Updated Pitcher Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Mixed Leagues (July)

As if preseason rankings and projections weren't fickle enough already... Now, we are presented with a delayed, shortened season that has already seen several players opt out while others are uncertain to return after testing positive for COVID-19. For that reason, you won't see David Price or Felix Hernandez in these rankings and others are subject to change as news breaks daily.

Despite the challenges of playing ball in 2020, MLB is giving it a go. That means the fantasy baseball season will finally get underway as well. As always, RotoBaller is here to provide you with the most up-to-date player news and rankings. With our recently updated mixed-league rankings based on a 60-game season comes a position-by-position breakdown of the top risers, fallers, and outliers. First up is the crucial starting pitcher position.

Do aces still hold the same appeal as they did pre-pandemic when we assumed something closer to a full season? ATC projections guru Ariel Cohen thinks so and I certainly agree. Although starting pitcher is technically the deepest position in fantasy baseball, it still comes off as top-heavy in terms of value. A total of 55 SP are projected to bring a positive return of value. While some lower-tier pitchers could emerge as pleasant surprises, there is just as good a chance that hurlers drafted within the top-100 overall players will disappoint.

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Starting Pitcher Ranks - 5x5 Mixed (July)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season.

Rank	Tier	Player	Pos	Nick M	Nick G	Pierre	David	Riley
1	1	Gerrit Cole	SP	4	5	5	6	10
2	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	11	7	6	9	9
3	1	Max Scherzer	SP	16	10	14	17	18
4	2	Justin Verlander	SP	18	16	16	19	19
5	2	Walker Buehler	SP	22	20	11	18	23
6	2	Mike Clevinger	SP	20	32	22	30	29
7	2	Jack Flaherty	SP	31	25	19	31	34
8	2	Shane Bieber	SP	23	27	30	26	30
9	2	Stephen Strasburg	SP	29	46	18	39	39
10	2	Clayton Kershaw	SP	40	40	25	47	33
11	2	Charlie Morton	SP	45	44	56	46	48
12	2	Yu Darvish	SP	57	51	41	59	59
13	3	Luis Castillo	SP	54	66	34	61	40
14	3	Blake Snell	SP	58	43	74	42	47
15	3	Patrick Corbin	SP	56	75	45	56	49
16	3	Lucas Giolito	SP	61	73	48	52	65
17	3	Chris Paddack	SP	83	57	37	63	58
18	3	Zack Greinke	SP	67	101	46	72	64
19	3	Tyler Glasnow	SP	72	72	76	71	57
20	3	Shohei Ohtani	DH/SP	115	#N/A	100	54	96
21	3	Lance Lynn	SP	77	99	104	89	109
22	3	Aaron Nola	SP	103	87	92	99	74
23	3	Brandon Woodruff	SP	117	91	85	90	91
24	4	Frankie Montas	SP	93	83	122	98	119
25	4	Trevor Bauer	SP	111	104	65	119	83
26	4	Jose Berrios	SP	105	121	57	118	93
27	4	Carlos Carrasco	SP	81	102	121	114	106
28	4	James Paxton	SP	92	111	124	97	112
29	4	Corey Kluber	SP	89	137	117	92	99
30	4	Sonny Gray	SP	107	123	87	126	111
31	4	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	121	117	125	109	121
32	4	Julio Urias	SP	134	138	115	111	120
33	5	Jesus Luzardo	SP	127	165	116	108	101
34	5	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	167	133	130	101	130
35	5	Mike Soroka	SP	145	140	138	112	124
36	5	Zack Wheeler	SP	114	142	156	124	140
37	5	Madison Bumgarner	SP	141	179	95	122	127
38	5	Kenta Maeda	SP	130	148	105	164	161
39	5	Matthew Boyd	SP	143	110	141	154	139
40	5	Max Fried	SP	164	135	82	168	142
41	5	Kyle Hendricks	SP	147	146	143	120	153
42	5	Dinelson Lamet	SP	142	130	135	151	125
43	5	Lance McCullers Jr.	SP	123	141	147	171	157
44	5	Zac Gallen	SP	133	147	180	125	132
45	5	German Marquez	SP	188	208	88	158	149
46	6	Mike Minor	SP	190	183	119	167	156
47	6	Robbie Ray	SP	172	185	134	183	138
48	6	Andrew Heaney	SP	173	159	191	153	174
49	6	Luke Weaver	SP	160	202	163	173	172
50	6	A.J. Puk	SP	176	176	158	223	197
51	6	Carlos Martinez	SP	162	210	199	165	162
52	6	Jake Odorizzi	SP	219	178	195	145	190
53	6	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	193	230	165	170	181
54	6	Joe Musgrove	SP	175	166	173	277	182
55	6	Sean Manaea	SP	179	168	273	199	177
56	6	Jose Urquidy	SP	205	172	256	188	178
57	6	Mitch Keller	SP	214	248	169	191	199
58	6	Rich Hill	SP	180	177	255	225	255
59	7	Marcus Stroman	SP	234	212	205	187	195
60	7	Alex Wood	SP	197	227	179	251	217
61	7	Ross Stripling	SP/RP	203	198	263	224	265
62	7	Caleb Smith	SP	227	237	207	227	210
63	7	Dylan Bundy	SP	228	171	295	226	221
64	7	Yonny Chirinos	SP/RP	287	204	250	196	264
65	7	Jordan Montgomery	SP	215	254	206	300	342
66	7	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	241	193	157	402	198
