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Which MLB teams will win their divisions in 2024? Joey Pollizze looks at which teams will win their division during the 2024 MLB season.
The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will officially kick off the season with a two-game series on March 20 in Seoul, South Korea. That means the MLB regular season is right around the corner.
Last year, we saw three division winners repeat from the 2022 season (Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, and Houston Astros). The Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, and Milwaukee Brewers were all new division winners in 2023, while the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, and St. Louis Cardinals all failed to repeat.
It remains unlikely that all six division winners from last year will repeat during the 2024 season. So, let's dive in and see which teams will win their divisions this season.
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AL East: New York Yankees
The Yankees did not have a strong 2023 season. They finished fourth in the American League East with an 82-80 record and really underperformed last year. However, a much better season should be in store for New York.
For starters, they went out and acquired Juan Soto. Soto is one of the best outfielders in baseball, and his 5.5 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2023 was in the top 15 in all of baseball. The left-handed slugger will now be hitting atop a Yankees lineup that also features Aaron Judge. There's a strong chance the two can hit a combined 80 HRs and 200 RBI in the middle of the order this season.
Not only do the Yankees have Soto and Judge, but their rotation is pretty solid as well. Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher in the game and is coming off his first Cy Young win. New York also has Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Marcus Stroman to follow in the rotation. When those three starters are pitching their best, this rotation is easily top five in the majors.
4 Sc0reless innings pitched. @STR0 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3JSxuRXkSr
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) March 2, 2024
Runner-up: Baltimore Orioles
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins remain the clear favorites to win the AL Central. Last year, they steamrolled the division and finished with an 87-75 record. Their 87-75 record was nine games better than what the Detroit Tigers, who were second, finished with last year (78-84).
It would be hard to imagine any other team to win this division in 2024. The Twins have both the pitching and hitting to control the AL Central for years to come. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober is extremely underrated, and having a player like Royce Lewis on offense is a difference maker.
The Guardians likely have the best shot to overtake Minnesota for the division title this year. However, outside of Jose Ramirez, the offense might not have enough firepower to carry them. The Royals are the most interesting team in the division after signing multiple players this offseason, but their time is not yet.
Runner-up: Cleveland Guardians
AL West: Houston Astros
Deciding between the Astros and Texas Rangers for the AL West title was tough. Ultimately, the former will enter the season more healthy. That should be big for a team that has won the division in six straight full seasons -- not counting the shortened 2020 campaign.
The Astros had a relatively quiet offseason, but they did sign one of the best closers in Josh Hader. That should be enough to keep them atop the AL West. Houston already had one of the best offenses with players like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez. On top of that, they have a pretty solid rotation of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier.
Josh Hader is on for the Astros to start the 5th inning. This will be his Astros debut.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) March 2, 2024
The Rangers will be extremely competitive in this division, and they, no doubt, have a chance to win it. However, not having Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom for most of the year could be big for their AL West chances.
Runner-up: Texas Rangers
NL East: Atlanta Braves
It would be a complete surprise if the Atlanta Braves don't win the NL East this year. The Braves have won the division in six straight seasons and are coming off a 104-win campaign in 2023. Atlanta also has the best odds on FanGraphs to win its division this season, sitting at 98.5%.
The only team that has a real shot to overthrow the Braves this year in the NL East is the Philadelphia Phillies. They have a great pitching staff led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and a complement of superstars on offense in Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto.
The problem is the Braves just have too much talent. Having a lineup that features Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley is too hard to stop. Atlanta also likely has the top rotation in the majors with Spencer Strider leading the way.
Runner-up: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
The NL Central is the division most up for grabs entering the season. The Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds all have a shot at winning it. However, I'm going to give the edge to Chicago after they re-signed beloved outfielder Cody Bellinger at the end of February.
The Cubs essentially brought back the same team from the 2023 season, except for Shota Imanaga. Imanaga signed with the team earlier this offseason on a four-year, $53 million deal. That signing should help give Chicago another solid rotation arm.
Shota Imanaga's first strikeout of Spring Training!
今永投手、オープン戦初奪三振！ pic.twitter.com/Jf6yDtnr80— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) March 2, 2024
The Cubs were in prime position to win the NL Central in early September, but a late-season collapse hurt their chances. On September 6, they had a 76-64 record and only trailed the Brewers by 1.5 games. Then, the team went 7-15 in the final 22 games. With Milwaukee blowing things up this offseason, this should be Chicago's division in 2024.
Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
There's likely no team that will compete with the Dodgers for the NL West title. They have won the division in 10 of the past 11 years while winning at least 100 games in five of the last six full seasons. Then, Los Angeles went out and signed arguably the best all-around player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani.
That signing has made the Dodgers the team to beat in the entire NL. Having a lineup that features Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ohtani at the top will be extremely difficult for any pitcher to get through. Don't forget, they also acquired two of the best pitchers this offseason in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow.
Los Angeles has plenty of talent up and down its roster, making it hard for any team to overtake them in the NL West.
Runner-up: Arizona Diamondbacks
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