RADIO
Wai Sallas advises fantasy football owners to stop worrying about the New England Patriots and buy low on Pats players heading into Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season.
After another slow start in New England--specifically Tom Brady--people are saying the end is near. Stop The Slander! Buy up all the Patriots shares you can get, because the fantasy point train may be a bit delayed, but it is on its way.
How many years of consistent productivity do you need? What assurances do you need to prove New England's offense may be the best fantasy football team in the league? What has changed this year in the offense that thinks your doubts are warranted?
Please be smart and realize the core pieces in New England are still there and the impediments holding the Patriots back will soon be remedied.
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When Injuries Attack
A lot of New England's rocky start can be attributed to a rash of injuries limiting the Patriots dynamic playmaking ability. Before the team's first preseason game, second round draft pick Sony Michel was forced to sit while he nursed a knee injury. Projected goal line back Jeremy Hill tore his ACL in the first game of the season. To pour salt in the wound, as Michel returns, starting running back Rex Burkhead was placed on injured reserve.
On Sunday night against the Lions, only three wide receivers dressed. Those three combined for four catches for 43 yards. Rob Gronkowski was double-teamed like a gunner on the punt team. All in all, the New England offense looked lost, stagnant and completely inept.
That all should change very soon. Josh Gordon is destined to start playing very soon. While it is unclear what he will be able to contribute, the mere threat of him out there should free up the underneath crossing routes Brady and Josh McDaniels love. Julian Edelman returns after Week 4. it all adds to a full arsenal for Brady and the Patriots to regain the form that has made them an elite offensive unit for the last decade.
History Favors Patriots
image captured from ffstatistics.com
Since Brady's return from the ACL injury that sidelined his 2008 campaign, the Patriots offense has finished in the top 5 every season in points scored except for that first year in 2009. When you look from a fantasy football perspective, cancel out Gronkowski's dominance at tight end, and you still see some phenomenal numbers across the board.
A wide receiver has finished in the top 20 in eight out of nine years. A running back has finished in the top 20 in five of the last nine years. In seven out of nine years, at least three skilled players have finished in the top 20 in a single season.
While Gordon's production is unknown, we know what Chris Hogan and Edelman are capable of accomplishing. When Brady has his full compliment of wide receivers, will opposing defenses still be able to use two defenders to cover Gronkowski at the line? Or when the Patriots push the envelope with three receiver sets, Gronk either in the slot or at the line and Michel in the backfield, is that just too much firepower to cover consistently?
History shows that Brady has a penchant for spreading the ball around. Outside of Gronk, Wes Welker and LeGarrette Blount, no other Patriot has finished in the top 10 since 2011. That doesn't necessarily mean Patriot players will not have RB1/WR1 production, it merely means its only a matter of time before the Patriot machine gets rolling. Where points will fall from the sky like the rains down in Africa.
The Patriot Way
Through three weeks, Brady ranks 21st at quarterback. He ranks behind such luminaries as Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen and Dolphin quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Even with Brady's lack of surrounding help, he ranks 11th in touchdowns (six), while throwing the 12th-fewest passes.
Former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia seemed to find a way to finally stop Gronk. Will other teams be able to sustain that strategy, however, when players come back from injury, suspension or get acclimated to the playbook?
Probably not.
The Patriots offense is a juggernaut. It has been for too long to just fall off the map. Just as players that outperform their averages experience a negative regression, players like Brady and Gronkowsi will trend the opposite. Michel, without anyone besides third-down back James White to challenge for touches, should become an every-down back in a high-powered offense. Hogan, Edelman and Gordon will graze the landscape in an attacking offense that takes advantage of opportunities and mismatches.
So Stop The Slander. The Patriots run is not over. It's time to buy up as many shares of New England players and let nature take its course.
