RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Kevin Na shot a 13-under par at the Charles Schwab Challenge, outlasting second-place finisher Tony Finau by four shots. Na has experienced a handful of ups and downs throughout his career, but his victory in Texas will hopefully help to get the American more admiration throughout the golf community. The narrative has far too often been around slow play, his meltdown at TPC San Antonio or walking in putts, but the 31st-ranked player in the world has a been a staple on tour for nearly 15 years and deserves a little respect with almost $30 million in career earnings - good for 38th on the all-time list.
The one thing you will always get with any of my articles is transparency. 2019 has been a fantastic season so far with two outright winners of Matt Kuchar 66/1 at the Mayakoba Classic and Corey Conners 200/1 at the Valero Texas Open. We have also been able to add 25 total top-10 results and a (13-6-2) head-to-head record. However, while all of that is a selling point for why you should tune in weekly for what is happening at the "PGA DFS: Vegas Report," these last three weeks just frankly haven't been great.
We can chalk some of it up to variance and the natural ebbs and flows to gambling, but I haven't been shy when talking about my displeasure for most of these betting cards. All things considered, I think we have done a somewhat decent job in limiting exposure and losing the bare minimum amount possible, but it is time to start getting ourselves back on track. The Memorial is one of the best events of the season, and I believe there is a lot of value for us to find on the card this week. Without further ado, let's dive into some players we will be targeting in Ohio this weekend.
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2019 Memorial
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.
Muirfield Village
7,392 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
For the second straight week, the PGA Tour will roll out an Invitational event. One hundred twenty players are set to tee it up at Muirfield Village, and the field is one of the best you will see in a non-major/WGC tournament. Led by Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose, 32 of the top 50 players in the world will be giving the Ohio venue their best shot.
Muirfield Village is a Nicklaus-designed course that is lengthy when you look at the overall yardage. Forced layups throughout the property even further emphasize the distance, but with some of the widest fairways on tour, players will be able to bomb and gouge in spots. Thirteen water hazards and 73 bunkers are littered throughout the grounds, and the green side sand traps are some of the deadliest on tour.
The Bentgrass greens are lightning quick, and the Memorial consistently ranks inside the bottom-five of all PGA stops in scrambling percentage. Six par-fours range between 450-500 yards and each of those holes plays over par. The four par-fives are where golfers can make a move, and they are reachable to everyone in the field. At the end of the day, approach play will be the most critical statistic, highlighted by the ability to control proximity with a long iron in hand. The last six winners have won the tournament at 10-under par or better, so despite inserting potential hiccup spots throughout the way, the scoring isn't extraordinarily hard.
Memorial Best Bets
#1 Xander Schauffele - 25/1
DK Price $9,000, FD Price $11,100
Is Xander Schauffele playing on Mars this weekend? His $9,000 price tag makes him the 12th most expensive option, yet he is still only projected to be six percent owned. If the DFS industry wants to give me the 25-year-old virtually unowned compared to his counterparts, sign me up.
I believe this is one of the reasons why DFS contests still present a massive edge when we do our research. The industry as a whole is getting more sophisticated with the infinite amount of information available, but sometimes things can be overthought. By no means does this mean Schauffele is a lock for quality production, but these are situations that can provide exceptional value in GPP contests. Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama all come in with a higher price tag and ownership projection, but it is Schauffele who has just one less win than the four players combined since 2017 and one more victory than the four if we include only 2018 and beyond.
Unlike practically any other sport, DFS sites mimic the betting market for golf. That doesn't always mean that a golfer is playable in both respects, but it does help that value tends to coincide across the two industries. Our job is then to decide if ownership projections make a player unusable, what kind of tendencies does a golfer have (cash-game/GPP) and how over/underweight do we want to be to the industry. Each week is a simple math equation that doesn't necessarily have a correct answer, but our job is to evaluate risk versus reward. In this case, Schauffele has the talent of a top-five player in the field, but the ownership and price tag of an inferior golfer. I won't be playing him in cash-game lineups because of his recent volatility, but as a GPP and outright bet at 25/1, he is well worth the risk.
#2 Adam Scott - 35/1
DK Price $8,700, FD Price $10,300
I always prefer to target Adam Scott on Poa greens, but Muirfield Villages' wide fairways have made it difficult for me to ignore the 27th-ranked player in the world. Since struggling to make the U.S. Open last season because of his ranking, Scott has been a changed golfer in his past 14 events. Two top-10 showings at the PGA Championship, a close call at the Masters and two narrow misses at the Northern Trust and Farmers Insurance Open have turned back the clock for the 13-time PGA Tour winner.
