RADIO
Wai Sallas advises fantasy football owners to stop discounting Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones and give him credit for his elite performance heading into Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season.
Once again, the Atlanta Falcons have found its way near the top of 2018's best offenses. Much to the chagrin of fantasy football owners worldwide, Julio Jones seems to have an aversion to touchdowns. Stop the Slander! Julio Jones is one of the best receivers in the game and will finish as such.
After last years' offensive regression, Steve Sarkisian and company have seemed to find the sweet spot in the Falcons offense. Matt Ryan is the second-best quarterback in fantasy football after four weeks, and Atlanta is averaging in the top 10 in both points per game (29) and yards per game (410.8).
Despite the Falcons' productivity, you dare challenge the best player on the team. The straw in the Falcons' milkshake. The YO in offensive coordinator Sarkisian's desperate cries for YOLO!!
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A Man of Consistency
Before this season started, only Antonio Brown has had more receiving yards than Jones--by a wide margin. Brown's 6,349 yards and Jones' 6,317 yards are more than 1,300 yards than the next best receiver. That is insane. Through four games in 2018, Jones has surpassed Brown and sits atop the leaderboard. Again, by a large margin.
During that four year stretch, Jones has been targeted 643 times. Basically, Matt Ryan enters each season, each game and personally implants a homing beacon on Jones. That's the only way to describe one player seeing that many looks.
While other players like Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Thomas have earned a seat at the wide receiver dinner table, it is not a roundtable. Brown and Jones are the only receivers to consistently finish in the top seven the last four years.
About That Thing
We should probably address the big elephant in the room.
As good as Jones has been--and he's been historically good, there has been one little hitch in his giddy-up the last three years. After leading the league with 136 receptions, 1,871 yards and eight touchdowns in 2015, Jones has averaged 85.5 catches and 1,426.5 yards. While that number is still phenomenal (addressed above), what is distressing is he has scored just one more touchdown in his last 34 games compared to that 2015 season.
Someone should check Jones' blood and see if he has some sort of allergic reaction to the new Mercedes Benz stadium, because his numbers in the red zone have been awful. The last two seasons, including the playoffs, Ryan is 1-for-20 when targeting Jones in the endzone.
I am not a mathematician, but I am pretty sure we could get Julio Iglesias in the endzone and find a way to catch more than one ball in 20 attempts.
As a fantasy football player, this is destructive.
Despite having All-Pro numbers for four years straight, the touchdown totals were enough to drop Jones' ADP down to the second round. Even though Jones has accumulated over 1,400 yards the last four seasons, people see those touchdown numbers and immediately look elsewhere. Really?
New Heights Ahead
Once again, Jones is off to a slow start in the touchdown department. Slow is an understatement. Through four games--and 10 Ryan touchdowns--Jones has yet to show off his 2018 touchdown dance. Calvin Ridley has six scores, while Jones still waits. There have been 101 players who have caught touchdown passes in 2018, and none of them wear number 11 in Atlanta.
Having said that, Jones is still WR7 in PPR leagues. He has 42 receptions and 502 yards. He is on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards. That has never been done before. Not only that, no one has ever posted two seasons with over 1,800 receiving yards. If he continued playing at this caliber, he'd finish with 368 fantasy points. In both 2016 and 2017, that would have been the top fantasy player at wide receiver.
Sooner or later, defenses will have to make a choice; continue to blanket Jones in the end zone like a beautiful San Francisco day and let Calvin Ridley and company score at will, or play defense straight up, opening the door for Jones. Atlanta's offense is back. Defenses will be left with this dilemma, and with the Ridley's proclivity in the red zone and end zone, it's only a matter of time before Jones is set free.
Even if by some reason it doesn't happen. If defensive coordinators decide you're going to have to beat us with anyone besides Jones. Jones' 17.3 yards per reception would mark the third time he’s achieved at least that number. His average of 7.3 receptions per game would only be the third-highest of his career.
So you can keep looking at the touchdowns or start gazing at what really matters. Jones is giving you a ton of points, and if you'd rather get touchdowns, go get Tyler Lockett and Stop the Slander. Julio Jones is in line for a banner year and it's time to enjoy a possibly historic season.
