MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/26/2025)

September 26, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/26/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Michael Busch, Kyle Schwarber, and Andrew Vaughn.

It is a typically large slate for this Friday, September 26, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. It is also the last Friday edition of this article for the regular season, so I hope you have all enjoyed this piece throughout the course of the season. And, of course, we will look to continue keeping the good times rolling! Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups as well as some solid parks where home runs are more prevalent. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, September 26, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/26/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, September 26:

• Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
• Andrew Vaughn, Milwaukee Brewers

Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+253 DraftKings)

We are going to start this Friday’s article where we typically start, when there is an afternoon game being played at Wrigley Field, and that is with a Cubs’ hitter that has been on fire recently in Michael Busch. Over the previous two weeks, Busch has posted an OPS of 1.070 while mashing a total of five home runs. The power is not all that surprising, given that he has hit a total of 31 home runs this season. The power metrics look superb as well.

Overall, Busch has posted a hard hit rate of 38.5%, which ranks him in the top 14% of the league. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 92.1 mph, ranking him in the top 10% of the league. Lastly, Busch has a 10.7% Barrels/PA mark, which ranks him in the top 3% of the league. Busch has hit right-handed pitching rather well in 2025, as noted by his .815 OPS, and he has performed well at Wrigley Field, posting an OPS close to .800.

The matchup against St. Louis Cardinals’ right-hander Miles Mikolas is also a solid one. Overall, Mikolas has allowed a total of 26 home runs, with 15 coming off the bats of left-handed hitters. He has also looked pretty rough in the metrics department. On the season, Mikolas has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.3 mph, ranking him in the bottom 11% of the league. He has also allowed 27.1% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 13% of the league.

Additionally, he has given up a Barrels/BBE mark of 7.2%, which has him ranked in the bottom 2% of the league. It should also be noted that Mikolas has allowed two bombs to Busch across 13 career PA. 

Home run No. 30 for Michael Busch gets the @Cubs on the board! pic.twitter.com/m342wYEEKQ

— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2025

Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+158 DraftKings)

I typically do not post players with odds this low; however, Schwarber is chasing 60 home runs and makes for a fun story tonight, so we are going to include him. On the season, he has hit a total of 56 home runs, so he needs to rack up four this weekend to enter rarified air. Over the previous two weeks, Schwarber has racked up six home runs while posting an OPS of 1.145, so the recency looks really good here. The power metrics, of course, also look superb.

On the season, Schwarber has posted an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph, which ranks him in the top 2% of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate of 44.5%, ranking him inside the top 1% of the league. Lastly, he has posted a Barrels/PA mark of 11.7%, which has him ranked inside the top 2% of the league. Quite frankly, Schwarber has been an absolute power machine, which is bad news for Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan.

On the season, Ryan has given up a whopping 25 home runs. Of these 25 home runs, 16 have come off the bats of left-handed hitters. He has also given up a ton of power in general. Overall, Ryan has allowed an average exit velocity of 82.8 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 22% of the league.

He has also allowed 23.6% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom half of the league. His 5.9% Barrels/BBE mark also places him in the bottom 13% of the league. Ryan will also be on the road in this one, where he has allowed more than one home run per nine innings pitched. 

KYLE SCHWARBER REACHES 50 HOME RUNS! pic.twitter.com/8YRpNyJ59n

— MLB (@MLB) September 10, 2025

Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+TBD DraftKings)

Now, back to our regularly scheduled (what should be) better odds plays with Andrew Vaugn. Vaughn has been a solid producer for the Brewers this season, having compiled 14 home runs across his 436 PA, while posting an OPS of .724. He has also looked pretty solid recently, as he has an OPS of 1.047 across his previous 55 PA. 

The power metrics for Vaughn also look pretty solid, as he has posted an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph, which ranks him in the top 15% of the league. Additionally, he has posted a solid hard hit rate of 35.3%, which ranks him in the top 33% of the league. He has also shown us a 9% Barrels/PA mark, which has him ranked inside the top 8% of the league.

Vaughn will be at home in this one as well, where he has posted an .804 OPS compared to a .654 on the road. He should be in a good spot against Cincinnati Reds right-handers Zack Littell.

We have picked on Littell several time throughout the installments of this article, and for good reason. On the season, he has allowed a whopping 36 home runs, with 20 of these coming off right-handed bats. The power metrics behind him have also started to decline over the previous month or so. He now sits with an average exit velocity allowed of nearly 84 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 3% of the league.

Additionally, he has now allowed 26.6% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which has him sitting in the bottom 15% of the league. His Barrels/BBE mark is not much better, sitting at 6%, and ranking him in the bottom 10% of the league. While he has performed a tad better on the road, he is still sitting with a 1.7 HR/9 allowed mark on the road, which is nothing to write home about.

Once Littell is done, he will give way to a Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen that has allowed a total of 73 home runs this season, which ranks them near the bottom half of baseball. 

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