RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Jason Day (-12) captured his second tournament of 2018 with a two-stroke victory at the Wells Fargo Championship. After a rough season last year, Day has seemingly picked up where he left off two years ago. I wrote last week, he struggled with his approach shot but his putting was strong. That didn't stop me from putting him in my lineup, but he continued to struggle in approach shots rankings 71st for the week. However, he was second in strokes-gained putting and fourth around the green.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the The Players Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Players Championship
The PGA Tour heads down the coast to TPC Sawgrass for the fifth major in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. It's the most lucrative event, a major reason why all 50 of the world's top-50 will be competing.
The par-72 course is not as long as last week, but still on the long end playing to nearly 7,200 yards. It has four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. Players drive the ball an average of 278 yards, four yards less than tour average. Players split the fairway on this course 62% of the time, tour average is 60%. From the fairways to the greens, players get the green 63%, a slightly lower percentage that tour average 65%. The scrambling percentage is, 53%, tour average is 57%. The greens are Bermuda with very fast speeds. Players three putt 60% of the time, tour average is 55%. It's important to note this course is a Pete Dye one. Keep reading to find out the best performers on Dye courses.
This course is famous for the par-3 17th hole, also known as the island green. Tournaments are won and lost on this hole.
From 2012-16, the cut line was +0.6, but after the major renovation prior to last year's tournament, the cut line was 3-0ver.
Past winners have been Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar, K.J. Choi, and Tim Clark.
Rory McIlroy has the most total strokes gained at this event over the past five years, 38.40, followed by Sergio Garcia, 36.39, Adam Scott, 31.37, Francesco Molinari 29.37, Hideki Matsuyama, 27.94.
As for the best scorers the past five years,
This is such a hard tournament to handicap. Even Vegas is struggling with the betting favorites, Spieth and Thomas, at 14-1. There's nothing to telling in the stats from past years. Strokes gained approach is an important one. This isn't really a driver-course, so off-the-tee will be an important one to look at, as well as iron players
I used a new tool on the Fantasy National called the mixed condition model this week. It'll focus on SG:TOT of the last 24 rounds at Pete Dye courses, SG:T2G last 36 rounds in 2018, SG:P for the last 24 rounds on fast/lightning green speeds, SG:Off-the-tee and SG:App for the last 24 rounds.
With the results, I keyed on the following.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Rory McIlroy ($11,600), Jason Day ($11,400), Jordan Spieth ($11,100), Justin Thomas ($10,800) and Dustin Johnson ($10,300).
McIlroy is yet again the highest-priced player this week. He had a disappointing tournament last week only finishing T-16. His second round 5-over pretty much ended his chances. He had top-10's from 2013-15, a T-12 in '16 and, T-35 last year. His price is way too high this week and even Vegas pegs him as the sixth betting choice, 16-1. He's a long-ball hitter who may struggle with his irons.
Day won last week, partly thanks to great work around the greens and on the putting surface. He won this event two years ago, but I think he'll be too highly-owned to justify his pricing.
Spieth is my play this week despite three consecutive missed cuts here. He did record a T-4 in his debut in 2015. He hasn't played since his remarkable charge in the final round at Augusta a month ago. I think he's really flying under the radar, and the fact that he's second in strokes gained total on Pete Dye courses since 2014.
Thomas is having a very consistent season with no finish this year outside the top-20. He had a T-3 here two years ago and made the cut the other two times. He'll be a solid cash game play who won't disappoint.
Johnson is finally not one of the three highest-priced players and for good reason this week. This is not a driver course, which hurts him because he's one of the longest hitters on tours. Last year he recorded a T-12, his best finish in at least the past five years. I will be avoiding him in all lineups.
Middle-Priced Players
Henrik Stenson ($8,800) - The Swede is at 22-1. He's a terrific iron player which bodes very well for this course. He's projected to be one of the most-owned players. Stenson has not played since a T-5 at the Masters and has made four of the past five cuts at Sawgrass. He won the 2009 championship here and is third on the all-time earners list.
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300) - This will be the 24-year-olds first time competing at Sawgrass. He's finished in the top-5 in three of the past four tournaments including a solo fourth last week. In the past four tournaments, he's been in the green in the SG:App, T2G, and OTT.
Francesco Molinari ($8,100) - Another highly-projected popular play this week. He has terrific numbers, besides for putting, but putting isn't worth a whole lot this week considering Si Woo Kim won this last year. Molinari's made five consecutive cuts, and three straight top-10's here. He gained nearly 12 strokes in T2G last week, yet only finished T-16. He's also number one in SG:App through the last 24 rounds.
Alex Noren ($7,900) - After a torrid start in his debut season on the PGA Tour, he fell back to Earth after missed cuts at the Masters and Wells Fargo last week. He finished 10th here last year so I'm hoping he returns to his form pre-Augusta form in a week he's projected to be less than 10% owned.
Patrick Cantlay ($7,500) - Solid numbers all around, but not the greatest putter. He recently recorded a T-7 at the RBC Heritage, a Pete Dye course. He's got a beautiful swing and is an above average off-the-tee and T2G player. In his debut last year, he was T-22.
Emilliano Grillo ($7,500) - He has not missed a cut since August of last year. He's off three straight top-20's. His numbers are solid all and is 10th on Pete Dye courses over the last 24 rounds. This will be third time competing here; he missed a cut in his debut in 2016 and was 11th last year.
Adam Scott ($7,400) - I promise this is the last week I'm going with him. His numbers are really solid throughout, but yet he hasn't register a top-10 in exactly a year. That's right. His last top-10 was at The Players last year. He's made the cut six consecutive years. If he is not in the top-20 at the end of this event, I am officially done with him.
Luke List ($7,400) - The number one T2G player over his last 36 rounds. He rebounded very strongly last week finishing ninth after missing the cut at the Texas Open. He was cut in his debut last year, but his stats indicate a big performance this week, especially after a T-3 at the RBC Heritage a month ago, a Pete Dye course.
Low-Priced Players
Chez Reavie ($6,800) - A popular favorite in the golf community who's second in SG:App over the last 24 rounds. He has not played since the Masters where he finished 53rd and has not a good tournament since back-to-back runner-ups at the Phoenix Open and AT&T Pro-Am. He was cut in 2016, and got a T-56 last year.
J.J. Spaun ($6,600) - This will be his debut at Sawgrass. He is a complete hit-or-miss player. I'll take a chance on him because his numbers are solid throughout.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Be sure to look out for another article coming next week for the Byron Nelson!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
