, 2024
The Pick: Raptors Team Total Under 104.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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