2021 First Look Fantasy Values: Outfielders

The baseball offseason may officially begin with the end of the World Series but the projections offseason began last Thursday night with the release of the first Steamer projections for 2021. Created and maintained by mathematics teacher Jared Cross and his former students, Steamer remains the industry standard for non-aggregated projection systems, as well as forming the basis for many popular projection systems like RazzBall and Depth Charts.

Projections systems aren't perfect. If they were, we'd all be like Biff in Back to the Future II. Every year, different systems perform differently, in regards to accuracy and do better in some years better than others. Some do better with hitters, some with pitchers, and not just overall but within each category. Projections may not be perfect predictions (although, this guy...) but they can provide reasonable starting points, with Steamer consistently providing some of the best.

We started with first and second base, seeing the ascension of Baby Vlad to full-size status and Nick Madrigal standing tall. And then we tried to burn it all down with the most contentious topic America could ever discuss...Adalberto Mondesi, top-five (overall!) fantasy asset. Luckily, RotoBaller is all paid-up on our "Thunderdome" insurance policy, so now we can move on to the outfield and let me get back to doing what I do best...Waxing poetic about Randy "Macho Man" Savage-zarena.

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Methodology

*If you've already read part one on 1B and 2B or part two on SS, thank you! Please skip ahead to p. 349 (Outfielder) to avoid rereading.

As mentioned, I converted  Steamer projections into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score method. As a refresher, z-scores is a popular statistical method for converting the totality of a player's scored categories, into a single number, by putting home runs, stolen bases, etc,  on a level playing field for comparison's sake. This is done by going category by category, calculating how each player's total compares to the rest of the league. Hitting 50 home runs may sound like a lot but not if everyone in the league hit at least 45 HR.

To calculate a z-score, you take the player's stat, subtract the average of the player pool, and then divide by the standard deviation of the player pool. For example, Steamer projects Freddie Freeman to hit 33 home runs, with the average of the player pool being 16.7 HR, with a standard deviation of 10.0.

(33 - 16.7)/10 = 1.6 z

A 0.0 z-score is equal to the league average, so Freeman's 1.6 z-score is saying that his 33 home runs are 1.6 standard deviations above the league average. This method is applied to each category (although the method is different for ratio stats) and each z-score is added together. This total z-score is then divided by the total z-scores in the player pool greater than zero and converted to dollars by dividing it by the total amount of fantasy dollars you have allocated for hitters or pitchers, using your chosen split.

This isn't the only valuation system and I'm not saying it's the best but it is reliable and widely used, much like Steamer. We're not trying to set these valuations and projections in stone, we just want to use them as an early and reliable touchstone as we dive into draft season. So, disagree! Whether in regards to playing time or talent rates, I'll be disagreeing plenty. But at least we'll be starting from a point of reasonableness.

 

Player Pool Caveats

When calculating z-scores, the player pool used is of major importance, with the pool getting watered down the bigger it gets. If you add 100 players who average 2 HR to a pool where the averages is 17 HR, the overall average is obviously going drop. For this exercise, I used a 150 PA minimum and a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league.

Feel free to quibble with the number; you should. I myself use a much more targeted player pool when making my own valuations, curated specifically for fantasy purposes. Pablo Sandoval is projected to hit seven home runs in 153 plate-appearances but do I really want him in my pool of players to be evaluated considering he has a massive negative fantasy value and won't be rostered?

But once again, I'm going for more of a neutral look in these valuations, so the player pool is set at a flat 150 PA, a total of 377 players. Just so you see how much player pool size can change valuations, moving to a 250 PA min leaves you with 305 batters (and the pool only loses eight players that were drafted in the top-430 of the 2 Early mock drafts). Ronald Acuna's top value jumps from $47 to $63; player pool matters.

