Ian Desmond 2019 Outlook: Power-Speed Threat Makes For Solid Mid-Round Target
6 years agoColorado Rockies first baseman and outfielder Ian Desmond heads into 2019 seeking his sixth 20/20 campaign after standing as one of the 10 players to do so in ‘18. Desmond should see more run in the outfield with Daniel Murphy at first base but should spell Murphy enough to retain 1B eligibility into 2020 since the Rockies aren’t shy about shuffling. The real questions for Desmond are whether his average can rebound and if his power is sustainable. His average fell to .236 in 2018 due in large part to a lowly .279 BABIP that didn’t jive with his plus speed and the 62% groundball rate, but he hit .233 in ‘15 and came back to life the next season. The BA dip in ‘18 wasn’t due to shifting given his 30% pull rate and the career-best 34.1% hard-hit rate makes him a solid bounce-back candidate there. The power is another story, as his fly-ball rate was a lowly 21.5%, but a hefty 24.7% HR/FB rate buoyed the dingers. His previous career-high mark was 18.2% and it was 13.2% in his previous Coors campaign in ‘17, not to mention a 40-point drop in ISO at home, so it isn’t the mile-high air. Perhaps his stats at Coors will blossom and offset the overall HR/FB regression, but banking on lesser pop with an improved average seems wise. Look for roughly 40 HR+SB with an average in the .260s (Steamer projects .268), which certainly plays around our staff’s rank of 132 overall and his ADP of 143.