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Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 16. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.
Week 16 might feature the most exciting slate of NFL games we've seen this season. Not only do we have a lot of close spreads this weekend, but we also have a bunch of teams playing incredibly meaningful games that will impact the playoff race in both conferences.
I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 16 on Novig!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.
You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of the Panthers to win on Sunday at +150, then anyone can flip the bet and take the Buccaneers to win at -150 on their end.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NFL Picks Against the Spread
Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+100 NOVIG)
The Packers will face their division rival for the second time in three weeks, with Green Bay taking the first matchup over Chicago 28-21 in Week 14 at home.
He's fast, boiiiiii#ProBowlVote + Christian Watson#ProBowlVote + Jordan Love
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/Lz99gpApD0
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 7, 2025
While the Packers lost their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, last week, they still have a strong defense that can make things difficult for Caleb Williams and company. Most importantly, I am not sure the Bears' defense can stop Jordan Love and his bevy of receivers. Love has been fantastic against man coverage and has multiple weapons (hopefully including a healthy Christian Watson) at his disposal.
In a game that has huge playoff implications for both teams, I like the Packers to come away with a win. They're more battle-tested at this point than this young Bears team.
Compare at -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline (+121 NOVIG)
We have another road underdog who feels like they should be favored here with the Chargers, who are fresh off two big wins over the Eagles and Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost to the Vikings last week and saw their playoff hopes all but evaporate in the process.
The Chargers have been playing some fantastic defense of late, creating turnovers and keeping opponents out of the end zone while forcing field goals on many of their trips into the red zone. Dallas has a potent offense, but I like the Chargers' chances of slowing them down in this one, while the Dallas defense could really struggle to stop L.A. on the other side.
Justin Herbert has a stable of solid receivers and now two healthy running backs. The Chargers are getting healthier and could be peaking at just the right time. I expect them to take care of business in Dallas and continue their surge towards a playoff berth.
Compare at +108 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-117 NOVIG)
One more road team this week, though I am not going out on a limb and predicting an outright win by the Jags in Denver. Jacksonville has, however, played some very good football now for over a month on both sides of the ball and should be viewed as a team of similar caliber to the Broncos, in my opinion.
We know that Denver keeps winning, but only by the narrowest of margins. If they do pull off this win, it will go a long way to help build their resume as a contender for a Super Bowl run. But I think the Jags are live dogs and will keep this one close until the end. A field goal likely decides this game, and I'll happily take the Jags with an extra half-point cushion here.
Compare at +3 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL Rushing Prop Bets
James Cook III OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115 NOVIG)
For much of the season, I have avoided the vaunted Browns rush defense. However, that defense has shown some cracks lately and will now have to contend with one of the best rushing attacks in the league as the Buffalo Bills come to Cleveland.
The Browns were gashed by Tony Pollard for 161 yards in Week 14, and then last week allowed 132 yards on the ground to the combo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. With the Bills installed as 10.5-point favorites, this could set up as a very favorable game script for Cook and the run game if Buffalo can jump out to an early lead.
With the Browns showing very little on offense lately and Shadeur Sanders showing a propensity for turning the ball over quite often, we could see the Bills with great field position and a chance to dominate the time of possession. Buffalo loves to run the football and will feed Cook if they get the opportunity. I look for Cook to go over this number, which he's done in three of his last four games.
NFL Receiving Prop Bets
Dallas Goedert OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-117 NOVIG)
The Philadelphia tight end is on pace for one of the best seasons of his career. He's put up similar yardage totals to past seasons, but has found the end zone nine times this year, including two touchdowns last week in the Eagles' rout of the Las Vegas Raiders.
That's another Dallas (Goedert) touchdown!
Dallas Goedert x #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/NW9ciEZ4Xg
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 14, 2025
Goedert went 7-60 against Las Vegas and posted an 8-78 line two weeks ago against the Chargers. Now, he'll face a Commanders team that ranks 28th against the pass and is dead last (32nd) against the TE position (DVOA).
I'm not going to spend time trying to figure out if Barkley hits his rushing prop or which receiver (A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith) gets more targets this week. I feel pretty confident that Goedert will get his touches in this offense, and he has a very low bar to cross here at just 38.5 yards.
Other sportsbook prices for comparison: over 39.5 (-108 FD), over 40.5 (-110 FAN)
Zay Flowers OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-135 NOVIG)
While I am usually hunting for odds as close to even money as possible, I am also on the lookout for prop totals that are much lower than you'll find at other sportsbooks. The difference in getting a player prop even 3-4 yards lower than at another book can mean the difference between winning and losing the bet more often than we'd like to think.
For example, if we look at Zay Flowers receiving totals this season, he's had games where he finished with 58, 63, and 64 yards. Grabbing his receiving total at 59.5 gives us a much better chance of winning this bet than taking it at 63.5 at -110 on BetMGM. We are paying a little more juice here, but increasing the safety of the bet in a big way.
Flowers has gone for 60+ in 10 of 14 games this season, and I think Baltimore will lean on him again this week against a Patriots' defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass. He's been heavily involved in the offense the last two weeks, garnering a 33% target share against Pittsburgh (when he went 8-124 on 11 targets) and a 42% target share last week (3-68 on 5 targets) against the Bengals.
Anytime Touchdown Bets
Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+106 NOVIG)
The Texans are implied for 26.5 points this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL - the Las Vegas Raiders. Vegas has been particularly bad against the pass this season, ranking 22nd in DVOA pass defense and they've also allowed the 5th-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Collins leads the Texans with a healthy 26% red zone target share and found the end zone twice last week, despite only being targeted four times in a blowout win. I think Houston makes sure he finds his way to the end zone early in this one, and the plus odds are nice for such a smash matchup.
Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown (+182 NOVIG)
The New York Giants present an incredible matchup for opposing running backs every week. The Giants remain the worst-ranked run defense, and they've also allowed the 5th-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Jordan Mason is the short-yardage and goal-line back for Minnesota, and sports a 59.5% red-zone carry share compared to his backfield mate, Aaron Jones, who is at just 21.4% on the season. If we expect the Vikings to continue to move the ball and score (which they have the last two weeks in good matchups), then I think the odds of Mason finding the end zone are pretty good, and I love this price on Novig.
