Fantasy Basketball Risers, Rookies and Draft Sleepers (Southwest Division) - Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Jabari Smith

October 9, 2022

Antonio's fantasy basketball draft sleepers, risers, targets, avoids and NBA rookies for the Southwest Division. Depth chart analysis for the 2022-23 season.

The regular season is inching closer by the day, and most offseason moves have already been completed – barring a surprising Russell Westbrook trade, or the pending Jae Crowder deal when/if Phoenix finds a proper partner before tip-off day. Each team's depth chart is mostly complete, so it makes sense to start analyzing how it could work come October. Before diving into the fantasy season, RotoBaller has you covered with some last-minute basketball depth chart recaps for each team, including some useful bits of analysis for players you want to keep on your radar.

The charts below are based on career usage rates while the rosters have been updated to reflect these off-season moves. The charts don't include players drafted this summer, although they are factored into the depth charts; in other words, you'll find some charts "missing" a player at a certain position/role in the charts below, as we don't have data about them regarding usage percentage in the NBA yet but we can already predict where they'll slot in their franchise's rotation. That being said, comments will be made on rookies when deemed necessary in each team breakdown.

Here are the current preseason depth charts for the Western Conference Southwest Division.

Dallas Mavericks - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: None

There has been a lot of discussion about the most impactful players joining Dallas this season: big men JaVale McGee and Christian Wood. Will McGee get the starting nod at center with Wood backing him up off the pine? Will both start with Wood at the PF spot? Will Wood start at the center? Tons of questions, but one thing is clear and that is that Wood is entering a contract year so you know he'll be giving it all during the minutes and opportunities he gets on the court.

Wood is coming off two top-100 OVR fantasy seasons and last year he exploded for a top-10 finish among C-eligible players. That said, it's also true that he got to handle usage rates above 23% in his two seasons in Houston while hoisting 15+ and almost 13 FGA a pop. Dallas isn't going to take any touches from Luka Doncic, is what I'm saying and that could impact Wood's numbers a bit. I wouldn't worry, though, and I'd still draft Wood as the player he's proved to be in the past two years (hoping for another healthy season – he missed 41 games in 2021).

Doncic is Doncic. That's all that needs to be said about the little genius. No more Jalen Brunson in Dallas means Spencer Dinwiddie's role gets molly-increased next season: I'd reasonably expect a re-do of his 2022 WAS/DAL split season as his floor (13-4-5 on 29 MPG). Tim Hardaway Jr. will give you points but not much more than that. Davis Bertans feels like an afterthought.

I'd keep a close eye on Dorian Finney-Smith's season. He's about to hit the pine for the first time after starting nightly and playing 33 MPG in the last few seasons so he's entering uncharted territory. He sucked on a per-minute/efficiency basis to a putrid 0.71 FP/min (league average at 0.90) but he might find his best version in this new role as part of the second unit. Ridiculous 47/39/67 shooting splits last season (60.2 true shooting percentage) on 8+ FGA and 5+ 3PA per game.

Memphis Grizzlies - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: None

The DC above shows Jaren Jackson Jr. starting at the PF1 spot but that won't happen until we flip the calendar page as he's expected to miss four-to-six months of play. Ugh. You can fade him come draft day because by the time he's back he won't be of much help for fantasy GMs on season-long leagues. That said, if you can stash-and-deploy him late in the year and that counts in your favor, definitely do so because the potential is immense and he'll need to get ready for the postseason run at some point.

Focusing on what is actually available, Ja Morant keeps ascending and is a lock for a perennial top-30 OVR finish in the next 10 years. Yes, even missing games: he only appeared in 57 last season and he still was a top-15 G and nearly top-25 in all fantasy leagues.

Memphis is the Golden State of yesteryear with the whole "Strength In Numbers" motto, only Lite. That's because no other player than Morant averaged more than 32 FPPG in daily contests last season although four of them finished with 27+ FPPG and two more above 20+ FPPG. There is a lot of depth in this roster, so you can grab a bunch of great contributors with late draft picks or via WW.

The one true huge sleeper, though, is Steven Adams. Even with JJJ playing next to him last year, Adams was good for a top-75 OVR finish and top-15 at the C position. He's flying totally under the radar but contributing a sound 7-10-3-1 line every game. Kiwi Killer. Don't hesitate and grab some shares.

Tyus Jones was fantastic with Morant out injured and that earned him a new deal to stay in Memphis. He isn't that great on a per-minute basis but he will post up numbers as the only viable option at PG in the team. He's definitely one – if not the – better backup-PGs in the NBA. When it comes to efficiency, though, it's all about Brandon Clarke.

Clarke played 64 games starting one of them and logging 19 MPG. I see Robert Williams III's potential here, folks, and I'm not lying. Clarke kept up 64/22/65 shooting splits (66% true shooting!) on 7 FGA and 2 FTA per game. He finished the year averaging a 10-5-1 line with 1.1 BPG. Again: he didn't even play 20 MGP...Give this man his 32 minutes a pop, and you're looking at some 15-9-2 line with upside for more now that JJJ is out.

