RADIO
If you thought last week was nuts, rivalry week really brought it this year. Harbaugh finally got rid of that monkey on his back on the back of Hassan Haskins tying a school record with five rushing touchdowns in a game. The Iron Bowl featured the first overtime ever in the series. It was so much fun, it took four of them to decide the outcome.
We saw one of the most bizarre endings to a game I have ever seen in the War on I-4. Wisconsin choked on Gopher to miss out on a rematch with Michigan. Lincoln Riley was so embarrassed about the Bedlam loss that he bolted to USC practically overnight. He has two dogs named "Boomer" and "Sooner." That might be a little awkward. We had a whole bunch of kerfuffles going on, and even a punch thrown in the Florida-Florida State game. There's nothing quite like rivalry week!
All 65 of those glorious games that I picked were played. Judging by what I've seen so far, I think I may be in for a bad week. Bad enough to make up for all the good I came away with last week. I hope that's not the case after the 4-0 start that I was proud of, but we'll see. We're going to do things a little bit differently this week. We only have 11 games total and none before Friday, so only the results of Week 13 will be in this piece. All of the spread picks will be in one article this week.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 13 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I went heavy on BYU and Michigan State, so even if I came out okay on the 65, I came out behind in real life. Not enough to give back everything I won last week, but enough to piss me off. At least I finally won some money on Nebraska and Oklahoma!
Buffalo at Ball State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ball State jumped out fast, but slowed down quite a bit. They are going bowling, but this offense is nowhere near as potent as it was last year.
Western Michigan(-3.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I flipped on this game after learning that Rocky Lombardi was out. I did update the article with about 20 minutes so spare. Good thing I did. Kaleb Eleby had arguably his best game of the season. Skyy Moore caught four of his five touchdown passes.
Fresno State(-7.5) at San Jose State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fresno needed a game like this heading into the bowl game. What they did not need was coach Kalen DeBoer getting poached by Washington before said bowl....
(9)Mississippi at Mississippi State(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Dontario Drummond isn't bothered by cowbells. That's what I learned from this year's Egg Bowl.
Boise State(-2.5) at (21)San Diego State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What a story of redemption for Jordon Brookshire and what a monumental collapse by Boise State. They were dominating this game for the first 25 minutes or so. The key here is they didn't have a 100-yard rusher. George Holani, despite a great effort, finished with 70. That equals a Boise loss.
Kansas State at Texas(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The beginning of the end of my week. Roschon Johnson ran wild on the Wildcats. He was about the only back that had sustained success against that defense this year.
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Lew Nichols III is the best running back you've never heard of. Watch his bowl game! How many other guys carry 44 times in a game anymore?
Ohio(-6.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That.....that is what Bowling Green is capable of. ****ing up my day.
Utah State(-14.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm kind of sad that New Mexico's season is over. No more easy cover picks for me! Logan Bonner put on a show by accounting for all five touchdowns in this game.
(16)Iowa at Nebraska(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska became the first team ever to lose nine games by single digits in one season. How is that even possible? The argument that Nebraska is the best three-win team ever holds water. Still, if they were really that good, they would have won some of those games, yeah? They outscored opponents by 55 points overall. Blowout wins over Fordham and Northwestern helped create the statistical anomaly that was the 2021 Nebraska Cornhuskers. This was the seventh straight loss to Iowa.
UTEP at UAB(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UTEP held tough for much of the game, but the UAB defense took over in the second half.
(4)Cincinnati(-14.5) at East Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Once again, Cincinnati left little doubt about who was the best team on the field. Honestly, that's what they need to do.
Missouri at (25)Arkansas(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Strangely enough, this may have been Missouri's best defensive performance of the season. Of course, it didn't hurt that Tyler Badie still ran for 219 yards in the loss....
South Florida at Central Florida(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Here we are, more than a week later, and I'm still trying to figure out how this game is over. How can a game possibly end on an interception that never happened. They reviewed it to make sure it never happened. The knee was down. How to they know USF couldn't have got back to the line and run a play in nine seconds? There should have been one more play.
