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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 6. Picks with confidence points for Week 5 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I had an abysmal week in Week 5. My seven-, nine-, and 10-point picks all lost. The group as a whole didn't do much better. "MIZ#2" led the way with 43 points. "BKNoleGirl" was the only other entry with 40 points. 10 more entries finished between 35 and 40 points.
"Rad" and "Dr.SteveBrule" went from third place to first this week. They lead the group with 202 points. "Ryan_Peoples" is in third place with 200 points. 11 more entries are still within 10 points of first place, so we still have a close race with nine weeks left.
There hasn't been much separation among the group pickers yet this year. 38 entries are still within 25 points of first place. It took 564 points to win the RotoBaller group last year. At the end of the first quarter of the season, no one is still on pace to break that mark. It has been a tougher season so far.
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College Football Pick'em Overview.
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This feels like a tough week. Don't forget to come back here before kickoff on Saturday to see if I've changed any of them around.
(1) Alabama over Georgia
This brings up memories of the 2015 matchup that was played in a downpour for most of the game in Athens. Alabama won that game, as they have won 10 of the last 13 meetings against Georgia.
I’d expect the SEC, Alabama and Georgia to make a final call on Saturday night’s game within the next 24 hours.
Latest modeling — which can and WILL change — currently looks bleak for the Alabama Gulf Coast.
Here’s the latest track, plus when hurricane hunter aircraft will be able to get critical data.
— Pat Smith (@patsmithradio) October 6, 2026
Kirby Smart is 2-7 against Alabama, and Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama in a regular-season game since 2007. I expect this game to play as scheduled unless it's a direct hit on Tuscaloosa.
A slog would definitely favor Georgia, as it would likely limit Keelon Russell's escapability. If that turns out to be the case, I will likely switch to Georgia.
There has been talk of this game being moved to either Atlanta or Sunday in Tuscaloosa. If they play on Sunday, I'll be back to Alabama. A game in the sun on a wet field is better than a game in a downpour for the Tide. No matter what happens with this, it will be my one-point game.
(2) West Virginia over Arizona
Arizona is a heavy favorite by the public (79%), but this game is in Morgantown at noon Eastern. Is it only Big Ten teams that have trouble going coast-to-coast? They are the only ones that complain about it.
Arizona will be without Tre Spivey, who did well as the WR1 when Giovanni Richardson was out. Spivey will miss the rest of the season with a broken foot. Both Richardson and Chris Hunter were also hurt in last Saturday's game.
The Arizona WR room could be very thin for this game. I don't trust the West Virginia defense, but this offense can score with anyone.
(3) Pittsburgh over North Carolina
The public is picking Pitt at 90%, but quarterback Mason Heintschel will miss the rest of the season. Holden Geriner did pretty well last week after Heintschel went down, but if this turns into a game where Pitt needs to pass to win, I'm not sure they can do it.
The RB room for Pittsburgh didn't miss a beat when Ja'Kyrian Turner missed most of September. The Panthers can and will win on the ground, but Carolina's run defense was very good up until the Notre Dame game.
Something has to give. I think it will eventually be the Carolina defense, but there is a reason that the Vegas line is down to -3.5 in favor of Pitt. This game is likely going to be close, and anything can happen in close games.
(4) Penn State over USC
The team that always complains the loudest about going east is USC. Penn State did them a solid by making this the Whiteout game, so it will be played at night.
Penn State being the betting favorite over USC is puzzling.
But here are the Trojans' results when traveling 2+ time zones under Lincoln Riley:
2023 vs. Tulane: 46-45 L (Cotton Bowl)
2023 @ Notre Dame: 48-20 L
2024 @ Michigan: 27-24 L
2024 @ Minnesota: 24-17 L
2024 @ Maryland: 29-28 L
2025 @ Purdue: 33-17 W
2025 @ Illinois: 34-32 L
2025 @ Notre Dame: 34-24 L
2025 @ Nebraska: 21-17 W
2025 vs. TCU: 30-27 OT L (Alamo Bowl)
2026 @ Rutgers: 42-35 WOverall: 3-8
— Joel Haas (@Joel_Haas1) October 5, 2026
USC hasn't covered a spread in any of those. Unusually, Penn State is favored, but every sharp and wannabe sharp knows this information and is smashing Penn State, even as the favorite.
At this point, it's not a coincidence. It almost feels like it's okay for USC to not show up in these games because the coach is always going to use the travel excuse.
(5) Houston over Kansas State
Houston hasn't played a complete game yet, so I am nervous about this one. We are six weeks into the season. Most of the kinks should be ironed out by this point.
Avery Johnson vs. Conner Weigman is going to be a fun quarterback matchup, but Johnson has very little help around him. There is a possibility that Houston's opponents have been better than we thought. If that's the case, they'll win going away. The Little Apple is a tough place to play, though.
(6) North Dakota State over UNLV
The Bison have demolished everyone put in front of them in their first year in FBS with the exception of Air Force. NDSU has a huge lead in that game in Colorado Springs before allowing the Falcons back in it.
FPI has UNLV favored slightly (52.8%), but Vegas still favors the Bison by 3.5. In these instances, Vegas is right far more often than FPI.
(7) Boise State over Fresno State
Boise State entered today with a 16-game winning streak at home, longest in the country.
They also held a 16-game winning streak over @MountainWest opponents.
Fresno State erased both of those streaks, taking the Milk Can Trophy back to Fresno ?
?: Fresno State https://t.co/6uXxyqqjnW
— Al Scott (@AlScott1998) November 2, 2025
You know how much we love college football trophies on this page. Here's a little-known one for most of you. Surprisingly, Boise hasn't won the Milk Can since 2022.
Fresno is not the same team that they were when they got embarrassed by USC about a month ago. The Bulldogs have improved quite a bit since then.
On the other side, Maddux Madsen is the only Boise State quarterback since they moved up to FBS (1996) that hasn't thrown an interception through five games. The offense is playing well behind Madsen, Dylan Riley, and true freshman WR Rasean Jones.
This feels like a game that Boise really wants. As of now, they are the heavy favorites to win one of the conference champion autobids into the College Football Playoff. A loss here ends that hope.
(8) Texas over Oklahoma
Texas hasn't won three straight in the Red River Shootout since Oklahoma's dark ages. Texas won three in a row from 1997 to 1999. Oklahoma exacted revenge by winning the next five in a row, two of them in blowout fashion.
The problem is that Oklahoma has only scored nine points combined in the last two games. Unbelievably, the offense looks even worse this year. That is Oklahoma's worst scoring output in back-to-back Shootouts since 1964-1965.
I want to believe that we can win this, but I just don't. No amount of bye weeks can save us. I have hope, and I'll gladly sacrifice the points to see an unlikely victory. I just don't want to be too far behind the pack if Texas blows us out; otherwise, I would have it lower.
(9) Missouri over Texas A&M
Many are touting this as a trap game, much in the way that Missouri was a trap game for Florida and Florida was a trap game for Mississippi. There's one major difference. Missouri's next game is at home. Those other instances were road games.
Add to that an A&M offense that is having trouble running the ball and is piling up injuries at WR just like Arizona, and there's not much of a chance that the Aggies take this.
Beating up on the worst team in the SEC doesn't make you good.
(10) Wake Forest over North Carolina State
Wake Forest is what North Carolina State was supposed to be. Rob Ezell has the Wake offense cooking behind his golden boy, Gio Lopez. The Pack has found new and interesting ways to lose every week.
It won't be anything new here. Just a Wake Forest offense that can now keep up with any team if they need to. The defense has been widely underappreciated during this run. Only allowing 33 points to Miami this year feels like quite an achievement.