The last caveat is about catchers, whom I treat as their own separate entity from the general player pool. We can get more into this when we get to them but the values for the other positions are being done without the dumpster fire of catching stats dragging everything down. This has a similar effect as limiting the pool by plate-appearances. For reference, Acuna's value with catchers in the pool is about two dollars lower than without.

Finally, a note about disagreeing and how to adjust. Projections are essentially made up of two building blocks. The playing time components (PA, IP) and the talent-rates, which is each projected stat divided by your chosen denominator (HR/PA, K/batter faced, etc). So keep in mind you might only be disagreeing with the overall value because of one or the other, not necessarily both, parts of the projection.

For example, Andres Gimenez is projected to be a below-replacement player but that's much more about his playing time than his projected talent. If he were to get 600 PA instead of his currently projected 421 PA, his line would be, 14 HR - 65 R - 64 RBI - 33 SB - .247 AVG, and his fantasy value would jump to $11.9, coming in as the #13 shortstop, just ahead of Marcus Semien.

 

Outfielders

Name	pos	ADP	adp_rank	stm_rank	$ Val	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF	2.6	2	1	49.1	683	42	115	99	28	.279
Juan Soto	OF	5.4	4	2	41.8	651	38	104	109	12	.304
Cody Bellinger	1B,OF	13.8	6	3	36.8	642	40	101	112	12	.282
Mike Trout	OF	4.6	3	4	36.4	671	40	116	105	10	.282
Christian Yelich	OF	10.9	5	5	36.1	670	35	104	97	18	.279
Mookie Betts	OF	2.2	1	6	33.2	685	32	110	88	19	.272
Eloy Jimenez	OF	43.7	12	7	27.6	632	39	90	107	1	.288
Luis Robert	OF	34.9	8	8	24.8	610	29	79	85	23	.260
Marcell Ozuna	OF	37.4	9	9	24.5	647	35	90	104	5	.276
J.D. Martinez	UT	80.9	19	10	24.4	651	35	94	106	3	.277
Kyle Tucker	OF	38.6	10	11	23.0	618	30	84	91	19	.256
Bryce Harper	OF	18.3	7	12	22.2	663	36	97	96	13	.249
Starling Marte	OF	42.6	11	13	20.7	646	20	76	77	22	.268
Eddie Rosario	OF	97.9	23	14	19.8	630	30	83	100	5	.274
Randy Arozarena	OF	116.8	30	15	19.6	627	25	80	78	21	.258
George Springer	OF	59.6	15	16	19.3	639	32	97	81	7	.269
Byron Buxton	OF	128.4	32	17	19.2	531	26	74	78	19	.264
Giancarlo Stanton	UT	102.6	26	18	18.2	588	41	89	103	4	.250
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	OF	94.8	22	19	17.8	618	29	79	91	8	.270
Charlie Blackmon	OF	81.1	20	20	17.4	609	25	84	80	6	.284
Franmil Reyes	UT	157	39	21	15.8	631	37	87	98	1	.260
Aaron Judge	OF	57.2	13	22	15.2	609	36	96	88	6	.248
Alex Verdugo	OF	134.1	35	23	15.1	615	16	81	72	8	.291
Michael Conforto	OF	72.4	18	24	15.0	648	32	90	92	6	.255
Tommy Pham	OF	102.2	25	25	14.6	575	21	80	71	15	.267
Trent Grisham	OF	57.8	14	26	14.3	639	24	90	74	15	.253
