RADIO
Welcome back RotoBaller! Aaron Wise captured the Byron Nelson (-23) by three strokes over Marc Leishman. It was the rookie's first win on tour.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Fort Worth Invitational. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Fort Worth Invitational
The PGA Tour stays in Texas and heads 30 miles west to Fort Worth for the tournament previously known as the DEAN and DELUCA Invitational. The tourney will still be played at Colonial Country Club.
The par-70 course plays to around 7,200 yards. That's average. It has four par-3's, 12 par-4's, and only two par-5's.
Players drive the ball an average of 275 yards, seven yards less than tour average. Players split the fairway 56% of the time. Tour average is 61%. Competitors reach the dance floor in regulation 64%, tour average is 65%. The scrambling percentage is 58%, one point high than tour average average. The Bentgrass greens are tiny and fast. Players three putt 47% of the time, tour average is 56%.
The cut line the past five years has been an average of +2.5,
Past winners are Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott, Boo Weekly, Zach Johnson, David Tims, and Johnson again. All but one of the winning score, Scott, was in the double-digits.
Jordan Spieth has the most strokes gained at this event with 55. That's nearly double the next best, Kevin Kisner, with 28. Then comes Matt Kuchar, Danny Lee, and Webb Simpson.
I will be using a new tool on the Fantasy National called the mixed condition model. It'll focus on the last 24 rounds and 36 rounds in 2018 for the following stats: SG:Par 4 (30%) because of the added two par-4's, fairways gained (20%), approach shot 150-175, (20%) it's the most common distance approaching the green, ball striking (20%), and SG: putting on fast Bent(10%).
With the results, I keyed on the following.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Jordan Spieth ($11,700), Jon Rahm ($11,000), Justin Rose ($10,600), Rickie Fowler ($10,400), and Webb Simpson ($10,200).
Spieth underperformed mightily last week. But returns to a course he's played so well at; T-7 in 2013, T-14, T-2, winner, and T-2 last year. As mentioned above, he has the most strokes gained at this tournament. This will also be played in Texas, where he is from. This is the week to take him, not last week.
Rahm finished runner-up last year in his Colonial debut. He's had a solid season with good all-around numbers. Not sure about this price though.
Fowler finally had a bad outing after being cut at The Players two weeks ago. He's second in my L36 (last 36) round rankings and first in SG:Par 4 during that time span. He has not competed here since 2014 where he was cut. He placed T-54 in 2013. Of course he wants to win, but I believe he has eyes focused on the U.S. Open in three weeks. I'll pass.
Simpson is a surprise to be at this price. He did have a dominant win at The Players so this price-jump is all based on that win. He played here the last two years finishing T-3 and fifth last year. He's pretty low in both my rankings.
Middle-Priced Players
Adam Scott ($9,100) - He's back. Two strong performances in a row with six of eight rounds in the 60's. He registered a T-11 at The Players and T-9 last week. He won this tournament tin 2014 and made the cut the two years after. His L24 numbers are strong including proximity from 150-175 out.
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,800) - I've been on him pretty much all season. He finished a disappointed T-27 at The Players, but despite that, has finished top-5 in three of the the past five tournaments. On the season, he's top-5 in DraftKings points, SG:TOT, SG:T2G, SG:BS, SG:OTT, and SG:APP. Predictably, he's top-5 in both my L24 and L36 rankings. It must be noted he missed the cut here the past two years, which is odd considering this event is in Fort Worth and he went to college at SMU, located in Dallas.
Emilliano Grillo ($8,600) - He's number one in both my pair of rankings. He's made both cuts here finishing the past two years, T-55 and T-24. He has not missed a cut since last August. He finished T-3 earlier this year at the Houston Open, which I like because it shows he can play well on Texas courses.
Zach Johnson ($8,500) - Johnson has had an up-and-down year, but recently finished fifth at the Texas Open. If he could play well off-the-tee and get on the greens putting for birdie, he will surprise. He is ranked first in SG:Putting on this type of greens in both L24 and L36 rankings.
Chez Reavie ($7,600) - After a strong start to 2018 with back-to-back runner-ups at the Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach, he completely plummeted. But things may be turning around after a T-30 at The Players two weeks ago. He's number one in splitting the fairway in both the last 24 and 36 rounds. So if he can put it close to the hole and putt well, things he's done fairly well the last 24 and 36 rounds, he can finish top-10. He did place T-11 in 2013.
Adam Hadwin ($7,600) - He's had a very steady season and hasn't missed a cut since last August. He has strong numbers throughout and made his last three cuts here including a T-5 in 2015.
Low-Priced Players
Shubhankar Sharma ($7,200) - He is such a streaky player. After winning the Maybank Championship on the European Tour in January, he went on to miss his next two cuts. Then had two top-10's at the WGC-Mexico and Indian Open. He followed that up with three consecutive cuts, and then last month, in his last outing, logged a T-14 at the China Open. He'll either miss the cut or finish top-20.
Ben Martin ($6,900) - He's made four consecutive cuts at this event. He has been cut at his last three events, but I'll take my chances.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Be sure to look out for another article coming next week for the Memorial Tournament!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Strokes-gained stats
Last 24 rounds, custom rankings
Last 36 rounds, custom rankings
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
