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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 4 of the 2025 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts to avoid in Week 4 fantasy football lineups.
Welcome back to our fantasy football bust candidates for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Three weeks of data is just the beginning, but enough to form conjectures.
There are some statistical outliers. Seattle is giving up the second-most receptions to running backs, but they've played against some of the league's best backfield pass-catchers (Christian McCaffrey, Jaylen Warren, and Alvin Kamara). But others make sense.
Below, we sort through the stats and find 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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David Montgomery (RB, DET) vs. Cleveland
David Montgomery saw his name in the bust column last week and averaged 12 yards per carry against the Ravens. Baltimore ruled out DT Nnamdi Madubuike on Saturday, and the Lions coaching staff took full advantage of the missing big man.
DAVID MONTGOMERY RUMBLES FOR 72 YARDS!
DETvsBAL on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/PcvsC3hJgW— NFL (@NFL) September 23, 2025
The touches still aren't there for Montgomery. Despite his overall RB2 Week 3, the veteran did all of his damage on 12 carries and one catch. Montgomery is seeing 11 rush attempts per game, down two from his 2024 average and 3.5 fewer than his career average. It takes great efficiency, as we saw on Monday night, for Montgomery to deliver for fantasy football.
The Cleveland Browns are healthy in the front seven and THE run defense to avoid so far in 2025. Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs have combined for 96 rushing yards, and the unit has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to backfields. As always, we can't rely on Montgomery making up for the lack of rushing through the passing game, something Jacobs did a week ago. That role is reserved for Jahmyr Gibbs.
Nick Chubb (RB, HOU) vs. Tennessee
In Week 1, Woody Marks was on the field for 11% of Houston's offensive snaps. That number increased to 26.5% in Week 2. Last week, Marks nearly hit the 50% mark. Notice the trend?
The rookie's play took third-down back Dare Ogunbowale completely out of the rotation. He didn't play an offensive snap against the Jaguars. Marks and starter Nick Chubb split third-down snaps. While Chubb saw 10 more early-down snaps, Marks dominated two-minute drill usage.
#Texans Week 3 RB Usage
- Nick Chubb: 51% snaps, 9 carries, 17 routes, 4 targets (40 yards)
- Woody Marks: 49% snaps, 6 carries, 16 routes, 2 targets (36 yds)Marks starting to get more involved
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 21, 2025
It's no secret that the Houston coaching staff is displeased with the offensive production. C.J. Stroud has struggled mightily, the offensive line is a disaster, and Week 3 was the first game where they got receiving support outside of Nico Collins.
Chubb actually hasn't been terrible, at least on a per-carry basis. His 4.1 yards per attempt is an improvement from the 3.3 he averaged in Cleveland last season. Marks has been better the last two weeks (4.7 and 4.5, respectively) and adds a receiving element to the backfield - something Chubb hasn't been known for throughout his career.
The matchup against the Titans isn't worrisome. Tennessee has given up five rushing touchdowns through three games and is near the top of fantasy points allowed. However, the Houston offense doesn't generate many scoring opportunities. They have zero red zone touchdowns to date. If Chubb is splitting touches and has low touchdown odds, that's not a running back you want in your lineup.
D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI) at Las Vegas
Don't let the 60-yard touchdown scamper by Jeremy McNichols fool you. The Las Vegas Raiders quietly have a great run defense so far this year (and had McNichols all but wrapped up multiple times on that run).
The Patriots' running backs took 13 carries for 45 yards in Week 1. Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris combined for 52 yards on 16 attempts in Week 2. Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt averaged 3.4 yards per carry.
D'Andre Swift hasn't instilled confidence in new head coach Ben Johnson that he can be the lead back for the entire 2025 campaign. He took 13 carries and picked up 33 yards against a dreadful Dallas defense, bringing his YPC average to 3.5 this season.
Kyle Monangai is beginning to carve out a role in the Chicago offense. The preseason hope for Swift was that he'd make up for his inefficiencies by dominating backfield touches. Although it's just seven to eight touches per game for the rookie, it's enough to be worried about Swift's outlook for not only this week, but the rest of the season.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) vs. Baltimore
Isiah Pacheco normally wouldn't qualify for this column. He's busted in every game this season and made headlines for two questionable decisions on laterals from Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes steals back the fumble after the backwards pass
KCvsNYG on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/o5gzdLDv5K— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2025
But some fantasy managers will see the green Baltimore matchup (most rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and running back receptions given up) and think, maybe, just maybe, this is the week where Pacheco turns it around. The Ravens are without their star run-stuffing defensive tackle, Madubuike, this weekend.
Pacheco averaged 4.5 yards per carry against an almost equally poor New York Giants run defense. That's a good number, but there's little involvement in the passing game (four catches in three games), and Kareem Hunt has a grip on the goal line role. That's too many missed high-value touches for Pacheco to deliver.
He may look good on the ground and break off a few good chunk plays against Baltimore. However, 10 carries for 55 yards, no touchdowns, and one short reception won't cut it, and fantasy managers will have fallen for the juicy matchup.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) at Denver (MNF)
Here's a weird stat: Jake Browning has targeted a Cincinnati tight end on about 33% of his pass attempts this season. It's a small sample (no pun intended, Drew) size, but Browning also showed a tendency to lean on the position in his 2023 starts. Remember when Tanner Hudson was lowkey fantasy-relevant?