Anthony Santander	OF	184.9	47	27	14.2	639	30	83	90	5	.262
Max Kepler	OF	166.8	41	28	13.9	668	31	99	84	7	.250
Michael Brantley	OF	145.2	37	29	13.1	606	18	75	79	5	.289
Nick Castellanos	OF	85.3	21	30	11.1	651	28	87	87	3	.259
Victor Reyes	OF	223.7	55	31	10.2	591	12	69	56	18	.273
Teoscar Hernandez	OF	64.1	16	32	9.8	614	31	79	88	9	.240
Victor Robles	OF	163.6	40	33	9.3	594	16	68	64	22	.250
Wil Myers	OF	111.7	28	34	9.0	622	27	78	81	13	.239
Ian Happ	OF	143.2	36	35	8.9	636	29	87	80	9	.240
Jorge Soler	OF	126.7	31	36	8.7	616	33	83	89	3	.245
Andrew Benintendi	OF	220.6	54	37	8.6	622	17	83	68	13	.257
Randal Grichuk	OF	184.3	46	38	8.5	618	32	81	93	3	.246
Ryan Mountcastle	1B,OF	156.7	38	39	8.3	551	24	67	78	3	.275
Ramon Laureano	OF	131.9	34	40	7.5	625	23	77	76	11	.248
Andrew McCutchen	OF	207.4	51	41	7.2	628	26	87	69	9	.245
Lorenzo Cain	OF	265.9	67	42	6.7	604	13	73	56	16	.262
Austin Hays	OF	242.2	61	43	6.4	548	23	66	68	11	.255
Kyle Schwarber	OF	192.9	49	44	5.9	547	33	79	82	4	.238
Raimel Tapia	OF	248	64	45	5.7	557	10	64	55	14	.275
Mike Yastrzemski	OF	115.2	29	46	5.0	664	22	84	72	8	.247
Joc Pederson	OF	337.6	78	47	4.9	527	29	76	73	4	.249
Bryan Reynolds	OF	287.4	71	48	4.5	596	18	71	68	6	.267
Joey Gallo	OF	131	33	49	4.3	638	39	85	94	6	.209
Corey Dickerson	OF	340	81	50	4.3	573	20	67	69	5	.267
Avisail Garcia	OF	367	97	51	4.1	593	21	70	71	8	.254
Mark Canha	OF	227.2	56	52	3.9	632	23	79	80	5	.247
Clint Frazier	OF	190.1	48	53	3.7	579	25	73	78	6	.245
A.J. Pollock	OF	-		54	3.2	540	25	69	74	7	.245
Aaron Hicks	OF	238.7	60	55	2.7	611	24	81	76	8	.234
Justin Upton	OF	353.4	91	56	2.6	572	28	73	81	5	.237
Leody Taveras	OF	265.4	66	57	2.5	577	12	66	51	21	.244
Austin Meadows	OF	69.1	17	58	2.4	471	20	63	60	10	.256
Josh Naylor	OF	382.2	100	59	2.1	490	17	62	63	4	.278
Hunter Dozier	1B,OF	218.2	53	60	1.8	636	21	76	78	5	.246
Myles Straw	OF	356	93	61	1.4	490	4	54	42	26	.252
Willie Calhoun	OF	272	69	62	0.9	555	23	66	72	2	.257
Dylan Carlson	OF	167.4	42	63	0.9	532	18	62	63	11	.249
David Peralta	OF	300	73	64	0.8	553	18	64	69	2	.269
Mitch Haniger	OF	332.3	77	65	0.5	607	24	77	68	7	.237
Alex Dickerson	OF	283	70	66	-0.5	466	18	60	61	2	.275
Brandon Nimmo	OF	230.7	57	67	-0.6	616	18	83	61	8	.240
Dominic Smith	1B,OF	101.6	24	68	-0.6	539	22	65	71	3	.252
Adam Duvall	OF	271.4	68	69	-0.7	569	30	71	82	2	.231
Kevin Pillar	OF	340.9	82	70	-0.9	506	15	56	59	10	.257
Adam Eaton	OF	303.9	74	71	-1.2	508	12	65	51	9	.264
Alex Kirilloff	OF	339.8	80	72	-1.6	427	14	53	54	6	.277
Stephen Piscotty	OF	350.5	89	73	-2.2	541	21	64	69	4	.247
Kole Calhoun	OF	213.4	52	74	-2.2	600	25	74	74	4	.232
Nick Senzel	OF	232.9	59	75	-2.2	450	14	55	49	13	.252
Ryan Braun	OF	403	104	76	-2.9	434	18	54	60	6	.257
Jason Heyward	OF	338.2	79	77	-3.0	570	17	67	63	5	.250
