RADIO
The 2024 NFL season is still several months away. However, the game of fantasy football is a year-round event. It’s never too early to prepare for the upcoming fantasy season.
Last year, there were many surprising performances at the quarterback position. C.J. Stroud was a superstar as a rookie. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes had his worst fantasy season since becoming the starting quarterback.
Let’s dive into some potential ADP values, busts, and sleeper candidates at the quarterback position for the 2024 season. The ADP for the article is courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.
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Quarterback Values
Kyler Murray (ARI): ADP 86.6 | QB10
Murray has always been one of the more underrated fantasy football quarterbacks. He averaged 21.5 or more fantasy points in back-to-back seasons following his rookie year. The veteran averaged 20 fantasy points per game in 2022 before suffering a season-ending torn ACL early in the Week 14 matchup. More importantly, Murray was the QB9 on a points-per-game basis (18.3) among quarterbacks with at least eight games last season. Yet, he never had a completely healthy receiving core and limited rushing ability because of the injury.
Thankfully, Murray will be over a year removed from the torn ACL in 2024 and will head into his second year under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system. While the Cardinals lost Marquise Brown in free agency, many expect the team to select Marvin Harrison Jr. during the 2024 NFL Draft. The former Ohio State star will be an excellent fit with Murray. More importantly, the star quarterback’s rushing ability gives him a safe fantasy floor, averaging 6.2 fantasy points per game for his career on the ground.
Marvin Harrison Jr. with Kyler Murray 🔥 pic.twitter.com/6YjFwd0V4p
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) March 22, 2024
Kirk Cousins (ATL): ADP 123.6 | QB17
Despite coming off a torn Achilles injury at his age, the Falcons signed Cousins to a massive four-year deal, solving their quarterback problem. The addition of the veteran quarterback is excellent news for the fantasy of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and the entire Atlanta offense. However, it’s also an appealing landing spot for Cousins’ fantasy value. The veteran quarterback has never been an elite option for fantasy players. Yet, he has consistently finished the year as a low-end QB1 since becoming a full-time starter in 2015.
Last year, Cousins was QB7 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 18.7 fantasy points per contest last season, a higher average than C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy. Despite missing Justin Jefferson for nearly half of the games, the veteran scored 19.9 or more fantasy points in 62.5% of the contests, including the last two without the superstar. More importantly, he expects to be ready for the start of training camp. Cousins’ ADP won’t crack the top 12, but he should end the 2024 season as a QB1.
Quarterback Busts
Justin Herbert (LAC): ADP 105.9 | QB12
Sometimes, fantasy football and reality don’t match up. Herbert is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, totaling 69 passing touchdowns over his first two seasons in the NFL. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting the superstar quarterback in 2024. Herbert has struggled to stay healthy the past two years but only missed four games because of injuries. Yet, he finished the 2023 season as the QB5 on a points-per-game basis among quarterbacks with at least nine contests, averaging 19.8 fantasy points per matchup before the season-ending injury.
Unfortunately, the Chargers have done everything possible to hurt Herbert’s fantasy value for next year. Los Angeles traded away Keenan Allen for a fourth-round pick, released Mike Williams, and allowed Austin Ekeler to walk in free agency. The team replaced them with Gus Edwards and a pair of blocking tight ends. Today, Herbert’s top receiving threats are Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. If the Chargers don’t spend their first-round pick in the NFL Draft on a wide receiver, the superstar quarterback might have to throw to himself next season.
Justin Herbert next season pic.twitter.com/P7owzoKJRF
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) March 15, 2024
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): ADP 109.6 | QB13
Tagovailoa had a solid 2023 season, ending the year as the QB11, averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game. However, he was only the QB21 on a points-per-game basis, averaging fewer fantasy points per contest than Jake Browning. The former Alabama star started the season on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff in the second half of last year. Tagovailoa averaged only 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests.
The veteran quarterback scored 15.5 or fewer fantasy points in seven of the final nine regular season games, including five consecutive contests. According to PFF, Miami had the 16th rank pass blocking offensive line in 2023. However, the Dolphins lost two starters on the offensive line in free agency, including their second-best lineman – Robert Hunt (74.4 PFF pass-blocking grade). With Tyreek Hill on the wrong side of 30 and Jaylen Waddle coming off the worst year of his career, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-drat list for 2024.
Quarterback Sleepers
Jayden Daniels (LSU): ADP 129.7 | QB18
While the fantasy football community doesn’t know where Daniels will land during the 2024 NFL Draft, many believe the Heisman Trophy winner will get selected second overall by the Washington Commanders. Even if he lands with the New England Patriots, fantasy players should want the rookie quarterback on their team. The dynamic quarterback had a breakout year in his final college season, totaling 3,811 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. Daniels also had an 8.4% big-time throw rate per PFF, one of the highest averages among qualifying quarterbacks.
More importantly, the former LSU quarterback can become a fantasy superstar as a rookie because of his legs. Last year, the fantasy football community loved Anthony Richardson because of his rushing abilities. Richardson had 654 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in his final college season. By comparison, Daniels had 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. Richardson averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game with his legs as a rookie. Daniels could replicate that rushing success while being more productive in the passing game.
51 yards for the TOUCHDOWN @JayD__5 is unreal
📺 SEC Network pic.twitter.com/QqrFz7Ps61
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 12, 2023
Will Levis (TEN): ADP 171.9 | QB25
After starting his rookie season as Ryan Tannehill’s backup, Levis was outstanding in his first career start. The former Kentucky star completed 65.5% of his pass attempts for 238 yards, four touchdowns, and 26.6 fantasy points in his NFL debut against the Atlanta Falcons. Unfortunately, the rookie had only four passing touchdowns over the other eight games in 2023, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per contest. More importantly, the former Kentucky star ranked first in “Hero Throw” percentage (9%) among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts (per Fantasy Points Data).
Levis flashed star potential as a rookie despite playing on arguably the worst offense in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkins was the only Titan with over 530 receiving yards last year. Furthermore, the veteran accounted for half of the team’s receiving touchdowns despite catching 42.9% of his seven scores in Levis’ career debut. Thankfully, Tennessee has significantly upgraded the quarterback’s supporting cast in free agency, adding Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency. Levis will be one of my highest-rostered quarterbacks in superflex leagues.
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