Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): The Open Championship

Welcome back RotoBallers! Michael Kim (-27) destroyed the field winning by 11 strokes at the John Deere Classic to win his first tournament. That makes it four tournaments in a row on the PGA Tour where the winners have won by several strokes. The European Tour was a similar story where Brandon Stone (-20) won the Scottish Open by four strokes.

This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the The Open Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the championship Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.

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Also check out Joe Nicely's horse for the course column weekly.

The Open Championship

The oldest major of the year is upon us. The world will convene at Carnoustie Golf Links in Angus, Scotland for the Open Championship, or British open like us Americans like to call it.

The par-71 plays to around 7,402 yards. It has three par-3's, 13 par-4's, and two par-5's. The greens are bent grass. With a lack of rain in the UK recently, the course is going to be really firm and fast. Rain is not even expected this week. Players will not need to hit drivers here. This is a less-than-driver course.

The last time The Open was played at Carnoustie, here were the results:

Let's take a look at the stats from 2007.

Past winners are Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Darren Clarke, and Louis Oosthuizen.

Stenson has the most strokes gained at this event over the past four years with 54.63. Mickelson is next with 48.67, followed by Sergio Garcia, 46.63. Then comes Spieth and Adam Scott who have the exact same amount with 41.63.

In Vegas, as of Tuesday on sportsbook.ag, Dustin Johnson is the favorite at 11-1. Justin Rose and McIlroy are next at 14-1. Spieth and Rickie Fowler are 16-1.

Stats I'm looking at

With the results, I keyed on the following.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000: Johnson, McIlroy, Spieth, Rose, and Justin Thomas.

Johnson ($11,300) - The betting favorite has not played since his third-place finish at the U.S. Open last month. He tweeted out Monday saying, "Feeling good for this week and will be hitting driver quite a bit. Everything is dry and playing fast at @TheOpen." As mentioned above, this is a less-than-driver course. Players don't need to overpower this course, so his strategy is interesting. You'd think DJ relies on his driver heavily, but since 2014 in terms of strokes gained, he's the third best performer on less-than-driver courses. In that same time frame, he's fourth best on links-style courses and second in wind. However, over his last 50 rounds on firm and fast, he's 81st in strokes gained around the green, 30th in approach, and 48th in putting.

After missing his first cut at The Open in 2009, he's made eight in a row with three top-10's. I don't like his strategy though so I'm passing.

McIlroy ($11,000) - For a man from Northern Ireland, it's surprising he's not a fan of firm and fast golf. Despite that, he's made three straight top-5's at The Open since 2014. I can't get away from the fact he doesn't like these conditions. Golf is a mental game and if he's not all there, he's in trouble. At the Irish Open two weeks ago, he shot all four rounds in the 70's finishing T-28. I'm avoiding him in everything.

Spieth ($10,600) - The defending champ has not had a top-20 finish since his third-place at The Masters. He is really really struggling this year, especially around the greens. He can whip out his A-game any moment though. He's number one in my custom rankings, so I'll take a shot with him. But I'm a little nervous based off his recent form and this stat,

Roes ($10,200) - He's been having a great year. Four straight top-10's including a T-9 at the Scottish Open last week where he shot all four rounds in the 60's. He's only had two top-10's in 16 British Open events though. Rosey is second in firm and fast around the greens over the last 50 rounds.

Thomas ($10,000) - JT seems to be under-the-radar after his PGA Championship win last year. He teed it up a couple weeks ago at the Open de France finishing T-8. This will be his third time competing at The Open. His first two times were not good: T-53 and cut last year.

There's not one guy of this bunch I'm enamored with. But there are plenty in the groups below.

Middle-Priced Players

Rickie Fowler ($9,700) - I'l keep picking him until he wins his first major. But this really could be the week. I mean it. He's off a terrific Scottish Open that saw him shoot all four rounds in the 60's finishing T-6. His last three Open's have been iffy (T-30, T-46, T-33), but his stats on firm and fast are great. Over the past 50 rounds, he's 14th in approach, fourth in around-the-green, and 12th in putting. He's been so close in majors recently. He was runner-up at The Masters and besides for a brutal third round 84 at the U.S. Open when the course was nearly-impossible, he played very well that week.