Tyler Naquin	OF	-		78	-3.5	441	15	52	56	5	.268
Kevin Kiermaier	OF	255	65	79	-3.5	503	15	54	55	16	.233
Manuel Margot	OF	243.1	63	80	-3.6	405	10	46	43	17	.253
Kyle Lewis	OF	102.7	27	81	-4.0	654	22	71	75	6	.229
Jackie Bradley Jr.	OF	356.3	94	82	-4.4	561	20	65	65	10	.226
Harrison Bader	OF	357	95	83	-5.5	495	17	57	56	11	.233
Robbie Grossman	OF	326	76	84	-5.6	494	12	59	51	9	.250
JaCoby Jones	OF	402	103	85	-5.8	538	16	61	56	11	.233
Yasiel Puig	OF	242.2	62	86	-6.2	353	15	44	49	9	.255
David Dahl	OF	297.4	72	87	-6.8	413	14	50	51	6	.258
Franchy Cordero	OF	396	102	88	-7.2	378	14	46	48	7	.259
Dexter Fowler	OF	-		89	-7.8	576	18	66	60	8	.225
Andrew Stevenson	OF	351.3	90	90	-7.8	488	8	51	45	11	.253
Gregory Polanco	OF	364	96	91	-8.0	458	19	53	57	8	.229
Cristian Pache	OF	346.9	83	92	-8.5	480	11	52	51	8	.248
D.J. Stewart	OF	-		93	-9.0	400	17	50	51	5	.243
Shogo Akiyama	OF	355.4	92	94	-9.3	391	9	47	38	8	.264
Josh Reddick	OF	-		95	-9.4	426	12	48	49	3	.264
Roman Quinn	OF	347	84	96	-9.6	362	8	39	35	19	.231
Brett Gardner	OF	409	107	97	-9.6	452	13	53	49	8	.239
Jesse Winker	OF	178.4	45	98	-9.7	347	14	46	44	2	.271
Nomar Mazara	OF	407.2	106	99	-10.3	402	17	49	55	2	.246
Jo Adell	OF	201.6	50	100	-11.3	487	16	52	56	6	.230
Shin-Soo Choo	OF	375.3	98	101	-11.5	433	13	56	41	8	.233
Anthony Alford	OF	-		102	-11.7	411	9	41	39	16	.227
Oscar Mercado	OF	349.2	88	103	-12.0	330	8	39	35	11	.250
Yairo Munoz	OF	-		104	-12.6	309	9	37	36	8	.259
Delino DeShields	OF	417	109	105	-12.6	380	5	42	33	16	.234
Christin Stewart	OF	-		106	-12.8	437	18	51	54	1	.235
Tim Locastro	OF	-		107	-13.2	346	6	40	32	12	.246
Nick Markakis	OF	176	43	108	-13.3	376	8	42	42	2	.270
Trey Mancini	OF	231	58	109	-13.6	309	14	41	41	1	.261
Adam Haseley	OF	349	87	110	-14.0	391	10	42	42	4	.254
Ian Desmond	OF	-		111	-14.9	352	12	40	41	5	.242
Aristides Aquino	OF	-		112	-15.1	288	16	36	42	4	.234
Jake Bauers	OF	-		113	-15.5	309	11	37	37	6	.242
Jace Peterson	OF	-		114	-15.8	365	8	40	37	8	.238
Jay Bruce	OF	-		115	-16.2	318	16	39	45	2	.232
Adam Engel	OF	-		116	-16.2	393	9	42	41	8	.230
Jordan Luplow	OF	-		117	-16.3	300	11	37	38	4	.245
Chas McCormick	OF	-		118	-16.8	355	8	39	36	7	.239
Sam Hilliard	OF	348.6	85	119	-17.3	282	10	32	34	7	.236
Edward Olivares	OF	380.3	99	120	-17.5	260	6	28	28	8	.255
Harold Castro	OF	-		121	-17.6	379	5	36	35	4	.258
Jose Marmolejos	OF	415	108	122	-18.2	350	11	36	39	2	.245
Matt Kemp	UT	-		123	-18.9	317	13	36	39	2	.233
Tyler O'Neill	OF	348.9	86	124	-19.2	266	13	32	36	3	.230
Austin Slater	OF	311.6	75	125	-20.3	239	7	28	25	5	.251
Rusney Castillo	OF	-		126	-20.7	250	5	26	26	4	.263
Mallex Smith	OF	-		127	-21.7	182	2	22	15	11	.241
Taylor Ward	OF	-		128	-22.1	234	7	27	27	4	.240
Jarred Kelenic	OF	177.8	44	129	-22.6	223	7	24	25	5	.236
Jake Marisnick	OF	-		130	-23.0	213	8	24	25	5	.228