67	7	Garrett Richards	SP	244	278	234	272	244
68	7	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	307	232	277	228	285
69	8	Brendan McKay	1B/SP	359	#N/A	217	210	330
70	8	Jon Gray	SP	277	289	211	280	209
71	8	Dallas Keuchel	SP	301	264	236	294	282
72	8	Josh Lindblom	SP	248	277	#N/A	301	268
73	8	Nate Pearson	SP	249	273	268	313	321
74	8	Nathan Eovaldi	SP/RP	329	265	276	239	239
75	8	Dylan Cease	SP	202	292	369	250	211
76	8	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	296	346	212	265	284
77	8	Drew Pomeranz	SP/RP	239	252	208	424	276
78	8	Freddy Peralta	SP/RP	352	274	224	273	466
79	8	Aaron Civale	SP	334	325	269	201	291
80	8	Cole Hamels	SP	253	290	279	317	270
81	9	Griffin Canning	SP	339	353	238	220	337
82	9	Hunter Harvey	SP	314	297	229	321	358
83	9	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	328	287	#N/A	282	275
84	9	Spencer Turnbull	SP	275	316	274	342	382
85	9	Miles Mikolas	SP	401	249	324	245	326
86	9	Sandy Alcantara	SP	279	421	200	335	302
87	9	Ryan Helsley	SP	292	340	349	259	#N/A
88	9	Steven Matz	SP	395	307	226	325	307
89	9	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	330	315	237	380	299
90	9	Adrian Houser	SP	252	268	381	377	290
91	9	John Means	SP	263	303	357	369	294
92	9	Kyle Gibson	SP/RP	303	348	272	383	398
93	10	Joey Lucchesi	SP	404	293	203	408	224
94	10	Kevin Gausman	SP/RP	286	308	412	306	417
95	10	J.A. Happ	SP	414	311	311	329	426
96	10	Chad Green	SP/RP	316	294	345	412	335
97	10	Anibal Sanchez	SP	300	319	327	435	309
98	10	Dustin May	SP	413	332	301	353	312
99	10	Pablo Lopez	SP	427	328	308	343	352
100	10	Jose Quintana	SP	419	411	227	#N/A	328
101	10	Marco Gonzales	SP	434	335	290	354	365
102	10	Homer Bailey	SP	313	352	398	352	450
103	10	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	362	338	337	384	327
104	10	Austin Voth	SP	304	327	407	387	378
105	10	Rick Porcello	SP	383	306	316	423	411
106	10	Spencer Howard	SP	291	323	531	287	277
107	10	Zach Plesac	SP	331	361	#N/A	398	288
108	10	MacKenzie Gore	SP	403	365	#N/A	337	404
109	10	Chris Bassitt	SP	317	321	415	425	390
110	10	Johnny Cueto	SP	398	424	228	436	403
111	10	Nick Burdi	SP	363	405	354	#N/A	#N/A
112	11	Justus Sheffield	SP	388	432	329	349	427
113	11	Mike Fiers	SP	420	330	397	358	368
114	11	Dakota Hudson	SP	344	382	383	397	343
115	11	Patrick Sandoval	SP	356	370	384	414	429
116	11	Bryan Abreu	SP	357	408	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
117	11	Julio Teheran	SP	439	415	300	385	386
118	11	Tyler Mahle	SP	351	403	362	428	416
119	11	Kwang-Hyun Kim	SP	342	347	448	427	393
120	11	Jordan Yamamoto	SP	433	471	259	403	#N/A
121	11	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	565	310	302	#N/A	465
122	11	Wade Miley	SP	373	417	409	399	372
123	11	Brad Keller	SP	478	472	260	#N/A	472
124	11	Jakob Junis	SP	435	375	411	#N/A	438
125	11	Jonathan Loaisiga	SP	430	398	399	401	#N/A
126	11	Drew Smyly	SP	353	410	458	413	498
127	12	Matt Shoemaker	SP	511	368	360	409	360
128	12	Jon Lester	SP	416	458	370	406	349
129	12	Jeff Samardzija	SP	425	478	347	438	341
130	12	Kyle Wright	SP	418	476	374	437	401
131	12	Tony Gonsolin	SP	521	402	400	382	459
132	12	Merrill Kelly	SP	415	480	410	#N/A	437
133	12	Gio Gonzalez	SP	463	466	385	#N/A	408
134	12	Domingo German	SP	#N/A	438	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
135	12	Danny Duffy	SP	489	457	405	#N/A	492
136	12	Zach Davies	SP	483	522	350	#N/A	#N/A
137	12	Trent Thornton	SP	558	467	333	#N/A	#N/A
138	12	Sean Newcomb	SP/RP	503	439	420	#N/A	#N/A
139	12	Collin McHugh	SP/RP	586	384	392	#N/A	#N/A
140	12	Nick Pivetta	SP/RP	508	442	414	#N/A	501
141	12	Kyle Freeland	SP	444	543	416	419	#N/A
142	12	Chad Kuhl	SP	424	487	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
143	12	Jordan Lyles	SP	429	461	481	#N/A	405
144	12	Michael Pineda	SP	592	#N/A	394	389	451
145	13	Daniel Ponce De Leon	SP	590	482	305	#N/A	#N/A
146	13	Asher Wojciechowski	SP/RP	432	488	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
147	13	Elieser Hernandez	SP/RP	513	495	493	341	#N/A
148	13	Martin Perez	SP	468	463	451	#N/A	500
149	13	Eric Lauer	SP	534	441	418	#N/A	#N/A
150	13	Forrest Whitley	SP	481	511	403	#N/A	419
151	13	Tanner Roark	SP	524	506	373	#N/A	#N/A
152	13	Adam Wainwright	SP	536	469	402	#N/A	#N/A
153	13	Michael Fulmer	SP	499	451	463	#N/A	#N/A
154	13	Michael Wacha	SP/RP	498	460	456	#N/A	#N/A
155	13	Logan Webb	SP	487	459	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
156	13	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	471	443	515	#N/A	#N/A
157	13	Randy Dobnak	SP/RP	472	481	#N/A	#N/A	458
158	13	Corbin Martin	SP	#N/A	#N/A	477	#N/A	#N/A