Coastal Carolina(-15.5) at South Alabama: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I flipped to USA with Bentley playing. His 354 passing yards made that a good decision.
UNLV at Air Force(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nope, no scare here. UNLV's newfound passing game never got going here. That Air Force pass defense is surprisingly good.
Colorado at (19)Utah(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Now we can infer that Colorado is better than Oregon, at least at the end of the season.....
TCU at Iowa State(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Breece Hall went for 242 and three touchdowns, setting a NCAA record for most consecutive games with a touchdown. Is that a big enough game for you?
North Carolina at (20)North Carolina State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a great game, as a rivalry should be. North Carolina State needed every bit of those 60 minutes to get the comeback win.
Washington State at Washington(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Big losses in a rivalry game like this are the reason coaches get fired.....and voila! Coach fired.
(1)Georgia(-35.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nice tune-up for Georgia. I think it may have been in their favor if someone had given them a test before Bama. We'll see.....
(2)Ohio State(-7.5) at Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The fighting Harbaughs finally did it! Eight games. Nearly a decade of losing. All that is forgotten. Someone get Hassan Haskins a raise!
Texas Tech at (8)Baylor(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas Tech has played well since the firing of Matt Wells. It's not like Blake Shapen played poorly either. Baylor is in good hands when Gerry Bohanon's time is done.
(18)Wake Forest(-4.5) at Boston College: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's games like this make me wonder just how good Wake really is. The defense completely shut down the passing attack of Boston College. If they could have the offense and defense hit at the same time, look out....
(24)Houston(-32.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's why I hate lines like this. Houston knew they had Cincy next on the docket and didn't want to get their stars hurt once the game was out of hand.
Florida State at Florida(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Seminoles gave it a fight in more ways than one, but came up just short.
Maryland(-1.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I knew this line was a joke. It's going to be fun to watch Taulia Tagovailoa in a bowl game.....finally!
Army at Liberty(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No oversight by Army here. Or by their arch-rivals.
Navy(-12.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, at least Temple tried different things and didn't just take the loss lying down....
Miami(OH)(-1.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow....what a game this was! It didn't necessarily fit the rivalry week motif, but it might have been the best game of the weekend! 95 combined points and a missed extra point in overtime is all it took to decide this one.
Akron at Toledo(-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Toledo is sure fun to watch when they're firing on all cylinders.
Miami(FL)(-21.5) at Duke: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ditto for Miami. It's crazy to think that they won by 37 and didn't score in the fourth quarter.
Louisiana Tech(-3.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Believe it or not, Rice won more games than the Bulldogs did.
(22)UTSA(-10.5) at North Texas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was quite a performance by North Texas on both sides of the ball. They should have just started Austin Aune from the beginning and been done with it.....
Charlotte at Old Dominion(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I let the early performances of Charlotte and Old Dominion cloud my pick. The way the Monarchs finished the season – and made a bowl after a 1-6 start – is who they are now. The switch to Hayden Wolff at quarterback turned the fortunes of Old Dominion around.
Texas State at Arkansas State(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arkansas State's inability to stop Calvin Hill really hurt them here. Even Layne Hatcher couldn't save them from their defense.
Troy at Georgia State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Boy, am I glad I talked myself out of Troy!
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That stupid half! This game was never close and the Mountaineers still didn't cover.
Florida International at Southern Mississippi(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The newfangled offense that the Eagles are running sure makes them look like a good team. They only tried it about eight games too late....
Massachusetts at New Mexico State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How can you tell if you're a bad football team? Getting your ass handed to you by perennial doormat New Mexico State is a pretty solid indicator....
Hawaii at Wyoming(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Hawaii needed this win for a home bowl game. I should have taken that into account.
(3)Alabama(-20.5) at Auburn: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What a defensive performance by Auburn. This was the first overtime ever in Iron Bowl history and it took four of them to decide the game. It was also the first time in 114 games that Auburn had lost a game when leading by double digits in the fourth quarter.
Oregon State at (11)Oregon(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took 20 fourth quarter points for the Beavers to make this respectable, but it was never really close.
