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Welcome back RotoBallers!
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the U.S. Open. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the championship Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
U.S. Open
The hardest tournament of the year heads to Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, NY for the United States Open. This is a true U.S. Open course. The winning score should be near even-par. That's how difficult it will be. This is not a PGA Tour event, rather a USGA one and they want the players to struggle with the course.
The par-70 course plays to around 7,500 yards. It has four par-3's, 12 par-4's, and two par-5's.
These stats are from the last U.S. Open held at Shinnecock in 2004:
| Stat | Shinnecock | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | --- | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 51% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 50% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 45% | 58% |
| Three Putt Percentage | 79% | 56% |
Just 43 rounds out of a possible 442 (10.27% were in the 60's.) The winning score was 4-under (Retief Goosen) followed by Phil Mickelson at 2-under and those were the only under par scores. And that's before 660 yards were added to the course. Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw redesigned the course in 2012. They're also the ones who built Trinity Forest home to the AT&T Byron Nelson. That course was an American links style. The Poa Annua greens are slightly below average in size.
Here's how Phil Mickelson described the course,
"Shinnecock, when I was there last week, I think it’s the greatest setup I’ve seen in a U.S. Open. I think that the fairways are a very fair width, the rough is brutal, it will be as penalizing as a hazard, trying to just get it back to the fairway. But the fairways are so wide that a well-struck shot ends up in the fairway."
Tiger Woods called this a ball strikers course and said, " Wind blows there, and the winning score’s over par."
Making par is a good hole at the U.S. Open. Make par and move on. That's how hard U.S. Open's are.
Past winners are Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy, and Graeme McDowell to round out the decade. Interesting to note Koepka, Johnson, Rose, and McIlroy are bombers.
Koepka has the most strokes gained at this event over the past five years with 49. Johnson is next with 43, followed by Day at 41. Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar round out the top five.
In Vegas, as of Tuesday on sportsbook.ag Johnson is the favorite at 7-1. Then comes McIlroy at 12-1 followed by Rose, Thomas, and Woods at 14-1.
Stats I'm looking at
I didn't include driving distance. I will look at that separately.
With the results, I keyed on the following.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler.
Johnson ($11,700) is not only the co-favorite, highest-priced player, number one in the world but also number one in my rankings. He had a string of three consecutive top-5's between 2014-16. He's trending in the right direction with a top-20 in his last six tournaments including a win this past week "but no player has ever won the U.S. Open the week after winning on tour." He can overpower any golf course. The usual knack on his game was poor chipping and putting, but he's tops in these categories. However, to justify his price he'll have to finish in the top-5,
McIlroy ($11,500) has had an interesting season up to this point. He won the Arnold Palmer Inv., then was in the final pairing at The Masters before an awful final round. Since that point he finished T-16 at the Wells Fargo, cut at The Players and T-8 at the Memorial. He's been cut at his past two U.S. Open's. He's a pass for me. Too erratic.
Thomas ($11,000) is a big ball striker who can pound the ball. He has not finished outside the top-22 in 2018. His strokes gained stats in driving are tops, but over his last 36 rounds, he's 83rd in 3-putt avoidance. You need to make your putts at Shinnecock or you're in serious trouble.
Spieth ($10,800) is another player who's struggled with his putting this year. He's 93rd in 3-putt avoidance over his last 36 rounds, and his putting numbers across all distances are bad. His best rank is 40th in 25-feet plus. Besides for winning the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in 2015, he hasn't finished higher than a T-17 and that was in 2014.
Day ($10,500) has been having a great bounce back year after last year's rough one. He's already won twice at major-type courses, Pebble Beach and Wells Fargo. He finished T-5 at The Players and T-20 at The Masters. He's been terrific on the greens this year as well as off-the-tee (22nd in last 36 rounds). He's fourth in my custom rankings so this course should suit him nicely. He'll have no problem with the added length being he's 12th in driving distance on the year. Despite being cut at last year's U.S. Open, he made the top-10 four consecutive years with one runner-up. He also was runner-up in 2011. Day has the best scoring average (71.19) over the last two decades of this event. He's a big-time threat to win his second major this week.
