RADIO
RotoBaller staff's fantasy football sleepers, avoids, and start 'em sit 'em picks for Week 4 of 2025. Expert lineup advice from Adam Koffler, Rob Lorge, and Thunder Dan Palyo.
If your fantasy team is off to a hot start, then you have done something right, but things can change quickly with role changes and injuries, so continue to stay diligent with your start-sit calls. And if you're struggling through three weeks of NFL action, there is still plenty of time to turn the tide. It's a long season, and bye weeks are set to begin next week.
It's time for the next edition of our RotoBaller staff start-or-sit calls. Three of the industry's best analysts are here to break down 17 potential sleepers and busts ahead of the full slate of Week 4 NFL action.
These fantasy football sleepers, avoids, and busts are from top RotoBaller contributors Adam Koffler, Rob Lorge, and Thunder Dan Palyo. Good luck in Week 4!
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Week 4 Fantasy Football Sleepers - Start 'Em Picks
Woody Marks, Texans vs. Titans (Rob Lorge)
His role is growing with each passing week. In Week 3, he played 49% of the snaps to Nick Chubb’s 51%. He also ran 16 routes to Chubb’s 17. We’re drawing awfully close to this being a full-fledged committee. That’s great news for the rookie! He was a complete afterthought in Week 1. A long-shot lottery ticket, but already in Week 3, he’s someone who has managed to flirt with flex-appeal value. He’s still someone who finds himself ranked outside of the top-45 for running backs, but if you’re in a league with large starting rosters, he’s someone to consider.
In Weeks 1 and 2, he received just three carries in each contest. That doubled in Week 3. Six is still far too few for Marks to be effective or a dependable starter, but he’s trending in the right direction. Chubb has left quite a bit to be desired through three weeks, and the offense has been abysmal. That’s not entirely Chubb’s fault, but it would make sense for Houston to switch things up and see if the rookie can add some juice. If you’re in a 14-team league or a league that starts 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and a flex, Marks could be worth a look. He’s not a confident start yet unless you’re in one of those bigger leagues, but his time may be coming sooner than we think.
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots vs. Panthers (Adam Koffler)
Fantasy managers are scared to start Henderson, and rightfully so. The rookie out of Ohio State is averaging an abysmal 3.42 yards per carry and has yet to play over 50% of the snaps in each of his first three games. But that all changes this week after Rhamondre Stevenson coughed it up twice in Week 3. In fact, it changed immediately after the fumbles last week. After Stevenson’s second fumble, Henderson took over as the bellcow. He had an 84% snap share, 71% route participation rate, and 90% of the RB attempts from that point forward. Then, in this week’s first practice, Henderson was the first RB up in drills. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. If Henderson is the new starter, which it appears he is, this is the breakout week we’ve all been waiting for.
TreVeyon Henderson the First RB Up in Drills at Wednesday's Practice https://t.co/6YKfMaCuuW
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 24, 2025
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts at Rams (Thunder Dan)
The Colts' passing attack has been incredibly productive this season, and this week they should finally be tested by a very good Rams team on the road. The Rams' defense is good enough up front to load up against the run and slow down Jonathan Taylor, forcing Daniel Jones to beat them through the air - that simply has to be the game plan. Pittman Jr. has had two big weeks already this year and a healthy 22% target share. Look for him to be Jones' top target this week in a matchup he can win.
Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants vs. Chargers (Rob Lorge)
I wanted to go with Matthew Golden, but Adam had already called him, so we’re going to dive even deeper and go with Wan’Dale Robinson. Robinson had 139 targets last year. Through three weeks, he has 22 targets, so we can trust the volume being there. Last year, what held him back was the fact that he averaged just 4.5 air yards per target. It’s how he managed to fail to eclipse 700 yards with 139 targets.
This year, however, his air yard per target average has increased to 12.5 yards. His yards per reception have gone from 7.5 to 14.9. This increases his ceiling significantly. It’s a brutal matchup, though. Let’s get that out of the way. The Chargers allow the eighth-fewest points to receivers this season. There are two things we can help to offset that. The first is Jaxson Dart under center. Russell Wilson throws a fine deep ball, but that’s all he throws. Dart, in theory, has a better chance of keeping drives moving and on track.
He could very well give this offense a jolt and be better than Wilson. The bar for that isn’t very high. The second is the game script. Going against the Chargers, we should expect New York to be done early. That should lead to a game where New York is forced to air it out. That increased volume should help Robinson get 4-5 catches. Using Robinson as a sleeper is more for larger leagues where you’re starting three receivers and a flex or four receivers.
