5 years agoIt seems strange to rely on a Cincinnati Reds hurler to anchor a fantasy rotation, but Luis Castillo looks primed to do just that in 2020. The 27-year-old went 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 3.48 xFIP in 190 2/3 IP last season, notching plenty of strikeouts along the way (28.9 K%). The secret to Castillo's success is a diabolical changeup, which batters swing at consistently (50.2% chase rate) despite the fact that it's almost never a strike (24.6 Zone%). That adds up to a 26.6 SwStr% and a minuscule .129/.216/.200 line if opposing hitters manage to put it in play. Castillo seemed to realize that his change was his best pitch last season, throwing it more often (26.4% in 2018, 32.4% in '19) at the expense of his fastball (35.3% to 30%). If there is a flaw here, it's that Castillo walked more guys than you'd like (10.1 BB%). The problem was a relatively low Zone% on his fastball (45.5%), but its career rate of 51.3% suggests that favorable regression could be in order. Castillo's 17.9% HR/FB a season ago also looks troubling at first glance, but he allows so few fly balls (26.7 FB% last season) that he can succeed with an inflated rate. Castillo currently has an ADP of 50.27 in NFBC leagues, making him a great ace for owners who want to spend their first picks on offense.--Rick Lucks - RotoBaller