Rest-of-Season Starting Pitcher Rankings (Midseason Update)

July 11, 2019

Updated rest of season starting pitcher fantasy baseball rankings for 5x5 roto mixed leagues in July. Our RotoBaller staff's SP rankings feature the #1 most accurate industry expert, Nick Mariano.

The Midsummer Classic has come and gone, leaving us without baseball for what seems like the longest week of the calendar year. Before the second half of the 2019 MLB season gets underway, the RotoBaller staff has updated our fantasy baseball rankings for the remainder of the year. RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel want you to crush the competition and know that rankings don't stop mattering once your draft is over.

Starting pitchers have been the bane of fantasy owners' existence this year. Whether you side with Justin Verlander or not, it's obvious that offense as a whole, especially home runs, are up. That's been bad news for many SP that were drafted in the first few rounds. If you are still in the thick of the race in your mixed roto league, it's critical to find the right pitchers to trust so your ratios don't tank.

Throw those preseason ADPs out along with any preconceived notion of how these players were going to perform - we've taken into account injuries, team context, Statcast metrics, and gameplay observations in order to provide you with the most current rankings possible. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the very latest rankings which are continually updated. Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 SP rest-of-season rankings for July.

Starting Pitcher Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (July)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

After pitching to an uncharacteristically high 4.12 ERA in the first month, Mad Max has been lights out ever since. We should be grateful that he's sitting out the All-Star game in order to stay fresh for the stretch run. He's locked in as the top fantasy SP for the rest of this year and that likely won't change.

Roller coaster enthusiasts, masochists, diehard Red Sox fans convinced the team is going to turn it around any day now and bring anotha' ring home. Those are the people enjoying their draft-day shares of Chris Sale at an average price tag of a first-round pick. His K-rate is still strong at 34.5% but his swing-and-miss rate has fluctuated wildly from month to month, as has his ERA.

After a horrible April, Sale posted a 2.82 ERA in May and 2.73 in June. Then he ruined it all by giving up five earned runs in each of his last two starts before the break. If you own Sale or bought low on him after the panic started, hold tight and enjoy the strikeouts, if nothing else.

Tier Two

Bauer isn't pitching to last year's level but I'm not discounting improvement in the second half. His 38.2% hard-hit rate has jumped back to 2017 levels, nine points higher than last year. That has led to an ERA that's a run and a half higher than last year too. I wouldn't be surprised if the recent trade rumors spark a resurgence, whether they come to fruition or not. A move to a contender would obviously help his win potential and could push him back into the elite once more.

My personal ranking for Zack Greinke and Blake Snell are about 20-30 spots lower than my compadres. This has nothing to do with those particular players. In fact, it's the start of a trend where I seem to have several starters in the top 25 lower than the consensus.

Tier Three

A 3.74 ERA and 1.30 WHIP aren't what we expected out of Aaron Nola. At least he's stayed healthy so far! Nola's hard-hit rate is in the 26th percentile and he's already allowed 15 HR in 19 starts after allowing just 17 all last year over 33 starts (cue Justin Verlander quote). So Nola may be a victim of the juiced ball to some extent but in a season where an ERA of 3.00 puts you on the top-10 leaderboard, we can't complain too much in this case. His strikeout rate is comparable to last year and he has a chance to match last year's 17-win total if the Phillies play up to their potential.

Patrick Corbin was thought to be a Cy Young dark horse coming into the season after his move to Washington. Last year's breakout was no fluke, as he's matched nearly every metric from 2018 and, aside from a few more longballs allowed, looks to be a strong SP2 in fantasy rotations. If the Nats keep pushing for a playoff spot, he will be a key factor. I see no reason to expect decline, unlike pitchers like Hyun Jin Ryu and Luis Castillo who have yet to hit a rough patch but could do so based on their history.

Speaking of the Cy Young award, maybe Noah Syndergaard won't ever win one after all. Early on, we blamed the ball and his lack of grip. Then it was injury. Now, we don't know what to make of the once-mighty Thor. Our own Scott Engel wrote a detailed profile on him early in the season and followed up with another Insider Report indicating he could still be a buy-low candidate based on several factors. It's hard to keep the faith at this point with a 4.68 ERA weighing him down. What's worse is that his K% has been dropping for three straight years. New rumors suggest he could be on the trade block but it's not certain whether the Mets would trade him. Either way, buying low has just become too risky at this point.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

Let's talk Cleveland. Shane Bieber was absolutely dominant in his one inning of labor at the All-Star Game, striking out the side. Sure, Aroldis Chapman did the same thing and earned the save but did he pitch the all-important fifth inning? I think not. Hometown conspiracy aside, Bieber has been one of the better pitching surprises of the season. He's walking just over five percent of batters faced and his ratios are inflated by a couple of disastrous starts earlier in the year. That said, it should be noted that his 45.6% hard-hit percentage is in the bottom 5% of the league. As a rookie, he may be prone to more disastrous starts in the future too, so be cautious.

