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Andy looks at four sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 1 (2026) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
Even though we are not even a full week into the 2026 MLB season, we have seen many starting pitchers surpass expectations in their season debuts. This brings the question: Should managers run to the wire to pick them up?
In this weekly piece, I will spotlight four pitchers and analyze their most recent outing and determine if they are on breakout watch, or fool's gold.
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Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels
50% Rostered (Yahoo)
Let's kick this column off with a target for those in shallower leagues. Jose Soriano sits just above the 50% roster mark even after turning in one of the most dominant starts of the Opening Weekend.
Soriano was given the ball for the Angels on Opening Day in Houston and did not disappoint. The 27-year-old logged six shutout frames with just two hits and four walks. He struck out seven. While his command did raise some concerns, he limited contact, surrendering a mere two hits while flashing above-average strikeout upside.
In this outing, Soriano continued to lean on his sinker, but not as much as he did a season before. In 2025, Soriano deployed this primary pitch at a 49.1% rate, but deployed it at just 34.1% rate in his first outing of 2026. His knuckle curve remained his No. 2 pitch and carried a similar 28.6% usage rate, compared to the 26.7% rate in 2025.
However, the major change, as highlighted above, is the addition of a four-seamer. In 2025, Soriano relied on his four-seamer a mere 8.6% of the time, and it was his overall No. 4 pitch, behind his split-finger (9.2% usage). In his first start, this pitch was thrown a hefty 25.3% of the time, nearly matching the knuckle curve.
While this pitch did not have the best results, generating a modest .431 xwOBA under the hood, it helped his sinker perform better. In 2025, his sinker posted a modest .352 xwOBA with a low 16.1% whiff rate. However, in this first outing, the sinker was extremely effective, posting a low .102 xwOBA with a massive 42.1% whiff rate.
Even though the four-seamer was not overly effective, it did have an uptick in velocity, averaging 99.1 MPH on Opening Day, a near two-point jump from the 97.0 MPH it closed in on in 2025.
While the sample size is small, the knuckle curve, his primary whiff pitch, posted an incredible 72.7% whiff rate on Opening Day. This pitch averaged a 42.9% whiff rate back in 2025, and the emergence of his four-seamer could take this pitch to another level. He also mixed in his split-finger and slider, but they were not thrown often compared to his top-3 pitches.
Entering the offseason, Soriano has some late-draft sleeper appeal given his underrating metrics, and this strong showing on Opening Day has pushed him into must-roster territory. In 2025, Soriano carried a modest surface-value 4.26 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP (over 169 innings). Under the hood, he generated a 4.04 xERA with a strong 7.2% barrel rate.
He also posted an elite 66.0% ground-ball rate, which placed him in the 100th percentile among qualified pitchers. Additionally, even though his K% was low, he posted an above-average 27.0% whiff rate, and this positive regression was already evident in 2026, as he averaged over a strikeout per inning.
Soriano should be a priority target for those in shallower leagues as he appears to be laying a strong foundation ahead of a breakout campaign.
Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins
5% Rostered
Taj Bradley nearly missed the Opening Day roster but made a statement in his season debut. Facing the Baltimore Orioles, Bradley logged 4 1/3 innings while allowing one run, three hits, and three walks while striking out an impressive nine batters. While his overall stat line is not overly impressive, his high-end strikeout upside is worth closely monitoring.
In 2025, Bradley logged a career-high 27 starts for the Rays and Twins (21 in Tampa Bay) and carried a modest 5.05 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He struck out just 127 hitters while serving up 56 free passes. His 80 total runs placed him 11th in the American League and likely on the waiver wire in even the deepest of leagues for most of the campaign.
So what changed? Did Bradley take a step forward in his age-25 season?
Like Soriano, a slight tweak to his pitch repertoire could be the missing piece for Bradley to transform from a low-end streamer to a reliable weekly option. In his season debut, Bradley threw his four-seamer 40.2% of the time, nearly identical to the 38.6% he threw it last summer. Outside of this pitch, his entire game plan was different.
Facing the Orioles, Bradley leaned on his split-finger as his No. 2 pitch (29.3% usage), a massive jump from the 15.1% he threw it in 2025. As a result, his cutter (his No. 2 pitch in 2025) was thrown just 15.2% of the time in his season debut, matching it with his curveball (15.2%) for his No.3 and No. 4th-most-used pitches.
In 2025, his cutter was ineffective, posting a modest .320 xwOBA. While it did not fare much better last week (generating a .397 xwOBA), throwing it less often allowed his split-finger to shine. His primary whiff pitch (the split-finger) led the way in this outing, generating an eye-catching .145 xwOBA with a 63.6% whiff rate. This was a nice improvement compared to the .269 xwOBA it posted last summer.
