Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 7 (2025) - Jonathan Taylor, Quinshon Judkins, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, J.K. Dobbins

October 19, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 7 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

This NFL Main Slate for DFS features a few big-time running backs, but then it falls off quickly as we have yet another week where an early morning game in Europe, plus three primetime games, have sapped the amount of talent that we have to choose from on Sunday afternoon.

I'm breaking down DVOA data, offensive line matchups and ratings, and various other metrics in an attempt to validate some of those matchups that initially stand out and perhaps unearth some sneaky good spots at the same time.

My goal in this weekly article will be to highlight the absolute best matchups for running backs on Sunday's main slate, with a primary focus on DFS. However, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets, too. Let's get to it. Here are my top four matchups for Week 7.

Week 7 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first SIX weeks of data. The first column is the overall offensive rushing attack vs. their opponent, calculated using each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated by using the "adjusted line yards" created and allowed by each team. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

Jonathan Taylor ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

This might seem like a high price to pay for Taylor, but of the high-end bell-cow backs (Taylor, Barkley, Achane, Jacobs), I think Taylor is the obvious choice for the top spend-up on the slate.

The Colts head west to L.A. for another big test. They come into this one 5-1 with their only loss coming to that other team from L.A. in a game where they had two touchdowns wiped off the board by Adonai Mitchell when he dropped the ball before crossing the goal line and then was flagged for holding on a long Taylor TD run.

The Colts game-winning touchdown.

Arizona bites on the potential QB sneak, and Jonathan Taylor gets a wide-open rushing lane for the score.

Peep out that block by Michael Pittman Jr. pic.twitter.com/RfP4i0YWOT

— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 14, 2025

Taylor has been the NFL's most productive runner this season, and I don't think there's really any debating it. The Colts have been running the ball effectively every week and setting up Daniel Jones for success in the play-action pass game. Their offense is centered around Taylor, and they've wisely begun to get him involved with targets as a receiver, too (at least four targets in five straight games).

The matchup here is pretty good as the Chargers' run defense has been shredded two weeks in a row - first by Jacory Croskey-Merritt and then by De'Von Achane last week.

Indy has the best running game matchup score in my ratings, and I won't be overthinking this one. I may lock and load Taylor in cash games and go way over the field in tournaments. I think he's going to have a huge performance on Sunday.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,100 DK, $6,600 FD)

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

JCM, aka "Bill," let a lot of folks (and his team) down last week when he failed to produce in a good spot against the Chicago Bears' run defense. He finished with 61 yards on the ground but had a costly fumble in a game that the Commanders ultimately lost by just a point.

However, he still seems to have the support of his coaches, and I would expect him to continue to be the feature back for Washington this week, even with Chris Rodriguez Jr. returning from injury.

His price and matchup are incredibly appealing. We just saw Rico Dowdle rip off big run after big run against this Dallas defense with holes so big that you could have driven a truck through them. Dallas ranks just 29th in DVOA run defense and has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Look for JCM to bounce back this week with a big game. The Commanders' offense is going to run through him and Deebo Samuel Sr., and the Dallas defense has been the gift (for opposing offenses) that keeps giving.

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Quinshon Judkins ($6,000 DK, $7,400 FD)

Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

I was really hoping to play a lot of Judkins this week in a great spot with his rostership potentially held in check by his bad game against Pittsburgh last week.

However, the conditions projected for the Browns-Dolphins game tomorrow are causing some DFS ripple effects that could easily make Judkins one of the most popular plays on the slate.

With very windy and rainy conditions, we tend to see teams run the football more and pass the football less - it's that simple. If the Browns choose to feed Judkins 25+ touches on Sunday, he could erupt for his best game yet as a pro.

QUINSHON JUDKINS TAKES IT TO THE HOUSE… BUT HOLD UP 🚩
TD wiped out by a flag, brutal for the Browns. 😩 #Browns #NFL #LondonGames pic.twitter.com/hZtKC3pLVB

— Aggregate Sports (@AggregateSports) October 5, 2025

As bad as the Cowboys have been on defense against the run, the Dolphins have been even worse. They rank 29th in DVOA run defense and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Cleveland's talented rookie has flashed some impressive moves and the ability to break tackles. He's had big games against much better defenses. If Cleveland features him (and they should), he could go off in this spot!

J.K. Dobbins ($5,600 DK, $6,700 FD)

Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants

Here's my favorite pivot play for the week. When I first cracked open this slate, the price on Dobbins really caught my attention, and now that we have JCM and Judkins both soaking up a lot of rostership as cheap backs (as well as Breece Hall - for no good reason at all), boring old J.K. Dobbins may come in at single-digit rostership on Sunday.

Dobbins had his worst output of the season last week in London as the Broncos struggled to get the run game going against the Jets. However, leading up to that game, he had recorded at least 14 DK points in his first five games of the season.

The hype surrounding rookie R.J. Harvey hasn't amounted to much as the Broncos have been feeding the veteran Dobbins and letting him be the engine for their offense. This week, he'll face a Giants defense that ranks 31st against the run (DVOA) this season.

Denver's offense is predicated on running the football and the short passing game. I expect Dobbins to bounce back here as the Broncos focus on getting their ground game on track against a team with an obvious weakness that they can exploit.

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