159	13	Chase Anderson	SP/RP	560	586	417	371	494
160	13	Brent Suter	SP	682	401	376	#N/A	#N/A
161	13	Jake Arrieta	SP	543	509	413	#N/A	#N/A
162	13	Zach Eflin	SP	594	#N/A	393	#N/A	448
163	13	Trevor Richards	SP/RP	520	468	#N/A	#N/A	471
164	13	Jose Urena	SP/RP	616	#N/A	386	#N/A	#N/A
165	13	Alex Young	SP	464	541	#N/A	#N/A	464
166	13	Trevor Williams	SP	577	537	396	#N/A	#N/A
167	13	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	569	440	#N/A	#N/A	446
168	13	Adam Plutko	SP	636	#N/A	375	#N/A	#N/A
169	13	Tyler Clippard	SP/RP	495	520	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
170	13	Vince Velasquez	SP/RP	589	#N/A	428	#N/A	489
171	13	Carlos Rodon	SP	501	534	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
172	13	Jhoulys Chacin	SP	461	575	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
173	13	Antonio Senzatela	SP	457	581	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
174	13	Mike Montgomery	SP/RP	584	512	468	#N/A	#N/A
175	13	Darwinzon Hernandez	SP	562	576	427	#N/A	#N/A
176	13	Kendall Graveman	SP	606	#N/A	446	#N/A	#N/A
177	13	Enyel De Los Santos	SP	#N/A	#N/A	529	#N/A	#N/A
178	13	Casey Mize	SP	585	551	467	#N/A	455
179	13	Taijuan Walker	SP	676	#N/A	395	#N/A	#N/A
180	13	Austin Pruitt	SP/RP	509	578	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
181	13	Daniel Norris	SP	619	#N/A	474	#N/A	#N/A
182	13	Derek Holland	SP/RP	551	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
183	13	Alec Mills	SP	531	572	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
184	13	Shaun Anderson	SP	537	582	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
185	13	Ivan Nova	SP	658	#N/A	464	#N/A	#N/A
186	13	Matt Manning	SP	587	539	#N/A	#N/A	488
187	13	Anthony Kay	SP	564	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
188	13	Cal Quantrill	SP/RP	624	507	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
189	13	Kolby Allard	SP	566	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
190	13	Justin Dunn	SP	550	588	#N/A	#N/A	493
191	13	Tarik Skubal	SP	#N/A	570	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
192	13	Tyler Chatwood	SP/RP	573	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
193	13	Ranger Suarez	SP	576	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
194	13	Deivi Garcia	SP	579	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
195	13	Brusdar Graterol	SP	657	502	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
196	13	Jon Duplantier	SP	627	#N/A	541	#N/A	#N/A
197	13	Sixto Sanchez	SP	622	552	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
198	13	Luis Patino	SP	629	555	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
199	13	Clarke Schmidt	SP	595	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
200	13	Brett Anderson	SP	596	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
201	13	Alex Cobb	SP	608	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
202	13	Felix Pena	RP/SP	612	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
203	13	Jose Suarez	SP	630	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
204	13	Ian Anderson	SP	631	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
205	13	Sam Gaviglio	SP/RP	637	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
206	13	Framber Valdez	SP	696	583	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
207	13	Jalen Beeks	SP/RP	698	600	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
208	13	Jeff Hoffman	SP	651	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
209	13	Logan Allen	SP/RP	652	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
210	13	Cam Bedrosian	SP/RP	654	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
211	13	Touki Toussaint	SP/RP	666	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
212	13	Tanner Rainey	SP	669	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
213	13	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	671	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
214	13	Bryse Wilson	SP	678	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
215	13	Tyler Anderson	SP	685	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
216	13	Daniel Mengden	SP	687	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
217	13	Michael King	SP	689	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
218	13	Dereck Rodriguez	SP	690	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
219	13	Devin Smeltzer	SP	692	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
220	13	Matt Hall	SP	697	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

