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Our Ben Rosener takes a look at the fantasy baseball impact of Justin Turner reportedly signing with the Red Sox and Kenley Jansen joining Boston as well ahead of the upcoming season.
Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts next spring.
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues next spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with some very Boston Red Sox-specific news. News that also doubles as a breakdown of a pair of former Los Angeles Dodgers standouts.
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Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Justin Turner Reportedly Signing With Boston
Turner is reportedly joining the Boston Red Sox, per a tweet from ESPN’s Joon Lee. Lee tweeted on Sunday:
“Third baseman Justin Turner and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a contract, sources tell me and @Jeff Passan.”
Also, per the same tweet from Lee:
“Turner, 38, is expected to spent most of his time at designated hitter or first base, with Rafael Devers at third. Turner had been a Dodger for the last nine years.”
The Red Sox finished last season with the eighth-most runs scored in the sport but will return just one of their top-four finishers where wRC+ was concerned from last season. Masataka Yoshida’s addition will certainly help, as would a potential Trevor Story bounce-back campaign, but Boston needs middle-of-the-order bats to hit behind Devers.
All this is to say Turner should step into a prominent role in the middle of the Red Sox’ lineup and should benefit from a full season of home games at Fenway Park. The infielder’s expected home run number at Fenway (14) was one higher than his actual home run total, but it’s the presence of the Green Monster looming in left field that should draw the headlines here. As a hitter who found more success to the pull side (and straight away center) as a right-handed batter in 2022–Turner’s wRC+ to the pull side was 202 compared to 71 to the opposite field last season– the veteran’s overall numbers should be boosted a bit by the ballpark change.
Turner notched 81 RBI last season hitting slightly further down the Dodgers’ stacked lineup. It’s not hard to imagine him logging similar, if not better numbers, hitting behind Devers, Yoshida, and Story further up Boston’s lineup next season.
Buying (And Selling) For Fantasy Baseball
Kenley Jansen Joining The Red Sox
In more former Dodgers news, Boston has fortified the team’s bullpen with the addition of veteran closer Kenley Jansen. The 35-year-old logged a 3.38 ERA and a 3.21 FIP in 64 innings for Atlanta last season, striking out 11.95 batters per nine frames in the process.
The strikeouts per nine innings rate was Jansen’s best in a full season since the 2017 campaign, and he’ll look to keep the momentum going in his new home in Boston with the Red Sox. While that move is obviously fantasy-relevant due to the pairing of Jansen’s effectiveness and what should amount to the lion’s share of save chances in Boston, it does impact the rest of the Red Sox relievers' fantasy ceilings.
Before, John Schreiber and Tanner Houck each possessed interesting fantasy upside as bullpen options who could each provide fantasy managers with low ERA and WHIP numbers to go along with strikeout contributions and a potentially significant slice of the pie where Boston’s 2023 save chances were concerned.
Schreiber finished the 2022 season with a 2.22 ERA, a 2.50 FIP, and 74 strikeouts in 65 innings compared to just 19 walks and three home runs allowed. He logged six saves.
Houck, meanwhile, finished with a 2.70 ERA, a 3.34 FIP, and a .262 wOBA against him in 43.1 innings as a reliever last season. He finished with eight saves.
Furthermore, Schreiber paced all Boston relievers in high-leverage appearances last season, while Houck registered a save in eight of his final 18 appearances. The duo was clearly trusted in key situations.
Now, any hope of either flirting with double-digit save totals while chipping in with contributions in other categories seems to have all but evaporated with the Jansen signing. If Boston utilizes Jansen in the same way Atlanta did, it’s likely that he won’t pitch earlier than the ninth inning much. Last season, 62 of the relievers' 65 appearances came either in the ninth inning or extra innings.
In other words, for now, almost all of the save opportunities in the Boston bullpen look like they’ll be heading Jansen’s way.
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