Fowler ($10,200) has the unfortunate title of being the best player to not win a major. But that can all change this weekend at a place he's accustomed to. According to Geoff Shackelford on his podcast after the Masters, Fowler is familiar with Shinnecock. He loves playing the course and is excited to. Last year at the U.S. Open should have been Fowler's first major win at, but he couldn't capitalize on Sunday. He has yet to win on tour this season, but was a close runner-up at Augusta. He's been great at driving the ball, but his putting has been iffy. Months ago I picked him to win, even at 12-1 in Vegas, so I will stick by him as my pick to win. He should be fine putting knowing this course. Fowler also had a great tune-up at the Memorial two weeks ago.
If there were a way to bet Fowler and Day as the final group pairing on Sunday I would. One of them is winning their first U.S. Open this week.
Middle-Priced Players
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900) - He will not be a popular pick this week. He hasn't won the big one yet and seems to fold under the pressure in the final round. He's made consecutive top-20's (Memorial and Byron Nelson). Matsuyama was also runner-up last year at Erin Hills. The time may be right for him to push for his first major.
Henrik Stenson ($8,800) - The Swede drives the ball so straight. In his last 24 rounds, he's number one in fairways gained and good drives gained on courses where it's difficult hitting the fairway. Despite making two top-10's in 11 career U.S. Open's, this could be a nice weekend for Stenson. He's third in 3-putt avoidance on these green conditions. Combine that with how straight he hits the ball and he'll be consistent enough to compete.
Phil Mickelson ($8,600) - I originally picked him, then decided against him, and now am going back to him. As everyone knows, this is the major that's eluded Lefty his entire career. He had this championship won in 2004 at Shinnecock, but decided to hit driver on 18 instead of going 3-wood (the safer club). He choked it away. I'll take him based on the fact he has one of the best short-games in golf. He's also trending in the right direction with back-to-back top-15's at the Memorial and St. Jude Classic. If he could keep it straight, he'll be a solid play.
Paul Casey ($8000) - The 40-year-old Englishman is still trying to win his first major. He's made one top-10 in 14 U.S. Open's and was cut in 2004. But he's an older and wiser player now. Take a flier.
Alen Noren ($7,900) - He had such a hot start to his debut season on the PGA Tour, but then tailed off a bit. He last played in the U.S. at The Players finishing T-17. He then went to Europe finishing T-3 at the BMW PGA Championship, and T-23 at the Italian Open. He'll make his first career U.S. Open cut this week after missing his first three.
Matt Kuchar ($7,600) - Another older player who hasn't won a major. His numbers are solid throughout. He'll have the New York crowd behind him. Kuchar has made eight consecutive cuts at this championship and he'll make it nine and finish in the top-20.
Xander Schauffele ($7,500) - Now to a young gun who's made his mark already at the age of 24. Despite being cut at the Memorial and Fort Worth Inv., he plays his best at the biggest events. He was a complete unknown last year heading into the U.S. Open and finished T-5. He backed that up at the Open Championship with a T-20, then this year, was runner-up at The Players. His putting numbers are good. He'll just have to keep it straight.
Low-Priced Players
Brandt Snedeker ($7,300) - Speaking of good putting, Sneds is one of the best. Under these conditions, he's second in 3-putt avoidance, sixth in strokes gained putting and first in around the green. His driving scares me, but you can't get everything at this price. His last five U.S. Open's: T-17, T-9, eighth, cut, and T-9 last year. As for his recent play, he just finished T-6 last week.
Charley Hoffman ($7,200) - He's got very surprising stats at this price, in a good way. He's had an up-and-down year, but has made five of six U.S. Open cuts including an eighth-place finish last year.
Chez Reavie ($6,900) - After back-to-back runner-ups in February, he tailed off a bit, but may be back after a T-6 last week. He's played this championship sporadically through the years, 2003-04, '11-'12, and last year where he finished T-16. I love that he's second in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds. He's also 10th in strokes gained putting under these conditions. The key to winning is hitting it straight and avoiding 3-putts.
Best of luck RotoBallers and be sure to look out for another article coming next week for the Travelers Championship!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
It says DJ is number 2, there's a glitch in the system and he should really be number one.
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