Matthew Golden, Packers at Cowboys (Adam Koffler)
Everyone wondered who would step up for the Packers in Week 3 with Jayden Reed out for the foreseeable future. The answer was very clearly rookie Matthew Golden. His route participation rate increased to a season-high 80% without Reed in Week 3, and he led all Packer wideouts with seven touches (four targets and three rush attempts). Last week, he faced a tough Cleveland defense allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game this season (147), and still led the team with 52 receiving yards. This week, he gets a Cowboys defense allowing the most passing yards per game this season (288). Per Fantasy Points Data, the Cowboys have also allowed the most yards (444) on passes over 20+ yards in the air. This is where Golden can thrive. Fire him up in a juicy Week 4 matchup.
Tony Pollard, Titans at Texans (Thunder Dan)
It's been difficult to rely on any of Tennessee's offensive players so far this season, but this week, Pollard gets a matchup that he and the Titans' offensive line can win against Houston. With Tyjae Spears still out, Pollard should be fed as many touches as he can handle against a Houston defensive line that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards allowed through the first three games. Tennessee should be in this game for four quarters, and the likelihood of Pollard getting game-scripted out of this one is much lower than in prior weeks. Safely plug him in as your RB2 or FLEX this week.
Xavier Worthy, Chiefs vs. Ravens (Rob Lorge)
Worthy has been practicing in full this week. Based on that, fantasy managers should expect Worthy to suit up and play this weekend for the first time since Week 1. Fantasy managers can often be hesitant to start a player coming off an injury, especially one that wasn’t drafted super high. There are concerns about snap count and utilization, which is understandable. However, the Chiefs need Worthy in the worst kind of way. Their receiver room is putrid, which is putting it kindly.
Add in the fact that Travis Kelce has been unable to separate himself from the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton, and Worthy is likely to move to the top of Patrick Mahomes’ target hierarchy immediately. The fact that Kansas City is in dire need of better receiver play could mean we don’t have a snap count to be concerned about. The matchup, however, can help alleviate some of those concerns. Baltimore is allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to receivers this season. They’ve allowed the second-most passing yards and eighth-most passing touchdowns.
Chiefs listed WR Xavier Worthy as a full participant in today’s practice, putting him on track to play Sunday against Baltimore. pic.twitter.com/r8LwL18Ev2
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 24, 2025
Their opponents are averaging 32 points per game, and in two out of the three games, have scored more than 35. Even if Worthy is on a snap count, in what is very likely to be a shoot-out, he could still pay dividends. He’s generally ranked outside the top-40 this week due to some of the unknowns with his status and the concerns about how healthy he is and how much he’ll play. For me, he’s a solid WR3 play with top-20 upside in a game that could easily be played in the high-30s.
Oronde Gadsden, Chargers at Giants (Adam Koffler)
Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Panthers (Thunder Dan)
Henry is coming off a monster game against the Steelers and now faces another leaky defense vs. the TE position - the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. He's seen very solid target volume now in two of three games and is one of the New England pass-catchers who seems to be separating himself in terms of his level of trust from quarterback Drake Maye.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Avoids - Sit 'Em Picks
Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars at 49ers (Rob Lorge)
Etienne has gotten off to a hot start, but there are some reasons to be hesitant. For starters, he kicked off the season playing the Panthers and Bengals. Through three weeks, the Panthers are allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game. They’re also allowing the third-highest yards per carry average. The Bengals are allowing the second-most points to running backs this season. Last week, Etienne’s snap and route share were the lowest of the season. He played just 55% of the snaps. A Jacksonville running back has only one game this season in which they accounted for a 10% target share or higher. It was back in Week 1 when Etienne had a 10.3% target share.
This week, they’ll be facing off against the 49ers, who have allowed the eighth-fewest points to running backs this season. I also think it’s a game the Jaguars could find themselves trailing in rather quickly. This brings us back to the fact that, through three weeks, the Jacksonville running backs are averaging just five targets per game between the three of them.
If Jacksonville gets down early (which I suspect), and they’re forced to pass the ball, Trevor Lawrence has rarely targeted his running backs this season. Etienne may very well need to fall into the end zone to end up with a good game, but inside the red zone, Bhaysul Tuten continues to get opportunities. Etienne has played too well to bench him, but he’s a player to temper expectations for this week. As someone who is almost universally ranked as a top-20 running back, Etienne is a strong bust candidate for the week.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers at Patriots (Adam Koffler)
Chuba Hubbard had 20 opportunities last week, but that was in a 30-0 blowout win over the Falcons. What’s notable here is how much valuable red zone work Rico Dowdle has siphoned away from Hubbard in the last two games. Dowdle has six red zone carries to just one for Hubbard. Hubbard’s RB opportunity share has also fallen from 75% in Week 1 to 64% in Week 3. The opportunities have been steady to start the season, but Hubbard has yet to score a rushing touchdown and is averaging just 3.91 yards per carry. In Week 4, he’ll face off against a Patriots defense allowing the second-fewest rushing yards this season.
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers at Patriots (Thunder Dan)
McMillan is a tough sit this week, because he was drafted as a WR2 by most managers. But I do worry a bit about him against the Patriots as they get their top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, back. McMillan should see a healthy dose of Gonzalez this week and should be in for his biggest test vs. a shutdown corner of his young career. You may still have to start him if you don't have other options, but this matchup is much tougher than it looks on paper, as New England's pass defense is about to get a major upgrade.