 

Tier One

A few weeks ago, I was the sole ranker who had Cole, deGrom, and Buehler all as first-rounders in 12-team leagues. Now, it appears we are all valuing aces more during a short season. Most notably, Gerrit Cole is a top-five pick for all but one of our rankers. For my part, he isn't just my top SP - I've got him over Mike Trout in my final draft rankings now that there is legitimate concern that the best hitter in the game may miss a week or more for paternity leave and is even considering sitting out the 2020 season. I don't expect Cole to go seven innings every time out, but the strikeout category will be yours to own if you select him. He looks game-ready based on early Summer Camp results, striking out nine in 5 2/3 scoreless innings during an intrasquad game, for what that's worth.

Just when you thought there was no more of a sure thing than Jacob deGrom... The reigning two-time Cy Young award winner left his most recent outing after one inning with back tightness. As of this writing, the severity is unknown, but it can't go ignored if his season debut is delayed.

 

Tier Two

Walker Buehler has been the third SP off the board throughout most of the preseason, but he's recently been passed over in favor of veterans Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. The long delay gave Verlander enough time to recover from his groin injury and the 60-game schedule inspires confidence that both pitchers over the age of 35 will make it through unscathed. ATC projections have Buehler trailing both vets in strikeouts while posting similar ratios.

I had no issue projecting Buehler to keep pace with the K leaders and taking another step to lowering his walk rate, keeping a tidy WHIP that could stay under 1.00. That was until today when I saw this:

First time out once the season starts, Walker Buehler might only pitch 3-4 innings, and build up from therehttps://t.co/qZUtjD4HZZ

— Eric Stephen (@ericstephen) July 15, 2020

If Buehler is going to have a hard time reaching his projected 69 IP, then 80 K and five wins might be out of reach. Every plate appearance and batter faced will make a difference in 2020, so Buehler must be knocked down a couple of spots.

As a previous Yu Darvish loyalist, it's easy to have trust issues. His superb second-half numbers from 2019 (2.76 ERA, .119 BAA, 118 K, seven BB in 81 2/3 IP) propel him to SP12 in our draft rankings, but if he gets off to a slow start like last season (5.01 ERA, 73 K, 41 BB in his first 61 IP) then this will be a massive draft bust. The stuff has always been there; it's just a matter of where his head is at.