When we think of what usually plagues the former UNLV product from having more success weekly, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to pinpoint the struggles he has endured with his putter. However, in his past 12 trackable events, Scott has only lost strokes on the greens twice and has gained over 2.5 strokes with his flat stick five of those times. Unfortunately, a lot of his close calls have still been undone by his inconsistent nature on the greens, but at a venue where he has quietly recorded four straight top-35 finishes since 2013, Scott's ball striking makes him one of the top contenders in the field.
Priced at $8,700 on DraftKings, the Australian is currently projected to be nearly 18 percent owned, but I believe he has both cash-game and GPP playability this weekend in Ohio. His 35/1 outright number is on the very edge of value, but I am willing to eat a slightly marginal price because of his current form and stylistic connection with Muirfield Village.
#3 Henrik Stenson - 50/1
DK Price $8,500, FD Price $10,200
I usually try to go the other direction when everyone in the industry is darting the same way, but it is challenging to ignore Henrik Stenson this weekend. The 43-year-old has put together six consecutive rounds of earning at least 2.5 strokes on his approach shots and has averaged a whopping 5.7 strokes per tournament during that time frame. While all of that sounds like a positive, Stenson has failed to finish in the top-15 in any of those events.
When we look at where the Swede has been struggling, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained around the green and strokes gained putting have all been areas of concern. In theory, Muirfield's wide fairways should help to negate some of his inconsistency off the tee, not to mention that strokes gained around the green have never been a massive indicator for success at the property either. Players will have to deal with tricky bunker shots, but Stenson's ability to scramble has slowly been coming around recently.
That leaves us with the issue of putting. I know there has been a lot of conversation throughout the industry of how important putting actually is when it comes to assessing DFS and outright wagers. The best way I can explain it is this: "Putting is one of the most critical statistics weekly but has no long-term predictability." A good putter can be bad for a week, and a lousy putter can lead the field in strokes gained on the greens. I don't believe it is a prominent category that should be included in modeling because of the variance issue, and our goal should always be to find top-notch ball-strikers who will give themselves a plethora of birdie opportunities. Stenson fits that mold at 50/1 and is someone I can't get myself to leave off the card.
#4 Phil Mickelson - 60/1
DK Price $8,100, FD Price $10,100
Phil Mickelson isn't what you would call a ball-striker. He is more of a shot-maker who is one of the better scramblers in the world. Season-long scrambling rankings would never agree with that assessment because Mickelson has a propensity to get himself into virtually inescapable trouble, but the American is a modern-day Houdini on the golf course.
On the season, Mickelson enters the week ranked 207th out of 208 qualifying golfers in driving accuracy, but with Muirfield Village having a nearly 70 percent driving accuracy rate, the venue might even have enough room for the 48-year-old to spray the ball a bit off the tee. It must be noted that the rough is penal if you do miss the fairways, but the Memorial is a tournament where placement off the tee often outweighs driving distance, and that might not be a negative thing to get the driver out of Mickelson's hands.
Mickelson's $8,100 price tag on DraftKings and five percent projected ownership makes him one of the more interesting contrarian GPP plays on the board, and his course history of three top-22 results in the past three seasons shows that he is capable of competing at the track. I have him rated at 40/1 and believe we are receiving nearly 20 points of value at his current number.
#5 Marc Leishman - 60/1
DK Price $8,000, FD Price $9,800
If you aren't one of a select few players in the world, prices tend to fluctuate severely after a few poor results. It wouldn't have been inconceivable a few months ago that Leishman would have been somewhere between the 25/1 to 35/1 range in your standard non-major event. However, a few wishy-washy results in a row have ballooned Leishman up to nearly 60/1 and started to present a ton of value if we are hoping to see the Aussie turn things around here shortly.
Leishman is a world-class ball-striker who has shown the ability to win all over the world, but the last time we saw him tee it up resulted in a missed cut at the PGA Championship. His actual performance wasn't that bad, but the 24th-ranked player in the world lost five strokes on the greens in his two rounds. Leishman isn't necessarily an elite putter, but over his previous 178 tournaments, he has gained 0.2 strokes per event with his flat stick - making him a breakeven putter for the majority of his career. However, in his past five contests, Leishman has lost 2.7 strokes on the greens and struggled mightily to get anything going.