We start with a big disagreement right at the jump, as Steamer strongly disagrees with Mookie Betts being on top of the 2 Early mocks. Well, pardon me but I think I strongly disagree with Steamer. I'm not saying he's my number-one but these projections feel pretty light, especially on batting average.

Since when is Betts a .272 hitter?

Season	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	wOBA	wRC+
2014	213	5	34	18	7	.291	.361	129
2015	654	18	92	77	21	.291	.351	120
2016	730	31	122	113	26	.318	.379	136
2017	712	24	101	102	26	.264	.339	107
2018	614	32	129	80	30	.346	.449	185
2019	706	29	135	80	16	.295	.380	135
2020	246	16	47	39	10	.292	.390	149
Steamer	685	32	110	88	19	.272	.372	137

Projecting Betts to a .284 AVG instead (seven more hits) and keeping everything else the same, would move Betts from sixth to third, finishing behind only Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Speaking of Ronald Acuna Jr., he is in a place where Steamer and ADP definitely agree on his phenomenoness. The only difference is that Steamer thinks he's not only the number-one outfielder but exists in a class of value all by himself:

Name	ADP	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	$ Val
Ronald Acuna Jr.	2.6	683	42	115	99	28	.279	49.1
Juan Soto	5.4	651	38	104	109	12	.304	41.8
Cody Bellinger	13.8	642	40	101	112	12	.282	36.8
Mike Trout	4.6	671	40	116	105	10	.282	36.4
Christian Yelich	10.9	670	35	104	97	18	.279	36.1

Remember when people were worried about Acuna after he started slow, hitting just one home run and stealing one base in his first 15 games and slashing .214/.353/.357? That worry was quickly forgotten after Acuna proceeded to hit 8 HR in his next 11 games, finishing the year with a .413 wOBA and 157 wRC+.

But he also added an all-new wrinkle to his game...Did you know that he had an 18.8% BB%?  There is zero doubt about his power and Atlanta doesn't seem inclined to take away his green light on the basepaths anytime soon. So pitchers can either challenge Acuna and take their chances with the wicked hit stick, or put him on and let him potentially steal his way around. Regardless, that's fantasy gold for us, players.

Just because Juan Soto comes in second in fantasy values doesn't make him any sort of second fiddle. Having only recently turned 22-years-old, Soto continues to put up silly numbers, and going to his Baseball Savant page shows you a sea of red:

Just for good measure, Soto also had a .494 xwOBAcon and 20.9% BB% that was in the top-1% in 2020, in addition to the 1% accolades above, as well as a 14.3% K% that was in the top-9%. He just doesn't have any holes. Like, at all. And no, not on the basepaths either, as Soto continues to be a crafty base stealer. He had 12 SB (1 CS) in 2019 and then had 6 SB (2 CS) in just 47 games in 2020. Steamer projects 12 SB in 2021 but I see that as more of a floor and think 15+ SB is at least on the table.

