3 years agoIn 2020, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso posted just a .231/.326/.490 slash line over 239 plate appearances, despite hitting 16 home runs with 35 RBI. In 2021, Alonso successfully rebounded. While he did not reach his 53 HR rookie campaign level of success, he still put up a solid .262/.344/.519 slash line with 37 HR, 94 RBI, and 27 doubles over 637 plate appearances. Alonso's metrics supported his power production. His overall exit velocity was the highest of his career at 91 mph. He had a 95 mph EV on FB/LD (in the top 30 among all qualified hitters), as well as a barrel rate in the top-11% of MLB, and a hard-hit rate in the top-20% of MLB. His line drive and fly ball rates were also consistent with his career numbers. If anything, Alonso may have underperformed by hitting "just" 37 HR. His bounce-back in batting average and on-base percentage was supported by a .270 xBA, and a strikeout rate that dropped to just 19.9% (over 6% lower than his prior two campaigns). Although his walk rate dipped almost 1% from his 2020 and 2019 marks, his OBP was only a slight tick off of the .358 OBP he posted in his spectacular 2019 rookie season. Heading into 2022, nothing in Alonso's batted ball profile suggests regression in any hitting category. If anything, Alonso should see positive regression in power totals and likely break the 40 HR mark in 2022. He should also eclipse the 100 RBI plateau due to the addition of outfielder Starling Marte to the Mets batting order and a likely bounce-back campaign from shortstop Francisco Lindor. With a current ADP of 62, Alonso is correctly being drafted as the fifth or sixth first baseman off of boards in 2022. He can provide managers with 40-to-45 HR, over 100 RBI, and a slash line similar to his 2021 numbers.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller