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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/25/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Bryan Reynolds, Pete Alonso, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez.
The MLB regular season is winding down, and this will be my last home run betting article until the postseason. Although I will be back for Tuesday's Wild Card Series to help find some dingers, I wanted to say how fun it was and how appreciative I am of being able to write this article all season. Let's dig into today's 12-game MLB slate.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, September 25, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/25/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, September 25:
- Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets
- Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
- Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners
Bryan Reynolds OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 DraftKings)
Our first bet of the day comes in the first game on today’s slate of games between the Pirates and the Reds. This game will be played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, one of the best parks in the major leagues for home runs.
Nick Lodolo has been giving up a ton of home runs this season, but especially as of late. He has allowed 22 home runs this season. He has a 2.29 HR/9 and a 42.4% FB over the last 30 days. He has a 4.50 HR/9 and a 46.9% Hard Hit over his previous two starts.
Right-handed bats are where we want to attack Lodolo. He has allowed 19 home runs this season to right-handed hitters. He has allowed a .386 SLG, .168 ISO, 10.7% Brl, and a 40.2% Hard Hit against the split.
Reynolds leads the Pirates with 16 home runs. He hits southpaws particularly well, slashing .243/.327/.429 with a .756 OPS in 2025. Reynolds is hot with a .393 SLG and a .793 OPS over the last 10 days.
Lodolo has surrendered 10 of his home runs against right-handed hitters to his four-seam fastball. It has a .520 SLG and a .285 ISO against it. Reynolds has a .543 SLG, .257 ISO, and two home runs against the four-seam fastball this season.
I tend to hit the first bet on the day, so let's have Reynolds get us started this afternoon.
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 FanDuel)
Our second home run bet of the day will take place at night in Wrigley Field. The Mets and the Cubs will battle again, and as of writing this, the wind is projected to be blowing at only two miles per hour; even in this stadium, it is unlikely to have a significant impact.
Shota Imanaga will toe the rubber for the Cubs and has given up 29 home runs this season. He has allowed a 1.88 HR/9, 55.1% FB, and a 34.9% Hard Hit this season. Over the last 30 days, he has allowed a 3.10 HR/9, 54.8% FB, and a 38.8% Hard Hit.
Right-handed hitters have been the kryptonite for Imanaga. He has allowed 26 home runs to the split along with a .454 SLG, .237 ISO, 14.6% Brl, and a 44.7% Hard Hit. These numbers are prone to giving up a home run or two in this spot.
The Mets have been red hot, but no one has been hotter than Pete Alonso. He has four home runs over the last ten days. He is slashing .400/.463/.771 with a 1.235 OPS during that span. Alonso has 37 home runs on the season and has a .523 SLG and a .250 ISO in 2025.
Imanaga has allowed 19 home runs this season to right-handed hitters off his four-seam fastball. It has a .602 SLG and a .374 ISO against it. Alonso crushed the four seamer. He has six home runs off it against left-hand pitching, including a .647 SLG and a .392 ISO.
Alonso is putting one over the ivy.
Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (TBD)
Our next two bets are from the same team and game, so we will group these. The Mariners will square off against the Rockies in T-Mobile Park.
Bradley Blalock will get the rock for the Rockies, and he has been abysmally bad. He has allowed a 2.62 HR/9 and a 37.9% Hard Hit this season. Over the last two starts, he has a 5.63 HR/9, 48.4% FB, and a 45.% Hard Hit. That is about as bad as you can get.
The Rockies’ bullpen has been just as bad as Blalock. They have allowed a 1.90 HR/9, 39.7% FB, and a 41.7% Hard Hit over their last 30 days collectively. We will have a great matchup throughout the entire game.
Blalock has allowed power to both sides of the plate. He has allowed eight home runs to right-handed hitters, including a .598 SLG, .265 ISO, 16.0% Brl, and a 55.3% Hard Hit. He has allowed eight home runs to lefties as well, with a .600 SLG, .240 ISO, 11.6% Brl, and a 36.6% Hard Hit. I am not worried about what split we are betting here; it's all about the guys who are going to hit the long ball.
Cal Raleigh has 60 home runs in 2025. He has 37 against right-handed pitching, where he is slashing .228/.363/.538 with a .901 OPS. He has a .813 SLG, 1.248 OPS, and has hit seven home runs over the last ten days.
Blalock has allowed five home runs off his four-seamer to lefties as well as two with the splitter. His four-seamer has a .682 SLG and a .303 ISO against it, where his splitter has a .500 SLG and a .219 ISO. Raleigh hits both of these pitches well, especially the four-seam. He has a .483 SLG, .290 ISO, and 13 home runs off the four-seamer. He has a .609 SLG, .304 IOS, and two home runs off the splitter.
Eugenio Suarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (TBD)
This leads me to my next bet from the Mariners, which is their other big bopper in Eugenio Suarez, who is on his quest to 50. Suarez has 47 home runs in 2025 and has a .537 SLG and a .298 ISO this season.
He has hit 34 of his home runs off right-handed pitching. He is slashing .249/.312/.544 with a .857 OPS against the split in 2025. He has a 14.7% Brl and is red hot. He has two home runs with a .472 SLG over the last ten days.
Against lefties, Blalock has allowed six of his eight home runs off his four-seam. Righties have a .784 SLG and a .392 ISO against it this season. Suarez has 11 home runs with a .554 SLG and a .313 ISO over four seasons in 2025.
I love this spot for both Mariners to leave the yard.
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