Well, Steamer thinks the White Sox outfield is going to be pretty decent, with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert clocking in as the sixth- and seventh-best fantasy outfielders.  Robert and his speed potential is going to make him more appealing to fantasy players, in fact going about nine picks before Jimenez in early ADP. But Steamer sees Eloy as the better overall option, being projected significantly better in every category besides stolen bases, including a nearly 30-point advantage in batting average.

Jimenez raised his average exit velocity on FB/LD from 96.6 mph to 97.7 mph and his barrel-rate from 12.8% to a 16.4% Brl%, putting him in the top-4% of baseball. His K% and BB% both roughly stayed the same from his rookie year, as did his xSLG, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon, but his 55.7% hard-hit rate was an eight-point increase - and in the top-2% of hitters.

But Jimenez didn't just hit the ball harder, with more barrels. He did it across all pitch groups while seeing fewer fastballs, more breaking balls, and still passing with flying colors. Looking at his x-stats, his performance stayed steady against breaking and offspeed pitches but saw significant jumps against fastballs, even as he saw less of them.

Besides that, Jimenez's exit velocities on fastballs and offspeed pitches saw big jumps, giving more indicators that he's not getting fooled by non-fastballs and isn't missing when he does see one:

Year	Type	%	xBA	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA	EV
2019	Breaking	38.2	.228	.464	.328	.308	90.2
2020	Breaking	43.3	.232	.465	.313	.300	90.8
	change	5.1	.004	.001	-.015	-.008	0.6
2019	Offspeed	11.6	.236	.400	.329	.300	85.6
2020	Offspeed	11.4	.248	.403	.292	.304	87.3
	change	-0.2	.012	.003	-.037	.004	1.7
2019	Fastballs	50.1	.305	.593	.357	.396	92.6
2020	Fastballs	45.3	.337	.647	.432	.411	94.3
	change	-4.8	.032	.054	.075	.015	1.7

No one has ever paid off for me as well as Marcel Ozuna did in 2020 after I ran my mouth on him incessantly (and obnoxiously) throughout the offseason and drafted him on literally every last one of my redraft teams. The payoff was handsome, in terms of fantasy value, with Ozuna earning as a virtual consensus top-five hitter, hitting 18 home runs in 60 games, with 38 runs, 56 RBI, and a .338 AVG. More like, Boom-zuna, am I right? (I slay myself).

There's no sneaking up on your competition in 2021, however, with Ozuna clocking in at a 37 ADP. Steamer ( and me) still thinks that's a fair price, as the projections and ADP both have him as the ninth-best outfielder and a top-25 hitter. The biggest question is where the current free agent will land, as Ozuna spent 2020 in a favorable ballpark with two of baseball's best hitters hitting in front of him.

***We Now Interrupt Our Regularly Scheduled Programming to Bring To You the Latest Player That Nicklaus Will Talk About Incessantly From Now Until Forever Or Until He Runs Out of Gas. Which is Never...We're Sorry***

In a way, I'm more than a little annoyed that the entire world knows about Randy Arozarena after he broke records for the most home runs, hits, and total bases in a single playoff run. After following him through the minors as a Cardinals fan and then being furious that Tampa Bay rooked John Mozeliak again, I had fully planned on sneakily drafting my man Savage-zarena on every team in 2021. Alas, the only cheap profit I'm going to earn is picking up him up for pennies of FAAB after the Rays traded Jose Martinez, because Randy won't be going cheap after hitting 10 home runs during Tampa's postseason run.

Putting my man(dy) crush aside, I'm not the only one that thinks Arozarena is the real deal because Steamer essentially sees him as Luis Robert -lite ("Now without the 22% SwStr%, only while supplies last!)

