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Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Jared Goff, K.J. Osborn, Kenneth Gainwell, and more.
Only eight quarterbacks eclipsed 20 fantasy points in Week 13 with Kyler Murray leading the way, throwing for just 123 yards, two touchdowns and adding two more scores on the ground. Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, torching the Falcons for 368 yards and four touchdowns to finish as QB-2 and Justin Herbert came out of the gates on fire against the Bengals, topping 300 yards and three touchdowns. Taysom Hill was QB-4 with 101 yards on the ground, Matthew Stafford had a big week against the Jaguars and Zach Wilson scored three times to round out the top-six. The rest of the QB1's had average performances. George Kittle went off for 181 yards and two scores to finish as the clear TE-1 and Dallas Goedert enjoyed Gardner Minshew throwing the ball his way in route to 105 yards and two touchdowns of his own. Rob Gronkowski, T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas each scored, while all of the remaining TE1's finished with less than 10 fantasy points on the week.
Justin Jefferson, Diontae Johnson, Tee Higgins and Cooper Kupp were the top-four wide receivers in Week 13, each going over 100 yards and scoring. Chris Godwin (WR-5) was targeted 17 times and finished with 15 catches for 143 yards, Keenan Allen (WR-6) only gained 34 yards but he scored twice and Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR-7) salvaged his day with a touchdown on the final play of the game. Deonte Harris, Elijah Moore, Jalen Guyton, Russell Gage and Tyler Lockett rounded out the WR1's for the week.
Javonte Williams finally got his shot to be the man in the Broncos backfield and he took full advantage of the situation, touching the ball 29 times, gaining 178 yards-from-scrimmage and scoring once to finish as RB-1. Jonathan Taylor (RB-2) toted the ball 32 times and scored twice, David Montgomery (RB-3) gained 141 scrimmage-yards, Sony Michel (RB-4) went over 100 yards on the ground filling in for Darrell Henderson and Alexander Mattison (RB-5) rushed for 90 yards and scored in place of Dalvin Cook. Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, James Conner, Kenneth Gainwell and Damien Harris rounded out the RB1 group. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 13 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.
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Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Week 13 Stats: 25-of-41 passing, 296 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
The Vikings defense was depleted this week, missing Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Patrick Peterson. Jared Goff and the Lions took full advantage and torched the Vikings through the air (relatively speaking).
Bottom Line: In Week 14 the Lions play against a Broncos defense that just made Patrick Mahomes into a game manager. Don't chase Goff's points next week. Instead, you should be trying to add the Broncos defense from the waiver wire.
Deonte Harris, New Orleans Saints
Week 13 Stats: 8 targets, 4 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD
In Week 13 against the Cowboys Deonte Harris had three catches for 26 yards. Then, with just under three minutes left in the game, the Cowboys secondary was playing back trying to prevent a big play and Deonte Harris caught a ball about six yards downfield, broke a tackle, avoided Trevon Diggs who tried to force a fumble instead of making the tackle, and weaved through blocked defenders for a 70-yard score.
Bottom Line: Deonte Harris has 31 catches for 523 yards and three touchdowns off of 53 targets on the season. Harris has four games on the season with seven-or-more targets and he's eclipsed 70 yards receiving four times. Harris is extremely boom-or-bust and should probably remain on waiver wires unless you're in a very deep league.
Jalen Guyton, L.A. Chargers
Week 13 Stats: 4 targets, 4 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD
In Week 13, Jalen Guyton played just 53.1% of the Chargers offensive snaps which is about his normal compliment for the season. Guyton got deep and made a very impressive and contested 44-yard touchdown catch over Jessie Bates where he had to rip the ball away from him.
Bottom Line: Jalen Guyton is a legitimate deep threat for the Chargers but he simply doesn't get targeted enough to rely on him. Week 13 was the first time Guyton was targeted more than three times since Week 6 and it was the first time he scored this season. Guyton should probably remain on the waiver wire given this was the first time he went over 50 yards on the year unless Keenan Allen misses Week 14 due to COVID. If Allen does miss Week 14, then Guyton would be a viable option in deeper formats.
K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
Week 13 Stats: 7 targets, 4 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD
Adam Thielen went down early in Week 13 with a high ankle sprain and as a result, K.J. Osborn played a season-high 92.1% of the Vikings offensive snaps. Kirk Cousins threw the ball to Osborn seven times on Sunday which was the first time he had more than five targets since Week 7.
Bottom Line: The Vikings will be down a pass target for at least a couple of weeks, so K.J. Osborn has a chance to be a solid low-end WR3 down the stretch, especially since Dalvin Cook is out as well. Osborn is more viable in deeper leagues and should only be used in shallower leagues if you're in trouble at wide receiver.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13 Stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 52 yards
Ja'Marr Chase was WR-37 on the week and currently sits as WR-6 on the season. Since Chase went off for 201 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 7, he has eclipsed 50 yards just once and scored twice. Over that stretch, Ja'Marr Chase has been targeted down-field, but he's had some bad drops. In Week 13, Joe Burrow dropped a pass right into Chase's hands for what should have been a 71-yard score, but instead he bobbled the ball and the Chargers intercepted it.
Bottom Line: It's only a matter of time before Ja'Marr Chase rebounds in a big way so keep rolling him out there in your starting lineup. The Bengals play the 49ers in Week 14 who have a very beatable secondary, so he should have a solid game this week.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13 Stats: 12 carries, 54 yards, 1 TD, 5 targets, 5 catches, 33 yards
The Eagles backfield is a very confusing situation in 2021. Jordan Howard was out in Week 13, leaving Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott to carry the load against a brutal Jets defense. Sanders played 41 snaps (57.7%), Gainwell played 27 (38%) and Scott played just three snaps (4.2%) likely due to illness. Boston Scott did not touch the ball while Sanders had 24 carries and three targets compared to 12 carries and five targets for Gainwell. Miles Sanders appeared to hurt his ankle late in the game which complicates matters, because if he misses time, it's unclear who the starter would be in Week 15 (Eagles are on bye in Week 14) based on how the Eagles handled that situation early in the season.
Bottom Line: This is about as clear as mud, but here's how I see it. If Sanders plays in Week 14, he's the starter. If Sanders and Howard are out, then both Scott and Gainwell will be viable options. If Sanders is out but Howard returns, you cannot trust Gainwell in your starting lineup unless we get news that Gainwell is definitely the starter. Based off the way the Eagles handled this situation earlier in the season I think that's the best we can do.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Week 13 Stats: 12 targets, 9 catches, 181 yards, 2 TD
Deebo Samuel was out for Week 13 which meant the 49ers needed to rely on somebody else to pick up the slack in the passing game. George Kittle answered the bell and brought that same level of physicality after-the-catch that Samuel does on his way to a massive day. Kittle does this from time-to-time, he has a performance that will almost single handedly win you a week. This is the second time that he's gone over 100 yards on the season, and he's now scored in four of the nine games he's played.
Bottom Line: George Kittle is an absolute stud, however, Deebo Samuel will likely return in either Week 14 or Week 15, meaning the 49ers will go back to having three legitimate pass targets. You should obviously roll Kittle out there moving forward in your season-long leagues, but remember he does have an injury history and he can be boom-or-bust, so if somebody blows you away with a trade offer in a dynasty league, you may want to consider selling high.
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