A target rate that high for the least threatening skill position on Cincinnati's roster lowers the ceiling for the bigger names, like Tee Higgins. Browning has thrown in Higgins' direction seven times since Burrow's injury, including just two in the blowout loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
The Vikings are a great defense, and Brian Flores' schemes confuse inexperienced quarterbacks. Browning has to go on the road again, against another strong defense in Denver, on Monday night. The Broncos are a top-10 unit against fantasy wide receivers.
It's fair to be concerned about Ja'Marr Chase as well, especially with All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II likely shadowing him, but nobody is going as far as to bench Chase. Higgins, on the other hand, can slide down the fantasy roster.
Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) vs. New Orleans
In a perfect world, opposing teams would be competitive against the Buffalo Bills, forcing Josh Allen to showcase his MVP skills, and he and the Bills' skill players would all be fantasy all-stars. But that's all just a dream.
There are only a handful of teams that can compete on a week-to-week basis with Buffalo, and New Orleans is definitely not one. At the time of this writing, the Bills are 15.5-point home favorites. That's the largest spread so far this season, three more points than the 12.5 the Ravens were favored over the Browns in Week 2.
If the game script plays out the way Vegas oddmakers (and the rest of the world) predict, Allen may not attempt more than 25 passes. That's how many times he threw the ball in a 20-point victory over the Jets in Week 2.
Downgrade all of the Buffalo pass catchers, but Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman in particular. Both need volume for consistent production. A touchdown could come early in the contest as Buffalo builds their lead, but that's not something you want to count on in your starting lineup.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, PIT) vs. Minnesota (Dublin)
Aaron Rodgers has targeted his wide receivers 35 times this season.
The Minnesota Vikings have allowed opposing wide receivers to be targeted on 41 occasions. That's the third-lowest total, and it's converted into just 25 catches, the fewest in the league.
Isaiah Rodgers rightly got a lot of praise for his two TDs but the play I keep thinking of was this pass breakup
Effectively Cover 0, Rodgers (5'10", 180 lbs) is 1v1 with Tee Higgins (6'4", 220).
No panic, Rodgers maintains position and perfectly plays the ball to deny the TD: pic.twitter.com/0DR4GyF4HA
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) September 22, 2025
You can see where I'm going with this. The Vikings do have a great pass defense, but the numbers are so low, in part, because of the pace of play. Minnesota and Pittsburgh are in the bottom four in plays per game, and in the bottom third in seconds between snaps. That's reflected in an over/under of 41 points, ahead of only the Houston-Tennessee matchup.
So, D.K. Metcalf will need to be ultra-efficient to return WR2/3 production, and, as RotoBaller writer Corbin Young notes, Metcalf struggles when defenses line up two-high safeties. That's a common look for Flores and the Minnesota defense.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN) at Pittsburgh (Dublin)
Welcome to the 2025 season, T.J. Hockenson.
The Minnesota tight end exceeded his reception (five) and yardage total (49) in Week 3 than the previous two games combined. And he found the endzone for the first time in a regular season since November 2023.
Carson Wentz throws another TD!
CINvsMIN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/xDZUA990WM
— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2025
The usage with Carson Wentz under center compared to J.J. McCarthy is encouraging, but it’s still only six targets. Wentz should have to throw more than 20 times this week against the Steelers, but Jordan Addison is returning from his suspension to command targets as the second option in the passing game.
While the score will be closer than Minnesota’s dismantling of the Bengals, Aaron Rodgers and Co. aren’t lighting up the scoreboard and should struggle to score against the Flores-led defense. Expect a run-oriented offensive game plan for the Vikings, with Justin Jefferson and Addison, to a lesser extent, taking the bulk of the targets.
Zach Ertz (TE, WAS) at Atlanta
Zach Ertz - one of the most boring names in fantasy football despite TE1 numbers throughout his Washington tenure - may have some extra appeal this weekend. Star wide receiver Terry McLaurin (quad) is at risk of missing Sunday's matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, while quarterback Jayden Daniels may return after missing one game.
Jayden Daniels was limited again.
Terry McLaurin, Bill, Noah Brown, John Bates and Percy Butler were all out again.
Trey Amos was upgraded to full. pic.twitter.com/UgsQuVdXuX
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 25, 2025
If fantasy managers weren't utilizing him before as a streaming (or permanent) tight end option, Week 4 may look like the opportune time to plug him into the starting lineup. But wait! Think about the matchup!
Tight ends have a total of six catches for 48 yards and zero touchdowns against the Falcons. Reception and yards totals only trail the Buffalo Bills.
Atlanta hasn't faced the who's who of tight ends (Cade Otton, T.J. Hockenson, and Ja'Tavion Sanders), but Ertz isn't a high-ceiling guy either. If McLaurin is out, the Atlanta defense can shift its focus more on Ertz as the second option behind Deebo Samuel Sr.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) vs. Green Bay
Micah Parsons' return to Dallas isn't going to be a joyful occasion for Dak Prescott.
Dallas' franchise quarterback faces his former teammate and the ferocious Green Bay defense without two starting offensive linemen and his All-Pro wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (high ankle sprain) will miss at least the next two games, not expected to go on IR. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/GNCSOUWq9U
— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2025
Without center Cooper Beebe and Lamb, Prescott whiffed on what was projected to be a smash play against the Chicago secondary. The Bears allow the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, even with Prescott's 14 weighing down the average.
Prescott is now also without guard Tyler Booker. The Packers give up the second-fewest fantasy points to signal callers, including stifling Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels. Given his shaky fantasy start and having one reliable wide receiver this weekend, Prescott is the slam dunk of sits.
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