Desmond Bane is going to be a little bit more expensive to acquire via draft pick, but he's well worth it with a ridiculous 7 3PA per game hit at a dumb 43.6% clip last year. The FT% also exploded to 90.3% on 2 FTA per game, and the overall contribution was fantastic at 18-4-2-1. Dillon Brooks' scoring numbers were gaudy (18+ PPG), but if I'm honest, I don't trust him.

San Antonio Spurs - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: Malaki Branham (SG), Jeremy Sochan (PF)

It's going to be a long year ahead for the Spurs with their season basically looking like a warm-up toward picking 1-2-3 in the next draft. Rookies Branham and Sochan might or might not be impactful in their freshman years, but one thing is clear and that is that they will inevitably get some reps because there are not many bodies around worth playing above the rooks.

No additions to the team when it comes to the starters as all of them were already rostered and in San Antonio last season – of course, with Dejounte Murray off to Atlanta. As ridiculous as it sounds, only Keldon Johnson got a usage rate above 20% last year among those remaining in tow. He's expected to be the one getting the most touches this season – another thing is if he'll make the most of them (he's coming off a 0.95 FP/min year, which was pretty much league average).

Jakob Poeltl is the best asset in this team by a good mile. He has yet to have a double-double season but the 13-9-3 (with 1.7 BPG) was the closest he's ever been to it and if we're honest that's the minimum expectation from him entering the 2023 campaign. Zach Collins could be great, but that's a big could because he played 500 minutes last season after missing the prior two virtually entirely (290 minutes in 2020, none in 2021).

There are a lot of young guys here and that means boom/bust potential is all over the place. It also means that if you're a very risk-averse fantasy GM you're probably not going to be fishing in the Spurs pond. Other than the percentages coming off Doug McDermott's shooting splits (46/42/73) on reasonable volume and Devin Vassell/Isaiah Roby's low-level contributions on all fronts there is nothing to get from San Antonio.

New Orleans Pelicans - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: None

Two quick thoughts about the Pelicans. One: draft Zion Williamson by any means necessary whether he eventually gets injured or not. That might happen, or it might not. At least we know that Zion is ready for the regular season's tip-off and that's a win already. Two: draft Jonas Valanciunas by (almost) any means necessary. Not a lot of big men will play to JoVal's level and the price isn't that high.

Valanciunas is coming off a silly 18-11-2 season and while he will now share the paint with Zion it's not that he shouldn't suffer that much. In fact, if some GMs are scared off of him because of that and his ADP drops a bit more then Valanciunas might be the steal of the draft.

CJ McCollum's and Ingram's 22 PPG last season might go down a tick with Zion back, but they shouldn't really drop from hitting 19/20 points a pop. Devonte' Graham might be the one feeling the impact the most, though, now a surefire off-the-pine player with CJ manning the point. Even if Graham finds a way to start at the PG spot, the points will go down and I don't think the APG/RPG will rise because he will be surrounded by creators in CJ/BI/Zion.

I'd throw a dart toward Willy Hernangomez if only because of his Eurobasket play this summer, which was absolutely bonkers. If you don't trust that type of thing, though, you might still find his elite-level 1.23 (!!!) FP/min is appealing enough. There will be minutes upfront because outside of JV/Zion there is only Jaxson Hayes to man the paint in New Orleans. Hernangomez put up an impossible-in-17-MPG 9-7-1 line that would translate to a much tastier 13-10 even if his playing time gets increased to a reasonable 25 MPG. I'm definitely betting on that.

Houston Rockets - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: Jabari Smith (PF), TyTy Washington (PG)

Houston is definitely years away from contending but they're slowly but surely building toward an eventual postseason run. Keyword: slowly. Just the fact that I have added two names to the impact rookies line above tells you all you need to know. TyTy Washington is a long shot to really have any fantasy impact but it made sense to highlight him because the Rockets only have one better PG and he's not even a true/classic point guard.

Speaking of Kevin Porter Jr., he finally exploded last season with a top-80 OVR finish in most fantasy leagues. He did it thanks to playing 31 MPG over 61 G, but still. The line read 15-4-6-1 for the second season in a row and he was able to sustain it over x2.5 times the minutes he logged in 2021 so you can trust KPJ doing it all over again.

With Christian Wood out, and Jabari Smith in there is nothing really pointing toward Alperen Sengun and/or any other forward/big getting a huge boost in their stats. They might see a little bump up, but nothing remarkable enough to chase – let alone draft – them. You draft Jabari without double-guessing your decision, of course, and won't probably regret it.

Jalen Green is a very very legitimate basketball player, just in case you had not noticed yet. Green can easily become a 20+ PPG scorer for years to come and he will have to endure softer defenses as Houston's squad keeps improving. The season-long stat line is much worse than what he did in the last stages of it putting up a 20-3-3 line with a 59%+ true shooting percentage.

Eric Gordon still lives and even though Houston will probably move on from him as early as before the next trade deadline he's one of the best veterans and oft-available fantasy players you can use to bolster your roster.

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