Divisional Adjustments: Pitchers On the Rise

July 19, 2020

Riley Mrack evaluates starting pitchers whose fantasy baseball value is rising based on MLB divisional adjustments for 2020.

After some painfully-long negotiations, the MLB season will begin in late July with a 60-game season. For the general fan and for us in the fantasy community, the length of the schedule is less than ideal, but I think we can all agree that some baseball is better than no baseball. The abbreviated season will make the 2020 fantasy baseball campaign unique from any other year with us now preparing for a two-month sprint instead of a six-month marathon.

In an effort to limit travel for the player's health and safety, the 60-game schedule will break down into 40 games versus teams within their respective division, and 20 games versus their NL or AL divisional counterpart. Barring some missed time, a rough breakdown of the opponents for a starting pitcher should see them make 12 starts, two versus each divisional foe (one home, one away), and one start against each inter-league divisional counterpart. With this unique schedule, we can discover some advantages that pitchers may have, judging by the smaller amount of opponents they'll now face this year.

It's clear certain divisions are weaker than others, so we'll sift through some team data from the 2019 season to sniff out which arms may benefit from a softer schedule than usual. K-rate (K%), On-base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS), and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) are three of the broadest and most accurate stats to determine a club's hitting success, so we'll evaluate these categories primarily for this exercise. A short season like this will come with more unpredictability with a smaller sample size, but the best we can do is research our butts off in hopes of finding a competitive advantage over our fellow competitors in this year's fantasy drafts.

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Mike Clevinger (CLE, SP) - 31 ADP

Mike Clevinger stands out the most in this schedule since he sports a career 25-7 record versus the AL Central, including going 9-1 in 2019 with a 1.26 ERA and 34.9% K% in 86.0 IP. By looking at last season's year-end numbers, the most favorable division to pitch in as a right-hander was the AL Central, and it appears like it has a chance to repeat in 2020. The following chart shows us each of Clevinger's divisional opponent's numbers versus right-handers in 2019.

Other than the powerhouse Minnesota Twins lineup, who also set the single-season MLB home run record a year ago, the other three teams showed weaknesses in one area or the other. Detroit was downright atrocious a season ago, and Kansas City was a bit tougher to strikeout, but couldn't produce much better results at getting on base and scoring runs. The White Sox hit for a high average (.261) but didn't produce as well as they should have probably due to their third-worst K-rate. The Pale Hose should improve in 2020 offensively, but they still look like a team that will be susceptible to the strikeout.

Clevinger will be licking his chops when he toes the rubber against the Royals and Tigers this year, and his high strikeout arm should keep the White Sox lineup at bay. The Twins lineup will be worrisome once again, but he managed to keep the 2019 club to a respectable 2.39 ERA and .179 BA in four starts. With this soft schedule, Clevinger is shaping into a sneaky favorite for the AL Cy Young this year.

Jake Odorizzi (MIN, SP) - 181 ADP

Like Clevinger, Jake Odorizzi feasted on his weaker divisional foes in 2019. He carved up the AL Central to a 2.76 ERA and a 30.9% K-rate on his way to an 8-3 record, giving him some serious sleeper appeal at his current cost. We've mentioned the struggles of three of his divisional opponents, and when it comes to the Indians lineup, there's not a whole lot to fear either. The Tribe finished with approximate league average marks versus righties in K-rate (21.8%), BA (.250), OPS (.756), and wRC+ (94) in 2019. The top of the Indians lineup is threatening, but there's not much to like in the bottom half of the order for 2020.

We can't forget to factor in some of the NL Central clubs who'll face this AL division for a third of their schedule. These clubs' results weren't much better with the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs all finishing in the bottom-12 in K-rate versus right-handers a season ago. The Pirates and Cardinals also had trouble of their own versus these hurlers with bottom-12 finishes in OPS. Granted, these NL clubs will have the benefit of the DH this year, but we should still look at targeting right-handers on the Twins and the Indians since they'll face each of their weaker AL opponents once or twice at a minimum.

Rich Hill (MIN, SP) - 430 ADP

While we're on the AL Central subject, we can't ignore Rich Hill, who looks on track for Opening Day after undergoing elbow surgery last October. The unofficial king of blisters becomes an intriguing choice this year since he only needs to stay healthy for two months, and when we factor in his divisional opponents, he looks all the more appealing. We've seen how the AL Central handled righties a year ago, now let's look at some of their team data versus southpaws.