Mike Clevinger gets a pass because he's been dealing with strains and sprains all year. His last outing of the first half was promising though, as he tossed six scoreless innings on July 3. There could be a buy-low window still.

If anyone should be highest on Lucas Giolito, it should be me. I mean, I wrote the book (article) on his breakout 2019 season. But I understand his inconsistency and control issues could continue to creep back. His latest outing, where he surrendered five walks and six earned runs, can be dismissed. The fact that he hasn't finished six innings in any of his last four starts is hard to ignore though. The Cubs seem to be his biggest problem lately but if he is tiring out or losing his command for whatever reason, it may be time to bail. Let's see if the break does him some good before pushing the panic button.

Tier Five

Upon reviewing these rankings, I've noticed I'm far higher on Jack Flaherty and lower on Mike Soroka than either Nick or Bill. I feel good about Flaherty showing improvement, especially because the K-rate is still strong and the Cardinals offense just has to get better, which will improve that 4-6 record. I feel pretty good about Soroka too so it must be natural fear of regression that drove me to rank him lower. Expected stats say that he is performing as he should but the fact he's striking out barely 20% of batters and has had some nice luck in the win column makes me leery.

I named Chris Paddack as the top sell-high SP about a month ago and am holding true to that. He's already been sent down temporarily once and will probably see more time off in the near future. He's got the stuff, even if his pitch mix is limited, but this isn't the year to trust him down the stretch of a fantasy playoff race.

Zach Wheeler has also been linked to trade talks and could wind up in San Diego or Milwaukee before the year is up. This would be a boon to his value, although that would involve trusting him. He's looked bad at times but all his xStats are above average, with a fastball velocity that ranks in the 95th percentile. That will play anywhere.

Time to represent my Marlins! Caleb Smith was one of the best pitchers in the majors before he hit the injured list and should rightfully have been nominated as the team's All-Star representative. Now that he's back, people seem have forgotten about his elite strikeout numbers and 1.01 WHIP. The wins are even more promising now that the Marlins are playing .500 ball since May. The fact he's even available in more than a third of fantasy leagues disturbs me.

Tier Six

I'm done with Yu Darvish. Done. I mean, I still own him in about six leagues so technically not completely done but you get the drift. He's been a hard pill to swallow even on a discounted draft price this year. Glimmers of hope, like his strong start against the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago, are immediately erased by four-run and five-run outings. He's only tossed four quality starts out of 18 this season. If you have aspirations of winning your league, move on from him now.

Is there still hope left for Nick Pivetta? He seemed to get it together for about a one-week span after being recalled from Triple-A and then continued to implode time after time. He is a lost cause at this point and doesn't belong in the top 200 overall.

Out of sight, out of mind? That seems to be the mentality of many fantasy owners. Young studs Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow are both similar to Caleb Smith in the sense that they were sensational to start the season and then hit the shelf with injuries and became devalued. I have personally been able to buy German and Smith at discounted rates over the past couple of weeks and may soon pull the trigger on Glasnow. His forearm strain isn't indicative of other major issues and he said he expects to pitch again this season. Reevaluate the situation in a week and see if he can help sooner than later.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

I know I'm still too high on Jon Gray and always will be. He is what he is at this point - a hard-thrower who isn't fazed by Coors but is also prone to getting hit hard at times. He is and will remain a low-end rotation arm in fantasy.

On the other end of the velocity spectrum, Miles Mikolas isn't worth your time outside of points leagues - I'll have to slide him way down my personal rankings.

Trevor Williams isn't going to blow anyone away but he has shown the ability to limit opposing offenses. That said, he's been outright terrible in three starts since coming off the IL. For that reason, he's been dumped in many leagues. Take a wait-and-see approach to determine whether he can get back on track after the break. He could be a worthy streamer if nothing else, at least for your ratios.

Tier Eight and lower

Many busts reside here, such as Mike Foltynewicz, Yusei Kikuchi, and Ross Stripling. Starters don't typically post dramatic turnarounds midseason so taking a chance on a young pitcher like Zac Gallen, Jesus Luzardo, or Zach Plesac might be a better strategy.

Buy-low candidates worth considering for those in the middle of the standings include: Luke Weaver, Sandy Alcantara, Eric Lauer.

Regardless of standing, I'm not holding my breath waiting on Corey Kluber or Luis Severino to return in an effective way. Chalk it up as a lost season and move on.

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