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Scott Engel goes in-depth to find out if New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard's struggles can be solved soon, making him a buy-low candidate in 2019 fantasy baseball leagues.
On Saturday night at Citi Field, Noah Syndergaard was not ready for the bright spotlight. It was Game of Thrones Syndergaard Bobblehead Night, and Met fans lined up deep outside the ballpark for their unique souvenir of the hard-throwing fifth-year starter. But as has been the custom so far this year. Syndergaard disappointed. He allowed five runs in five innings as the Mets lost to the Brewers, 8-6.
Everyone seemingly wants Syndergaard to succeed. He is not arrogant and often comes across as humble. But he is also playful and entertaining on social media. Mets fans have taken to him as a promising young strikeout artist who offers hope as part of the latest potentially exciting pitching staff the franchise has assembled. The best Mets teams were often propelled higher by stellar pitching. Fantasy players view Syndergaard as a high upside strikeout producer.
But after five starts to the season, no one is getting what they want from Syndergaard, as he is off to the worst start of his career at 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed four earned runs in four of five starts, including a career-high four outings in a row. Fantasy players want to know now, can Syndergaard turn this around? Others want to know if they should buy low on him. So to answer those questions, I gathered viewpoints from various sources at Citi Field this past weekend. Here are the theories as to why Syndergaard has struggled so mightily early this season, and if he can right himself soon.
Theory One: Bad Luck
Mets manager Mickey Callaway pointed to Syndergaard being unfortunate before last Saturday’s start. Noting Syndergaard’s strand rate (56.8 percent) and BABIP (.376), he had valid statistical points. The strand rate was actually at 50 percent before Saturday night’s game. His XFIP is 3.59.
Mets beat reporter Mike Puma of the New York Post agreed with this line of thinking. “Part of it has been bad luck. I know the ERA is high but it seems like an inordinate number of balls just fall in on him. He hasn’t lost anything as far as his stuff. He’s still throwing the fastball 98 to 99,” Puma said. But as Syndergaard himself pointed out, his problems stem from more than just being unlucky.
Theory Two: Can’t Get a Grip
After the Milwaukee loss, Syndergaard lamented how he just does not have a good feel for his slider and curve, and how he simply cannot get good grip on his pitches. He does not trust the slider and curve at all right now. “Every time I get a new baseball out there, it feels like I am holding an ice cube,” he said. “Every baseball I get feels as slick as can be.” This has been a widespread complaint throughout MLB, although the league denies any changes in the supplied baseballs.
Against the Brewers, he did not throw a single curve the second time through the lineup. He has also been talking about troubles with the slider since the beginning of the season.
“I just feel I’m throwing it with my fingertips,” Syndergaard said. ”Normally I would grip it just how you should throw a slider, throw it like a fastball, and I would get results. Now every time it seems when I try to grip and throw it like a fastball it’s going to spin out of my hands because I have zero grip on the ball.”
Overall, Syndergaard is throwing his fastball 60.4 percent of the time, which is considerably higher than the 53.6 mark of last season. His slider usage is down from 20.9 to 17.5 percent and his curve has been deployed a career-low 6.6 percent, down from his career mark of 12.5. Which leads us to the next theory.
Theory Three: Predictability
As I always say, baseball is a constant game of adjustments, and Syndergaard admitted the league has likely adjusted to him. According to Yahoo Sports’ Wallace Matthews, who covers the team for the Flushing Meadows Baseball Club site, the fireballer has become predictable:
“I don’t think there’s anything physically wrong with him, he’s just learning how to pitch,” Matthews said. “He’s got a lot of talent, he can throw very hard, but he really hasn’t made the adjustment yet from thrower to pitcher. I think we see that constantly with him. He’s had control problems, he’s been hittable when he’s in the strike zone and I think it’s because he’s gotten predictable. He’s coming hard at you all the time. I think the difference between thrower and pitcher is a big one, and he hasn’t achieved it yet.”
Puma echoed the sentiments of Matthews. “Maybe he’s got to mix in more, not be as predictable. Maybe he is going too hard at times, maybe take a little off his slider and his changeup to give the different look so everything is not as hard,” Puma said.
Callaway simply wants Syndergaard to be more economical with the strikeout as less of a pure end goal.
“It’s not about striking a guy out, it’s about getting a guy out in three pitches or less,” the manager said.
But are we examining all of this just a bit too closely?
Theory Four: It’s Early
We hear this one all the time in Fantasy Baseball and baseball itself. Be patient. Buy low. It’s all going to turn around soon. Reporters and players agree.
“I’d be stunned if this keeps up much longer. Syndergaard is just too good of a pitcher,” Puma said.
Mets outfielder Michael Conforto said the whole staff has endured troubles so far (The 5.37 team ERA is 27th in the league), but will rebound, as Steven Matz and Zach Wheeler have already bounced back from shaky outings. Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom will follow suit soon, he said.
“I think as a whole, not just Noah, there’s been some tough starts for some of our starters and we know that’s not them. I think that’s something that’s going to work itself out. Those guys are just going to go out and have dominant performances, it’s just who they are. So we’re not worried about Noah or Jake. Our pitching staff’s going to be fine.”
Former teammate Travis d’Arnaud saw it similarly. “I think his stuff has been there, I think he’s going to turn it around, he’s only pitched a (few) games. He’ll keep doing what he has been doing his whole career.”
Syndergaard feels like he is close to a breakthrough, despite all his struggles so far.
“I’m not pressing the panic button quite just yet. I still have every bit of confidence in my abilities. I’m not getting the results I want, something’s not clicking. But I’m just one split second away from turning this all around.”
But are we keeping raised expectations that shouldn’t have been there to begin with?
Theory Five: We Rated Him Too Highly
Fantasy players drafted Syndergaard as a high-end SP2 this year. Some analysts, like myself, thought he could make the step forward to being a No. 1 Fantasy starter. But Matthews said he is just not ready yet to be a premier starting pitcher.
“I think people expected him to be 1A to deGrom’s 1 this year and it just hasn’t worked out that way yet,” Matthews said. “I think the difference between thrower and pitcher is a big one, and he hasn’t achieved it yet.”
So how will he figure it out? How will he “execute” as Callaway put it, to the point where he can be successful again? The staff has given him much input, and Syndergaard has continued to prep heavily for every turn. But what exactly needs to “click” for Syndergaard to regain his better form?
A coach can’t identify that,” Callaway said. “That’s what the player needs to figure out.”
Syndergaard feels like it’s just not going his way, in a big way. But rather than focus on one item, he thinks it is a mix of issues that have caused his early season downfall.
“It’s kind of a combination of everything. When it rains it pours,” he said.
The Outlook
While the myriad theories exist, there seems to be widespread confidence that Syndergaard has the considerable talent and high-end arsenal to turn things around soon. Matthews’ view that he has to make the transformation from thrower to pitcher, though, should make you view him as less of a Fantasy superstar type when he does regain his better form. It’s certainly recommended to buy low on Syndergaard, as long as you know you will get a SP2 at best in return. That ain’t too shabby, though.
Thor def didn't defend the iron throne tonight.
Still a dope bobblehead @Noahsyndergaard @Mets #forthethrone #MILvsNYM pic.twitter.com/jf8XmgZFYw
— Felix Puno III (@felixrunsnyc) April 28, 2019
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