George Pickens, Cowboys vs. Packers (Rob Lorge)
With Lamb almost guaranteed to miss Week 4, Pickens finds himself sky-rocketing weekly rankings almost to the point of being a top-12 receiver. We’re getting a little carried away here, especially in what amounts to an incredibly difficult matchup. Before we get to the matchup, however, how about the fact that Jake Ferguson out-targeted George Pickens after the CeeDee Lamb injury in Week 3? Pickens’ strengths are downfield targets. He excels in one-on-one opportunities where he can go up and attack the ball without safety help.
CeeDee Lamb was the one who held those safeties. Now, Pickens will get all the defensive attention. There’s no one left in Dallas for any defense to feel threatened by. You double or throw bracket coverage towards Pickens to take away the deep ball and Dak Prescott’s preferred No. 1 option, and when that doesn’t happen, Prescott is forced to dump it down. Hello, Jake Ferguson! Sound familiar? It should because that’s what happened last week, and I expect it to happen again this week.
To make matters worse, they’re going up against the Green Bay Packers, who may very well have the best defense in the NFL. Through three games, they are allowing just 19.9 half-PPR PPG to wide receivers. Total. That’s the fourth-lowest. They held Amon-Ra St. Brown to four catches, 45 yards, and just 6.5 half-PPR points. They held Jameson Williams to four catches and 23 yards, for just 4.6 half-PPR points. They held Deebo Samuel to seven catches for 44 yards, one touchdown, and 13.9 points.
Jerry Jeudy had just one catch for 17 yards (2.2 points), and Cedric Tillman had three catches for 26 yards (4.1 points). No receiver has had 50 yards against them yet. You have to start him because it’s unlikely you have better options, but brace yourself for pain and misery. This defense is for real, and worse, they’re likely to be playing angry after losing to the Browns last week.
Quinshon Judkins, Browns at Lions (Adam Koffler)
Judkins looked pretty good last week, rushing 18 times for 94 yards and a touchdown. Surprisingly, the Browns kept the game competitive (and eventually came out victorious) against the Packers. This week could look a whole lot different, however, and Vegas agrees. The Browns are 10-point road underdogs in Detroit, and Judkins isn’t used very much in the passing game. In his first two games, he’s had route participation rates of 18% and 29%. His 6.8% target share also leaves a lot to be desired. If the Browns get down big early and are forced to throw, Judkins could struggle to reach double-digit fantasy points in Week 4.
Calvin Ridley, Titans at Texans (Thunder Dan)
While I love Tony Pollard this week against Houston, I really have no faith in Ridley in what should be a tough matchup against the Texans' secondary. We have yet to see Ridley perform at the level we expected going into this season, so the confidence level is low for managers here, and it might also be pretty low for quarterback Cam Ward, who is having more success when targeting other Tennessee wideouts. Ridley belongs on your bench until we see him prove that he's worthy of a start.
Calvin Ridley Working Through Early-Season Struggles https://t.co/f3B88fenIC
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 25, 2025
Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. Browns (Rob Lorge)
Through three weeks, the common theme has been don’t play anyone against the Cleveland Browns. They shut down Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense. They shut down Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense. They held Ja’Marr Chase to two catches for 26 yards. Tee Higgins had just three catches for 33 yards. Mark Andrews had one catch for two yards. Tucker Kraft had three catches for 29 yards.
Through three weeks, Cleveland is allowing just 8.7 half-PPR points to tight ends this year. This isn’t entirely straightforward either. John FitzPatrick of the Packers caught a touchdown against them. He only had 14 yards. Noah Fant also caught a touchdown against the Browns. He only had 26 yards. Fant finished with 10.6 half-PPR points. Fitzpatrick had 8.2, all while finding the end zone. Andrews had 0.9 and Kraft had 4.4 half-PPR points when they failed to find the end zone.
There’s virtually no upside here without LaPorta falling into the end zone. Even if he’s able to do that, the ceiling might still be just 10-12 points. Laporta is an excellent talent on an excellent offense, so it’s impossible to bench him, but going up against the Cleveland Browns’ elite defense, don’t be surprised if he busts.
DK Metcalf, Steelers vs. Vikings (Adam Koffler)
Metcalf has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and has now produced double-digit fantasy points in all three games to start the season. But he’ll be hard-pressed to keep that streak going in Week 4 against a Vikings team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (10.7) to outside wide receivers. That’s where Metcalf lines up on 90% of his snaps. If not for the two touchdowns the last two weeks, we’d be talking about Metcalf as one of the biggest wide receiver busts so far in 2025. He ranks just 40th among receivers in first downs per route run (0.079) and 49th in yards per route run (1.52). You’ll want to sit him this weekend in Ireland.
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