Penn State(-1.5) at (12)Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was a nice snow-bowl. That definitely favored Michigan State. They rode it (and Kenneth Walker III) to victory.
Western Kentucky at Marshall(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
47 second half points by the Hilltoppers certainly turned this into a laugher, but if Grant Wells hadn't left the game due to injury with Marshall up two touchdowns, I don't think this game would have had the same result. Marshall was dominant before the Wells injury.
Northwestern at Illinois(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Way to have some pride, Northwestern.....
Indiana at Purdue(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I didn't realize just how done Indiana was until this. It's one thing to lose to a rival. It's another to get blown entirely off the field.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee(-32.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you lose by 24 points and don't get covered, does that still count as a moral victory? Asking for a friend and Vanderbilt alum.....
Virginia Tech at Virginia(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I missed the over bet on this too. The Virginia Tech defense stepped up to make sure that most of Brennan Armstrong's 400 passing yards were empty ones.
(14)Wisconsin(-7.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If the Big Ten(14) Championship game is a laugher, blame the Gophers.
Tulsa at SMU(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I also didn't take into account that Tulsa needed this win to make a bowl game. I still would have never taken them outright in Dallas though.
Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I never expected the game to be this close, but a win is a win.
Arizona at Arizona State(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona fell apart after a couple of key errors in the third quarter. At least it didn't feel like they got blown out, I guess.....
(15)Texas A&M(-6.5) at LSU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tell me how good of a loss Alabama's slip up against A&M was again? Watch this game and tell me truthfully that a two-loss Alabama should be in over Cincinnati or a one-loss Big 12(10) Champion. However, the real question is: do you let Orgeron coach the bowl game? After Brian Kelly's truly embarrassing faux-southern accent, they better!
Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was another nice game for N'Kosi Perry, but his defense failed him.....again.....
West Virginia(-16.5) at Kansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know about you, but I'm really looking forward to watching Kansas next year. Jalon Daniels is going to be a good one.
(10)Oklahoma at (7)Oklahoma State(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The half goes my way this time, but for less points. I'm upset at how Lincoln Riley left, but truth be told, he was on his way out before this game. That's the only way to explain this meltdown. Oklahoma should have had a rematch in Dallas this week without Jaylen Warren. Instead, the program is in a bit if disarray. I'm not as worried about it as some are, but I wish Riley would have handled the situation better than he did. Still, he did a good job as the coach and I don't wish ill of him. If you need to rehome Boomer and Sooner, hit me up. I'll take them.
(17)Pittsburgh(-12.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Orange kept it close for a while, but the Pitt rushing attack was just too much. Maybe more accurately, too many. They kept rotating in fresh backs to gouge the defense.
(23)Clemson(-12.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There was no game here. Just cocks.....getting shut out by their rival.
Kentucky at Louisville(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. I should have went higher on this. Sometimes I get in my own way a little too much....
Tulane at Memphis(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Another stupid half-point loss. I really wish Memphis hadn't gone for two, but they needed to.....
(6)Notre Dame(-20.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have trusted the Irish to do the same. I like David Shaw, but I think he lost this team.
Nevada(-3.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I expected a little more from the Rams in the 2021 swan song. So did Vegas. We got nothing of the sort. I think a Fort Collins high school team showed up....
(13)BYU(-6.5) at USC: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If you only looked at the stats, you would swear BYU dominated this game. They certainly could have....if the only could have gotten out of their own way....
California at UCLA(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
More easy money. Again, I should have bet more of it. UCLA turned out to be a pretty good team.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I was afraid I had a bad week, but it turned out to be another solid one. I went 34-31 this week to push me to 363-357 heading into Championship week. My goal of 55% seems a ways off now. My more realistic goal is to keep it above 50%. That's pretty hard picking every game!
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 6-4 (60-72) = -12
2. 12-12 (138-147) = -18
3. 13-11 (119-81) = 114
4. 2-3 (28-36) = -32
5. 1-1 (18-21) = -15
I made another four points this week as the three-point bets continue to be my strong suit. That means I am up 37 points on the season and up 61 points in nearly five years of doing this. We still have Championship week and the bowls to go. There's still more money out there!
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