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Expert Week 1 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
Week 1 is a special time in the NFL. Every team has hope, every fan base has hype, and the betting markets are at their least predictive, trying to catch up to changes from the offseason. That makes it a perfect playground for prop bettors looking to spot market mismatches early.
Anytime and first touchdown scorer props are some of the most exciting markets on the betting board. You’re not sweating spreads, totals, or cumulative yardage; you’re zeroed in on who finds the end zone. That popularity has made anytime touchdown bets one of the most efficient markets in NFL betting in recent years.
This column will look to pinpoint positive expected value using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. The end product is a probability projection that helps to highlight the touchdown edge. Results will be tracked week-over-week using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
Jonathan Taylor, RB - Indianapolis Colts (-175)
If you are looking for a Week 1 anchor, look no further than JT. The 26-year-old led the NFL last season with an 88.4% opportunity share and scored eight touchdowns in his seven home games. He should rival those marks again this year, especially considering rushing TD vulture Anthony Richardson will not be under center for the foreseeable future.
Taylor faces off against the Dolphins on Opening Weekend. Miami’s defense was bottom-eight in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed last year, with 12, largely correlated with facing the fifth-fewest rushing attempts on the season.
QB Daniel Jones will make his Colts debut on Sunday. Look for the Colts to lean on Taylor behind PFF’s fifth-ranked offensive line to start the season.
Alvin Kamara, RB - New Orleans Saints (-105)
Kamara is another veteran RB showing value in Week 1. He is no stranger to starting the season strong, finishing with 18 or more PPR fantasy points in four of his last five Week 1 outings.
With QB Spencer Rattler under center, Kamara is in for a heavy workload on the ground and through the air. He will look to pick up right where he left off last year, when he averaged 21.1 touches per game.
While Kamara is game script-proof as a safety blanket for Rattler, the Cardinals will be particularly susceptible to the run early on. They gave up an average of 4.6 yards per rushing attempt last year, eighth worst in the NFL. Kamara is much more likely to score than his 51% implied probability would suggest. He makes a great outright or parlay pick this weekend.
MOST VALUABLE ROLES
Highest Expected Fantasy Points per Team Play among RBs:
1. Alvin Kamara (0.31)
2. Chuba Hubbard (0.29)
3. Jonathan Taylor (0.28)
4. Bijan Robinson (0.28)
5. Joe Mixon (0.28)
6. Kyren Williams (0.28)
7. Kenneth Walker (0.27) pic.twitter.com/TPQQjLW7Rs— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 14, 2025
Kenneth Walker III, RB - Seattle Seahawks (+115)
Walker III and the Seahawks have an appealing opportunity in Week 1 against the 49ers, who gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season. By comparison, the Seahawks scored 17 rushing touchdowns last season, with the veteran running back accounting for seven of those in his 11 starts.
As the third player on this list with a new quarterback under center, Seattle is likely to rely on their run game to set the tone against a divisional opponent. Walker III also scored in each of his two games against the 49ers last season while averaging 19 touches in those contests.
Zach Charbonnet is also showing value at +370 to score a touchdown, although his opportunity is likely coming later this season in more obvious passing game scripts. Look at Walker III for anytime or first touchdown bets this weekend.
Jayden Daniels, QB - Washington Commanders (+165)
All the hype this offseason has centered around Washington’s running back room, but it is sophomore QB Jayden Daniels who is showing the most anytime touchdown value this week.
Daniels scored 6 rushing touchdowns last year, including two in Week 1. He finished a close second among QBs in both rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns, averaging 7.8 rush attempts per game. His opponent this week, the New York Giants, finished last year seventh-worst in rushing yards per attempt (4.6) and eighth-worst in first downs given up on the ground.
The Commanders are favored by 6.5 points on Sunday with an implied point total of 45.5. In a game that Washington should control early on, Daniels is a great bet to find pay dirt on Opening Weekend.
Jameson Williams, WR - Detroit Lions (+220)
Year three finally went as planned for Jameson Williams. The former first-round pick had his coming-out party, with over 1,000 yards and eight total touchdowns - doubling the total from his first two years combined. An obvious rapport developed with QB Jared Goff as the season wore on, evidenced by the seven or more targets Williams got in six of the team’s final seven games (he only reached that mark twice in the eight games he played in prior).
The narrative coming into this game will include doubt circling the Lions' offense with the departure of OC Ben Johnson this past offseason, while all eyes will be on Green Bay’s new acquisition on defense, Micah Parsons. New offensive coordinator John Morton had a penchant for the downfield passing game last year in Denver with rookie QB Bo Nix, which could bode well for Williams. Jamo was 13th among receivers last year in yards after catch while ranking 35th in air yards and 53rd in deep targets, despite his big play ability.
Look for the Lions to target Green Bay’s secondary on the outside this weekend, which is no doubt the weakness of their defense to start the season. Williams is likely to be the primary beneficiary and is a good bet to beat his 31% implied probability.
David Njoku, TE - Cleveland Browns (+235)
Our long-odds pick of the week goes to veteran tight end David Njoku, who shows value this week with QB Joe Flacco under center. In five career games with Flacco, Njoku has four touchdowns while averaging nine targets and 78 receiving yards.
Njoku and the Browns start their season against the Bengals, who gave up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year. With mixed quarterback play last year, Njoku still managed the sixth-most targets among tight ends and the fifth-best red zone target share with 29.3%.
The Browns enter the season with question marks in the backfield and an unimpressive offensive line on paper, ranked 27th by PFF to start the season. In a clear passing game script for the Browns against an explosive Bengals offense, Cleveland is likely to be playing from behind early. With Cleveland’s running back situation still in flux, look for Flacco to put the ball in the reliable hands of Njoku in the red zone.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Pick
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (+600)
Bettors who wake up feeling dangerous this weekend may look at taking a shot on first touchdown scorers. While these bets have a significant amount of volatility, they can be an especially good pivot to get action on a workhorse running back whose anytime touchdown odds may be less favourable. That is the case with Hubbard this week.
The veteran averaged over 15 carriers per game over his last 16 games of 2024; meanwhile, the Jaguars gave up 19 rushing touchdowns last year, enough for the 10th-most in the NFL. Hubbard also has very little competition in the backfield and will look to build on his 52 red zone touches from a year ago. If the Panthers can strike first on Sunday, it will likely be with Hubbard.