Despite being ranked 24th in the world, the 35-year-old has been placed in a territory on both DFS sites and in the outright market that is more indicative of him being a borderline top 50 golfer. His $8,000 price tag and seven percent projected ownership provides a ton of contrarian value in GPP contests, and his 60/1 outright price is worth a flier given his skillset.
#6 Keegan Bradley - 80/1
DK Price $7,600, FD Price $9,200
A projected 17 percent of DFS lineups playing Keegan Bradley...what could possibly go wrong?! I haven't decided yet what to do with Bradley in fantasy, but his 80/1 outright price is an entirely different story.
The American has posted three top-25 finishes at Muirfield Village in the past four years and enters the week ranked third on tour in strokes gained approach and third in proximity from over 200+ yards. Putting will always be the main culprit for why Bradley fails to provide better results weekly, but Bentgrass is the one surface where the 32-year-old has been around breakeven throughout his career. If you decide to fade him at his $7,600 price tag on DraftKings, that is one thing, but he is one of the better values on the outright card at 80/1.
DraftKings Cash-Game Play of the Week
Matt Kuchar - $9,400
Matt Kuchar is currently projected to be the highest owned player on DraftKings at nearly 25 percent, but I have no issues with filling the American in as the staple to my cash-game lineups. Kuchar has posted 11 straight cuts at the event, including 10 top-15 finishes and a victory in 2013. His worst showing came in 2015 when he recorded a share of 26th place, and this decision doesn't need to be overcomplicated. His popularity will drive me away in GPPs, but there is nothing wrong with eating chalk when the situation presents itself.
DraftKings GPP Play of the Week
Xander Schauffele - $9,000
(See above for reasoning)
My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week
Key Stats: SG Approach 20%, Proximity From 150+ Yards 15%, Par-Four Average 15%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage 15%, Scrambling 12.5%, Sand Save Percentage 12.5% and Strokes Gained Putting 10%
75% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley -110
Jason Kokrak $8,200 price tag on DraftKings vs. Kyle Stanley $7,800 price tag on DraftKings
Jason Kokrak 9.5 percent projected ownership vs. Kyle Stanley 10.6 percent projected ownership
1.10 Units to Win 1.00
Kyle Stanley's history at Muirfield Village has been impressive. Four made cuts in four attempts, which includes a sixth-place showing in 2017 and a runner-up playoff loss to Bryson DeChambeau last season. Ball striking has always been Stanley's forte, so it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that he has found success at this Nicklaus design. However, the issue with using nothing but course history is that it fails to tell the complete story of how the American has faltered in recent months. Stanley has missed seven of his last 13 cuts and has steadily dropped down the rankings since the year began.
On the other hand, Jason Kokrak has become a model of consistency as of late, providing 21 straight made cuts and 13 top-25 results. It is possible that Stanley can find his groove at a venue that has been generous to him in the past, but this price is entirely predicated on past performances and fails to recognize the current form of the 31-year-old. There are just some situations in gambling where you tip your cap if a player/team is able to strike out of nowhere, and this feels like one of those spots. Stanley has some GPP appeal because of his past history, but when we are trying to target opponents who have a higher probability to miss the cut than others in their price range, the 52nd-ranked player in the world fits that bill.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (13-6-2)
+8.07 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
|
Valero Texas Open |
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MDF (+1) |
MC (+4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Masters |
Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T12 (-8) |
T29 (-4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Wells Fargo Championship |
Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie |
0.75 Units to win 0.90 |
2nd (-12) |
T18 (-5) |
Win |
0.90 |
|
Byron Nelson |
Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+5) |
T59 (-7) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
PGA Championship |
Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+8) |
T54 (+9) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66/1 |
1 |
|
Corey Conners |
Valero Texas Open |
200/1 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110/1 |
T2 |
|
Dustin Johnson |
Masters |
12/1 |
T2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80/1 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80/1 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10/1 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35/1 |
T3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60/1 |
T3 |
|
Scott Piercy |
RBC Heritage |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60/1 |
T4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13/1 |
T5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45/1 |
T5 |
|
Jason Day |
Masters |
40/1 |
T5 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25/1 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60/1 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28/1 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30/1 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150/1 |
T10 |
|
Troy Merritt |
RBC Heritage |
250/1 |
T10 |