 

Tier Three

When comparing the top of the third tier, Luis Castillo and Blake Snell are neck-and-neck in our rankings but I've got a 40-spot gap between the two! The Snell justification is easy. He's saying all the right things now, but when a player spends more time focusing on money than game preparation, it's a red flag for me. Then there are the elbow issues he had last year and the fact that the Rays are notorious for bullpen hijinx, so I'm taking a more cautious approach with him.

Castillo's ranking may be aggressive, but I'm looking to lock in high-strikeout options early on and he fits the bill. Plus, if Castillo was able to notch 15 wins with last year's version of the Reds, he can do better this year (prorated to 5-6 wins, of course). He's entering the prime of his career at age 27 on a rising team that gets a favorable Centralized schedule. What's not to like, especially with all the red in his Statcast profile?

The 10% walk rate is something not to like, I'll admit, but I view 2019 as more of an outlier in that regard than a growing trend. His Zone% was over 50% the previous two seasons before falling to 41.6% last year. His Whiff rate jumped to 36% and he didn't see his WHIP rise despite walking more batters. Add in the fact that Castillo has been throwing bullpen sessions in Cincy for a while and claimed that he is ready to go 6-7 innings right now, I'm all in.

My esteemed WPC+ co-host Nick Gaut must be tired of all the Zack Greinke stories on his feed. That and the fact he outperformed his SIERA by a full run last year. For they reason, he has Greinke outside the top 100 overall, while I have him inside the top 50. In a way, he is the opposite of the aforementioned Castillo - an older pitcher with waning velocity and an underwhelming strikeout rate.

Still, I view Greinke being nearly as valuable because he has a high floor and can stabilize your ratios all season. Aside from Greinke, only four qualified starters posted a WHIP below 1.00. Two of them went home with a Cy Young award and all four (Verlander, Cole, Flaherty, deGrom) have an ADP inside the top 25. Why should Greinke fall so far in a year where playing it safe with top-tier starters should be the rule? I'll take the bet that he stays closer to 3.00 on his ERA along with an immaculate walk rate that keeps him as a top-20 SP with no real reason to worry.

 

Tier Four

Trevor Bauer is another starter in flux right now. He is away from the team while he waits for a test result. If we assume the best-case scenario, he is a reliable starter who has tossed at least 150 innings for six straight seasons culminating with a career-high 213 IP last year. That doesn't mean so much in a shortened season, but he's a safe bet to run deep in games and, as shown above, is projected by ATC to have the fourth-highest strikeout total in the majors.

He's also helped by the schedule itself. The realignment to regional matchups will favor NL Central pitchers most. In Cincinnati's case, this includes six matchups with the Tigers, four with the Royals, and three with the potent but strikeout-prone White Sox. Don't forget that the Pirates are in their division and provide another 10 favorable matchups. Bauer won't lead the league in ERA, but he is a good bet to anchor a fantasy staff as a second arm.

Speaking of AL-NL Central matchups, Jose Berrios is another solid rotation option that doesn't always get the proper due. He was one of 15 pitchers to reach the 200-inning mark last year and still has the backing of one of the best offenses in the league, promising a safe floor for counting stats. He also gets intra-divisional foes like Detroit, KC, and Chicago on the slate along with the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs, who all finished in the bottom-12 in K-rate against right-handed pitching in 2019.

I've never been a huge Paxton guy, but I get why his draft stock is rising. The delay helped him more than any starting pitcher in allowing him to get fully healthy and shake off concerns of an innings limit. The Yanks are all-in for a pennant run (as usual) and will be without Luis Severino and now Aroldis Chapman, so Paxton won't get the luxury of skipping starts. That's better for those who invested in him late in February/March drafts. The increased emphasis on divisional opponents helps him as well. As Riley Mrack pointed out in his excellent SP Risers article, "Paxton went a perfect 6-0 over his final six starts versus the AL East, while owning a 1.73 ERA and 26.6% K-rate in this span... The Red Sox were the only team in the division to have across the board success versus lefties last season, but the loss of Mookie Betts will undoubtedly impact their offense in 2020." Paxton isn't the ADP value he used to be and I'm not spending a top-100 pick like others of my ilk, but if he's still available after pick 120 then I am comfortable pulling the trigger.

 

Tier Five

Mike Soroka has gotten enough air time on our overvalued pitchers podcast and overachiever articles, so it's best to simply hear and read what has already been said about him by Nick G and myself. He doesn't possess the K upside to offset likely regression in his ratios, he doesn't have the friendliest home park for pitchers, and now has a DH to contend with for intra-division battles. Pass.

