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Walker Buehler 2022 Player Outlook: Lack of Elite K’s Only Holdback From No.1 Status
3 years agoWalker Buehler is currently the consensus third starting pitcher drafted with an ADP of ~17 and for good reason. In 2021, among qualified pitchers, he ranked third in ERA (2.47), tied-third in wins (16) and was fourth in WHIP (0.97). His 28 quality starts last year easily ranked first (the second-best was 23) and he's been putting up elite numbers since his first full season in the Majors in 2018. Since 2018, Buehler's 2.82 ERA is fourth and his 0.99 WHIP is tied fourth-best among qualified pitchers. The only thing that is holding Buehler back from being the number one starting pitcher in fantasy is the lack of elite strikeouts. Buehler's 26.0% K% in 2021 was his lowest in any season as a pro and among all pitchers with at least 120.0 IP last year, ranked tied-35th. His underlying numbers (3.10 xERA, 3.57 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA) do suggest some regression and a sub-3.00 ERA might not be repeated in 2022. But it's the strikeouts that are preventing Buehler from being the number one starter in fantasy. He did still total 212 strikeouts last year (tenth most) which holds value (especially in roto leagues) and given his elite ERA, WHIP and wins (or quality starts), Buehler is still a top-tier SP1 in fantasy. Just not quite the number one option.