To no one's surprise, the Tigers and Royals were also awful at the plate versus lefties in 2019, while the Indians showed us more league-average numbers, other than they were more difficult to punch out. The White Sox produced better results than they did against righties but were still prone to the strikeout, which pairs well with Hill's innate punch out ability. He hasn't faced an AL Central team since 2017, so we can't relate much data there, but he has posted a 7-3 record and a 2.71 ERA versus the NL Central over the past three seasons.

There's obvious risk when selecting an injury-prone 40-year-old, but he's shown he can perform at a high level when healthy in recent years, and the cost isn't high at the moment. He will deal with a new catching tandem and toe the rubber in Target Field for the first time since 2013, but the potential is there for tremendous results while pitching in front of the Twins potent lineup.

James Paxton (NYY, SP) - 138 ADP

James Paxton had a solid debut season with the Yankees in 2019 thanks to some sterling results versus the AL East. Through 80.1 IP, he held an 8-3 record with a 3.59 ERA and 23.9% K-rate, but his results got much better versus his divisional rivals as the season progressed. With more knowledge of the hitters within the division, Paxton went a perfect 6-0 over his final six starts versus the AL East, while owning a 1.73 ERA and 26.6% K-rate in this span. Big Maple wasn't the only southpaw that the rest of the division struggled against in 2019, as we can discover from the chart below.

The Red Sox were the only team in the division to have across the board success versus lefties last season, but the loss of Mookie Betts will undoubtedly impact their offense in 2020. The Orioles are also without their top hitter with the right-handed bat of Trey Mancini out for the upcoming season, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of an already underwhelming lineup. The Rays and Blue Jays both struck out a ton versus left-handers, but their youthful hitters should improve with time, will it happen during a short season remains to be seen.

Backed behind one of the league's top run-producing teams, Paxton should have no trouble finding wins over his divisional foes once again in 2020. The 31-year-old's biggest flaw has always centered around his inability to stay on the field, but with a February back issue already behind him, it's reasonable to expect him to make all 12 starts this year. Paxton's stock will only rise as the season draws closer, so don't shy away from scooping him up as your SP2.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD, SP) - 50 ADP

Clayton Kershaw bucked a decade-long trend of divisional dominance in 2019 by coming off his worst campaign yet versus his NL West rivals. He sported a ho-hum 5-4 record, while holding a 3.72 ERA, and 22.7% K-rate in 75 IP last year. Not terrible numbers, but in comparison to some shorter-term relevance from 2016-18, not up to par. In these three seasons, he posted a superb 22-6 record with a 2.01 ERA and 27.5% K-rate. It's unlikely we see Kershaw return to this level of mastery, but if he settles into the happy-medium, that'll be enough to please his 2020 owners. To see how the NL West measured up to left-handed pitching a year ago, let's consult the chart below.

Kershaw should have his way with the Giants in 2020 with their same lackluster lineup returning, which should more than balance out how well the D'backs can hit southpaws. For whatever reason, the Padres have never found success versus Kershaw, and the Rockies are much easier to neutralize outside of Coors Field, where he'll presumably only face them once. Mix in a start versus the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers who all finished in the bottom-five in BA versus lefties a year ago, and Kershaw is shaping up like a top-tier ace for 2020.

German Marquez (COL, SP) 182 ADP

Rockies starter German Marquez could cash in this season for some positive regression after a disappointing 2019 campaign. The 25-year-old did find decent success against his division rivals as he posted a 5-2 record and 27.0% K-rate through 62.0 IP, but he left more to be desired with a 5.08 ERA. If we remove 26 of these innings from his starts in Coors Field, however, we get a lot more attractive 2.50 ERA. Let's take in one last chart to see how the NL West matched up versus right-handed pitching in 2019.

The Padres and Giants were two of the worst offenses in baseball versus right-handers in 2019, and with not much left-handed-hitting pop for either club in 2020, their results should continue. The D'backs weren't nearly as good as they were versus lefties, leaving the Dodgers as the only looming threat. Marquez has managed to neutralize the LA squad over the past two seasons, allowing one earned run through 14.0 innings (0.84 ERA) in 2019, after holding a 2.81 ERA through 25.2 IP in 2018. Marquez has shown ace-like stuff over the past two seasons, and if he can luck out into more road starts, he could propel himself into elite pitching company in 2020.

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