Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

January 4, 2022

Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Cyril Grayson, Devin Singletary, Noah Fant, and more.

Joe Burrow went off for a second week in a row to finish as QB1 on the week, throwing for 446 yards and four touchdowns to defeat the Chiefs and lock up the AFC North. Russell Wilson (QB2) came alive and threw for four touchdowns, Tom Brady (QB3) threw for 410 and three scores even without Antonio Brown for much of the game and Josh Allen (QB4) came through by scoring two touchdowns on the ground even though he only threw for 120 yards. Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Trey Lance, Tim Boyle and Justin Herbert rounded out the QB1's, but none of them had standout performances. Better late than never, Noah Fant came through as TE1 on the week with 92 yards and a touchdown. Rob Gronkowski (TE2) went for 115 yards, Mark Andrews (TE3) had six grabs for 89 yards and Travis Kelce (TE4) came through with a score. Dallas Goedert (TE5) had six catches for 71 yards, and beyond him, the rest of the TE1's were rather pedestrian as usual.

For the second week in a row a Bengals wide receiver finished as the clear WR1 on the week. This time it was Ja'Marr Chase who had one of the all-time great performances from a receiver with 11 catches, 266 yards and three touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR2) had another great game, DK Metcalf (WR3) came through for the first time in seemingly forever with three touchdowns, Davante Adams (WR4) did what he always does against the Vikings and went for 136 yards and a score and Braxton Berrios (WR5) scored twice to come through. Cooper Kupp (WR6) was only targeted seven times, but he came through with 95 yards and a touchdown. Kristian Wilkerson, Jakobi Meyers, Cyril Grayson, Hunter Renfrow, Antoine Wesley and Darnell Mooney rounded out the WR1's for the week.

Rashaad Penny is the RB1 for your fantasy football championship weekend. Let that sink in. Darrel Williams scored twice to finish as RB2, Devin Singletary (RB3) went for 110 yards and scored twice, Boson Scott (RB5) touched the ball 18 times and scored two touchdowns and AJ Dillon (RB6) carried the ball a lot in the second half to finish off the Vikings with two touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB4) rushed for 107 yards and two scores and actually carried the ball more than Damien Harris (RB15) who scored twice himself. David Montgomery, Elijah Mitchell, D'Onta Foreman, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara and Jaret Patterson rounded out the RB1's on the week. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 17 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Week 17 Stats: 2 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD, 11 targets, 8 catches, 111 yards, 1 TD

Amon-Ra St. Brown did not score a single touchdown prior to Week 13. Starting in Week 13, St. Brown had a minimum of 11 targets a week, scored in 4-of-5 of those games and had at least eight catches over that span.

Bottom Line: Amon-Ra St. Brown finished the 2021 season on an absolute tear and was likely a league winner for many teams. The Lions absolutely need to address the quarterback position in the draft and must bring in a legitimate X-receiver to dictate coverages. St. Brown should be a mid-round pick in fantasy leagues in 2022 and will be extremely viable, especially in PPR-formats. If you drafted and held onto St. Brown in your dynasty leagues, congratulations.

Braxton Berrios, N.Y. Jets

Week 17 Stats: 2 carries, 12 yards, 1 TD, 12 targets, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Braxton Berrios has played at least 80% of the Jets offensive snaps over the last two weeks. Berrios saw a season-high 12 targets in Week 17 which contributed to his WR5 performance. On the season, Berrios gained more than 50 yards just four times and saw double-digit targets in just three games.

Bottom Line: Braxton Berrios may be viable once again in Week 18 if you're still playing DFS or in the season-long playoffs, but beyond that, he doesn't offer much value. The Jets are built around Elijah Moore and Corey Davis in the passing game, so 2022 will not be a fruitful one for Berrios if he's still with the team.

Kristian Wilkerson, New England Patriots

Week 17 Stats: 8 targets, 4 catches, 42 yards, 2 TD

Kristian Wilkerson played 67 snaps in 2021 and 60 of them came in Week 17 against the Jaguars. Kendrick Bourne played just 59.7% of the Patriots offensive snaps while Jakobi Meyers played 77.8%. It looks like Wilkerson filled in for Nelson Agholor and actually played more than Kendrick Bourne.

Bottom Line: Wilkerson came out of nowhere to finish as WR7 on the week. Stay tuned because if Nelson Agholor returns in Week 18, Wilkerson will likely return to the bench but it's the Patriots, so you simply never know.

Cyril Grayson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 17 Stats: 8 targets, 6 catches, 81 yards, 1 TD

Cyril Grayson is a 5'9", 28-year-old wide receiver out of LSU. Prior to Week 15, Grayson played just 21 offensive snaps. After Chris Godwin went down for the season with a torn ACL, Grayson played 79.1% of the snaps in Week 15 and then 63.5% in Week 16. Antonio Brown returned to the Buccaneers lineup in Week 16 and in Week 17 Mike Evans returned, so Grayson went back to the bench until Antonio Brown removed himself from the game in Week 17.

Bottom Line: Now that Antonio Brown is out of the picture in Tampa Bay, Cyril Grayson appears to be the next man up to fill the role as the Buccaneers slot receiver. Grayson should be viable throughout the NFL playoffs if you play any DFS and he may have dynasty value depending on what the Buccaneers do in the offseason.

Antoine Wesley, Arizona Cardinals

Week 17 Stats: 5 targets, 4 catches, 30 yards, 2 TD

Antoine Wesley is a 6'4" receiver that played for Kliff Kingsbury while he coached at Texas Tech. Since DeAndre Hopkins went down with a knee injury, Wesley has played 43, 50 and 64 snaps. Earlier in the year, when Hopkins missed time with a hamstring injury, Wesley played 63, 42, 54 and 31 snaps in a four-game span. Wesley never gained more than 62 yards in any game this season, but he's scored the last two weeks in a row.

Bottom Line: It's clear that Antoine Wesley has been asked to play more snaps which were vacated by DeAndre Hopkins, but the increase in snaps doesn't always translate into production, making him an extremely volatile play.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Week 17 Stats: 23 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD, 1 target

The Bills struggled in the passing game against the Falcons in Week 17 and actually leaned on the running game for once, scoring four touchdowns on the ground. Zack Moss and Matt Breida were irrelevant this week as Devin Singletary assumed a workhorse role.

Bottom Line: Devin Singletary has played at least 68.4% of the Bills offensive snaps going back the last four weeks. Singletary looks to have emerged as the lead back in the Bills offense and should be considered as such for dynasty purposes unless the team addresses the position in the offseason.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

Week 17 Stats: 7 targets, 6 catches, 92 yards, 1 TD

The Broncos passing game is tough to watch, but they still have to throw the ball, especially when they're losing, which is quite often lately. The Broncos were without Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy in Week 17, leaving Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton as the main options in the passing game.

Bottom Line: Noah Fant is the real deal, but I think it's clear that the Broncos need to bring in a legitimate quarterback if Fant is ever going to have a breakout type season.

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