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Jonathan Gray 2019 Outlook: Still Possesses Intriguing Upside
6 years agoJonathan Gray was a popular sleeper heading into 2018. His 12-9 record was solid last year, but his 5.12 ERA was difficult for his fantasy owners to swallow. Gray wasn't actually as bad as his ERA made him look (3.47 xFIP), and his 24.6% K% was right in line with the 24.3% rate he posted in 2017. The problem was an 18.1% HR/FB that seems destined for at least some positive regression. Gray didn't actually allow that many fly balls last year (30.3%), so a lower HR/FB should do wonders for his ERA. More intriguingly, Gray managed to strike out the world over the first half (28.5%) before falling off substantially in the second (19.1%). If Gray can get the homers under control while repeating his first-half strikeout rate, he could turn a substantial profit on his current ADP of 200.29. The Rockies also figure to provide Gray with more run support with the addition of Daniel Murphy. There's always risk in drafting a Coors Field pitcher, but this author sees Gray as well worth the gamble in 2019.