Brooks Koepka ($9,200) - He hasn't played since he finished T-19 at the Travelers a month ago. He doesn't need any preps on links because he used to be a former member on the European Tour. Since 2014, he's the top player on links-style courses with four strokes gained (the next best player has 3.4). He's so good with his long irons. The last time British Open's: T-10 in '15 and T-6 last year. He's really flying in under-the-radar and he stands a good chance to win back-to-back majors.

Tiger Woods ($8,900) - I kind of have to write about him when he's playing. If there's a major he's going to win, it's going to be The Open with its spacious fairways and rolling fairways.

Jason Day ($8,800) - The Aussie has had a strong 2018 despite a missed cut at the U.S. Open. He's a perfect 7/7 in cuts made at The Open, but with only one top-20 (T-4 in 2015). Since 2014, he's number one in strokes gained on less-than-driver courses, in windy conditions, and fifth on links-style courses. He's also terrific around the greens.

Henrik Stenson ($8,200) - The 2016 champion will thrive on a course this firm and fast. His accurate 3-wood will roll so far he may even be the longest driver. At this price, you can't not go with him.

Tyrrell Hatton ($7,900) - The Englishman comes into his seventh Open in terrific form. He was T-6 at the U.S. Open, T-16 at the Open de France, and T-9 at the Scottish Open last week. His lone made cut was two years ago where he finished T-5.

Brandon Grace ($7,900) - His low-ball flight will be perfect for this firm and fast course. His ball will roll and roll on these fairways. This will be his first competition since the U.S. Open where he finished T-25.

Low-Priced Players

Lee Westwood ($7,200) - Westy is my deep deep sleeper to win The Open. He's 90-1, but hear me out. Eight of the last 11 British Open champs have been over the age of 35. The 45-year-old Westwood fits that bill.

2010: Westwood, then 38, runner-up to Oosthuizen.

2011: 42-year-old Darren Clarke breaks through to capture his first ever major. Mickelson, then 40, finishes runner-up.

2012: 41-year-old Ernie Els captures his second Open.

2013:  Then 43-year-old Mickelson finally gets his elusive British Open title.

2014: McIlroy defeats fellow youngsters Garcia and Rickie Fowler.

2015: 39-year-old Zach Johnson shocks the golf world winning at St. Andrews.

2016: 40-year-old Henrik Stenson captures his first major defeating then 46-year-old Mickelson in a duel.

2017: Spieth plays inarguably the greatest five-hole stretch golf has ever seen defeating 39-year-old Matt Kuchar.

Do you see a trend of older players doing really well here?

To further validate my hypothesis, I came across this on Twitter,

Older players compete and win this major because you don't need to overpower a links course. You need good ball striking, touch, and play around the greens. That's why the older players have a much much better chance of winning this major than the Masters or U.S. Open.

Westy has had five career top-10 finishes, four of those in the top-5. He's been playing very solid golf of late with a T-19 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and T-32 at the Scottish Open this past week. He shot a 64-67 after two rounds to find himself near the top of the leaderboard, but couldn't sustain that over the weekend. This is finally the time for the former world number one to capture his first major and become champion golfer of the world.

Ryan Fox ($6,900) - The Kiwi is in terrific form after a losing in a playoff at the Irish Open and a T-6 at the Scottish Open last week. This will be his third British Open (T-49 in '15 and cut last year).

Chez Reavie ($6,700) - He's off three consecutive cuts, but I like him because of his strong numbers in proximity. This will be his second time competing at The Open and first since 2012 when he was cut.

Best of luck RotoBallers and be sure to look out for another article coming next week for the Canadian Open!

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools

Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:

Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer

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