Recurring theme alert: MadBum is a veteran arm who should be among the NL leaders in innings pitched and therefore could finish among the top 20 in strikeouts and wins while providing a solid ERA with little risk. It seems as if he's been around forever but Bumgarner is just 30 years old and how has the motivation of starting with a new team.

The move to Chase Field won't hurt as much as speculated. It ranked 16th in runs and 20th in home runs for Park Factors last year. As it turns out, he should still get two turns to pitch in his old home as the D-backs will play at San Francisco seven times. Petco and Dodger Stadium are still on the slate, as is Oakland Coliseum and Angel Stadium. Let's just hope his turn in the rotation is missed during the three-game series at Coors from August 10-12.

Schedule aside, Bumgarner gets a bump from me this season because of the reliability factor and the fact he checks the box in one of the most telling stats: K-BB%. Even with a rise in Barrels and ERA, he finished with a 19% K-BB%, which ranked 21st among qualified starters. He's not losing velocity either, as his four-seamer clocked an average of 91.4 MPH - the highest since 2015. I'm not talking myself into thinking we'll get vintage MadBum, but I'm not shying away from him either.

 

Tier Six

I'm by far the most bullish on Mike Minor, ranking him 119th while the next closest is Riley at 156. We're so used to thinking of Minor as injured that we must have collectively forgotten how outstanding he was in 2019 before tailing off in the second half. If he can get off to a strong start again,

All preseason I wondered aloud why Jesus Luzardo was trending toward a top-100 ADP while former top prospect A.J. Puk sat around pick 245. The gap has closed slightly, as Puk is now going around 213 overall in NFBC leagues. The decision has been essentially made for us now that Luzardo has been diagnosed with COVID and remains quarantined. Puk is all but guaranteed a rotation spot now and is a high-ceiling arm to target in the later rounds. His RP eligibility is an added bonus.

Another risk-reward pick is Pittsburgh's top prospect, Mitch Keller. The Bucs haven't done the best job developing young talent lately, with Keller's 7.13 ERA last year a prime example, but supposedly the team has finally decided to embrace a 21st-century approach to the game. New pitching coach Oscar Marin and manager Derek Shelton will do their best to develop Keller's natural ability. Still, it's hard to say if Keller will be ready to perform near ace level or if he needs more seasoning to be dependable in fantasy circles. I'm willing to gamble on the talent.

 

Tier Seven and Lower

Garrett Richards is a bargain starter available past pick 200 who could pay off handsomely. Paul Sporer recently picked him as a dark horse candidate to lead the league in strikeouts. He could start the year as the #2 arm in San Diego's rotation and now appears to have no innings restriction in place due to the shortened season.

Tingler says this shortened season likely puts the guys coming off Tommy John, Lamet and Richards, without limitations.

Assuming all goes well the next three weeks.

Paddack was already trending that way.

— Jeff Sanders (@sdutSanders) June 24, 2020

I don't doubt his ability, but the fact that he's only pitched 142 innings over the past four seasons combined leaves me hesitant to spend a draft pick on him during this "sprint" of a season (had to work it in somewhere). As a late-round flier, the reward might be worth the risk but I'm more likely to abandon risky pitchers of any sort in 2020.

We probably won't see the 2017 version of Alex Wood now that he's back in L.A. but the 2018 version wouldn't be too bad. An ERA in the mid-threes and WHIP around 1.20 with a handful of wins would make him a solid back-end fantasy starter. Others are higher on Ross Stripling, but he's got a looser grip on a rotation spot and doesn't offer anything more than Wood in terms of roto categories.

Don't save a spot for me on the Dylan Bundy rebound hype train. In fact, there isn't a rebound to happen. In four MLB seasons, he's never held an ERA under 4.00 or a WHIP under 1.20. Sure, moving out of Baltimore has to help, but it can only do so much. It's not as if there's a high-end K-rate to hang your hat onto or a magical new pitch he's unleashed. I'll take my chances elsewhere.

Jordan Montgomery appears to have a rotation spot locked up after posting a 16-1 K-BB rate in spring training. A developing sinker could be the key to success so monitor his first couple of starts closely to see if he's worth hanging onto.

My sweet Griffin Canning... we should get to see him for close to 10 starts, assuming the Halos roll with a six-man rotation mixing in Ohtani. His elbow inflammation doesn't seem to be an issue, so he could be a bargain last-round pick. Canning posted fairly strong peripherals last year and would have come out looking better if not for a pair of rough July starts that raised his ERA by a full run.

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