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Our Ben Rosener takes a look at the fantasy baseball impact of Jean Segura reportedly joining the Marlins and Corey Kluber reportedly signing in Boston with the Red Sox ahead of the upcoming season.
Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts next spring.
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues next spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with some free agency news, specifically free agency news that pertains to reported deals for a pair of veterans.
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Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Jean Segura Reportedly Signing With The Marlins
Jean Segura is reportedly staying in the National League East after agreeing to terms with the Miami Marlins, per a tweet from z101’s Hector Gomez on Wednesday. Gomez tweeted the following:
“BREAKING NEWS: Shortstop Jean Segura and Miami Marlins are in agreement on a two-year, $17 million contract. @z101digital @ZDeportes.”
Segura is coming off a solid season with the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies, hitting .277 with a .336 on-base percentage, 10 home runs, and 13 stolen bases in 387 plate appearances. It marked the first time since 2019 that the infielder has reached the double-digit steals mark, which is the key bit here for fantasy managers.
Because while Miami has a new coaching staff led by Skip Schumaker, the team is also coming off a 2022 campaign in which they logged the second-most steals in the Majors with 122. While Jon Berti accounted for 41 of those steals, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Joey Wendle, and Miguel Rojas all logged at least nine steals while Nick Fortes, Charles Leblanc, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, and Avisail Garcia combined for 21 total stolen bases.
In short, the Marlins weren’t afraid to send runners in 2022, and while it remains to be seen if Segura will reach the 44 steals he logged in his first full season in the league in 2013, he could very easily reach 20 to 25 steals as a member of the Marlins, especially with new rules introducing larger bases.
And that’s all without mentioning the infielder’s high floor where batting average and home runs are concerned. His .277 average this past season was actually his lowest in a full season in the past six years. Additionally, in those six full seasons, he’s also logged double-digit home runs in each of them, including in 2022 when he was limited to 387 plate appearances due to injury.
With such an established track record, fantasy managers essentially know what they’re getting with Segura, who comes with a rather reliable overall floor.
And while he is getting a notable downgrade in lineups, going from Philadelphia to Miami, he could offset that to a degree by hitting further up the lineup with the Marlins after seeing most of his plate appearances in the bottom half of the Phillies' batting order this past year. If the likes of Garcia, Chisholm Jr., and Jorge Soler all have bounce-back seasons, it could raise Segura’s fantasy ceiling considerably with more RBI and run-scoring chances.
Selling For Fantasy Baseball
Corey Kluber Reportedly Signing With The Red Sox
Like Segura, Kluber is reportedly staying in the same division as last season – just with a different team. Per a tweet from ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Wednesday, the veteran starting pitcher has reportedly agreed to a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox.
Passan tweeted the following on Wednesday morning:
“Right-hander Corey Kluber and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a one-year contract with a club option for 2024, sources familiar with the agreement tell ESPN.”
Kluber had his best full season in years for the Rays in 2022, logging a 4.34 ERA, a 3.57 FIP, and 139 strikeouts compared to just 21 walks allowed in 164 innings of work. The lack of walks last season was certainly ideal. The reported move to Fenway Park this season? That’s not quite as ideal, at least from a fantasy standpoint.
The 36-year-old was decidedly better at Tropicana Field than he was away from it last season.
Corey Kluber’s 2022 Home And Road Splits:
- Home: 87.1 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.24 FIP, .291 wOBA, nine home runs, 7.94 K/9, 1.03 BB/9
- Road: 76.2 IP, 5.05 ERA, 3.95 FIP, .341 wOBA, 11 home runs, 7.28 K/9, 1.29 BB/9
Really, moving away from Tropicana Field to most ballparks was going to represent a fantasy downgrade for Kluber, especially coming off a season in which his strikeouts per nine innings rate (7.63) dwindled to the lowest of his career. At the same time, his swinging strike percentage dropped to the third-lowest of his career (11.4%).
However, the move in the division to Boston is particularly unideal considering the diminished swing and miss metrics and the nature of Fenway Park.
Last season, per Statcast, only Coors Field and Great American Ballpark had a higher park factor where runs scored were more concerned than Fenway last season. The Red Sox at home finished sixth in home runs, third in doubles, second in total hits, and first in triples.
Elsewhere, Boston might not be able to provide Kluber with the double-digit pitcher win total that we’ve become accustomed to seeing him log, largely due to a significantly weakened lineup.
The Red Sox will head into the 2023 season with a mostly new-look lineup that features new addition Masataka Yoshida, as well as Trevor Story coming off a down year at the plate. It noticeably doesn’t feature the likes of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Vazquez, arguably Boston’s three best hitters not named Rafael Devers last season.
On a different team in 2023, Kluber could have been a quality option at the back end of drafts. Now, with his reported move to Boston, he looks more like a starter fantasy managers leave on the waiver wire and use primarily as a streaming option.
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