Taj Bradley's Splitter.
"My goodness what are we seeing!" 🔊😲 pic.twitter.com/gQN6u1cSZ8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2026
The lone concern in his profile remains his four-seamer. While it clocked in at a 97.4 MPH, a minor jump from the 96.2 MPH it registered last summer, it still posted a rough .375 xwOBA but drew whiffs at a 30.0% rate. The underlying metrics of this pitch still remain a concern, but it appears to be playing quite well off his split-finger.
Among the names on this list, when looking for high-end strikeout upside on a per-start basis, Bradley is your target. He is a name to consider as a streamer, as he has the potential to turn in high-total punch efforts, as he did in his season debut.
However, his floor remains very low given his shaky command (career 8.7% BB%) and will likely hurt you more than help.
Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres
20% Rostered
Randy Vasquez led the way in his season debut. Facing the Detroit Tigers, Vasquez logged six innings of two-hit ball with no runs and only three walks. He struck out eight hitters. This was one of the most dominant outings from the Opening Weekend, and also one of the most surprising, as he likely went undrafted in most standard leagues this spring.
After bouncing between the bullpen and rotation throughout the early stages of his career, Vasquez spent the entire 2025 season as a starter in San Diego and logged a career-high 133 2/3 innings. Over this stint, Vasquez held a solid 3.84 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. However, he was not a viable fantasy asset, as he struck out just 13.7% of the hitters he faced, placing him in the second percentile among qualified pitchers.
He also posted a high 9.1% BB% (30th percentile) and generated a hefty 5.37 xERA, suggesting he was quite lucky and could even face some regression in 2026. However, his season debut suggests Vasquez is not only defying these metrics but taking the next step in his development.
The major change in his profile was the increase in velocity. In his first outing, the 27-year-old's four-seamer clocked in at 95.0 MPH, a nice jump from the 93,5 MPH it averaged in 2025. Additionally, nearly all of his other secondary pitches showed an increase in velocity, which was driving before his dominant outing, as shown below.
His four-seamer (29.7% usage) was every effective, adding velocity and posting a .247 xwOBA with a 35.3% whiff rate. This allowed his No. 2 pitch, his cutter (23.1% usage), which was his No. 1 pitch last season, to generate a strong .291 xwOBA, a massive improvement over the .376 xwOBA it posted in 2025.
The sample size is small, but the increased velocity is an excellent sign for the young right-hander. He should be a priority target on the waiver wire in all 12-team leagues.
Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals
15% Rostered
The final player we will spotlight in this piece is Cade Cavalli of the Washington Nationals. Cavalli is a former top prospect but has yet to have an extended stint in the majors due to an extensive injury history. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and logged just 4 1/3 innings before returning to the majors in 2025 after working his way back from a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery.
Cavalli returned to the bump in August of 2025 and generated some promising metrics under the hood. Through a short 48 2/3 innings, Cavalli held a 4.25 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. While he only struck out 40 hitters, the high-end 27.9% whiff rate and elite 33.9% chase% under the hood suggest better days are ahead. Additionally, the right-hander also generated a 4.16 xERA while limiting barrels at a 4.4% rate and generating groundballs at a high 55.1% rate.
In spring training, Cavalli continued to find his footing, tossing 14 shutout innings with a 10:2 K:BB. Keep in mind, Cavalli has not only barely pitched in the majors, but he was also on the shelf for almost three full seasons. Growing pains were inevitable.
Despite this (and Washington's lack of starting pitchers), he was given the ball on Opening Day and was slated to face one of the game's top lineups that welcomed Alex Bregman this winter. Facing the Cubs, Cavalli logged only 3 2/3 innings but managed to strike out five hitters. He walked three hitters and allowed three runs (two earned).
The overall stat line is nothing too impressive, but seeing him begin to earn some positive regression in the strikeout department is an excellent sign. In this outing, Cavalli relied on his four-seamer as his No. 1 pitch and his knuckle curve as his No. 2, which was the opposite of his brief stint in 2025.
A pitch to watch, however, is his sweeper. In 2025, Cavalli only deployed this at a low 0.3% of the time, but threw it nine times on Opening Day (12.0%), which nearly matched his sinker for his No. 3-most-used pitch. This pitch posted a near-perfect .026 xwOBA with a 50.0% whiff rate and could become a high-end whiff asset for him.
Cade Cavalli, Literal Back Foot Sweeper...and Sword. 🦶⚔️
Adding Injury to Insult. pic.twitter.com/dMTwdVwRIE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 26, 2026
Managers should continue to expect Cavalli's workload to be monitored, given his extensive injury history, but the raw strikeout upside is worth pursuing. He has a difficult matchup facing the Phillies, but is worth keeping stashed on the bench in all 12+ team formats.
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