I'll just leave this here:

Steamer 2021	ADP	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Luis Robert	35	610	29	79	85	23	.260
Randy Arozarena	117	627	25	80	78	21	.258

Their early ADP suggests that fantasy players believe in 2020's production and are ready to move Trent Grisham and Teoscar Hernandez into a new tier of superstar, but Steamer is projecting caution. That's the rub with projections, isn't it though? Sometimes they can be slow on the uptick with players that either lack a ton of major league plate appearances or have recently leveled up in talent.

In Grisham's case, Steamer really only doubts the speed, projecting him for just 15 SB after he stole 10 bases in the abbreviated 2020 season. If you keep everything else the same but bump him to 25 SB (not outrageous considering he was pacing for 27 SB in 2020) than Grisham's value would jump from OF 26 (#58 overall hitter) to OF 13 (#32 overall hitter). This is right in line with his current draft price of OF 14 and the #36 overall hitter.

There is a much bigger sample for Hernandez, who lit up for 16 HR in 50 games, after hitting a combined 48 home runs in 259 games in 2018-2019 after coming over from Houston in a 2017 trade. Hernandez showing that much pop isn't a big surprise, as he's always had good exit velocities and hard-hit rates. But a .289 AVG in 2020 after a .230 AVG and .239 AVG the previous two seasons, is quite a leap.

That leap, however, is backed with a lot of x-shininess, with Hernandez's large jumps in average, slugging, and wOBA all backed up by their expected-counterparts:

Season	PA	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
2018	523	.239	.238	.468	.506	.328	.347
2019	464	.230	.220	.472	.455	.325	.318
2020	207	.289	.295	.579	.613	.384	.381

Never soft-hitting, Hernandez took his hardness to a new level in 2020:

	2019	2020	+/-
Brl%	11.7	18.0	+6.3
Max EV (mph)	112.1	115.9	+3.8
Avg EV (mph)	91.2	93.3	+2.1
FB/LD EV (mph)	96.2	98.2	+2.0
Hard%	42.3	53.1	+10.8

Having an elite barrel-rate and exit velocities doesn't guarantee success, or else Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and Gary Sanchez would be the best players in baseball. But it's a solid start. What's just as inspiring is Hernandez's continued improvements against the different pitch grouping, particularly against offspeed pitches and fastballs:

Year	Type	%	pa	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
2018	Breaking	32.6	153	.250	.217	.472	.435	.322	.297
2019	Breaking	32.2	164	.179	.175	.404	.367	.271	.261
2020	Breaking	32.5	65	.136	.190	.271	.331	.204	.245
Year	Type	%	pa	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
2018	Offspeed	9.9	52	.188	.217	.313	.350	.236	.279
2019	Offspeed	10.1	52	.224	.210	.388	.325	.263	.247
2020	Offspeed	14.6	37	.286	.262	.514	.496	.350	.327
Year	Type	%	pa	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
2018	Fastballs	57.5	318	.243	.253	.493	.568	.346	.382
2019	Fastballs	57.7	247	.267	.255	.539	.546	.373	.371
2020	Fastballs	52.9	105	.385	.372	.792	.832	.496	.486

Steamer definitely doesn't agree with his early draft price. Hernandez was drafted around the 40th hitter (64th-overall) in the 2 Early mocks but Steamer projects him as just the 81st-hitter. Only 31 home runs feel light but the big discrepancy is the projected .240 AVG that his drafters have to be assuming is going to be a lot higher.

Speaking of breakouts that Steamer doesn't believe in, Dominic Smith is projected wa-aay below where he's being drafted around pick-100. I disagree pretty strongly with Steamer here, both in terms of his talent and playing-time projections. First, his projected 550 PA feels super-light after he took over full-time duties in New York last season and finished with 199 PA in 50 games. Granted, that was with a DH that the Mets won't have available* in 2021 but considering his competition, I think Smith's bat keeps him in the lineup most every day.

Update: Shortly after this was published, Buster Olney reported ($) that the universal DH is now a "safe bet" for 2021. This would seem to virtually assure that Smith has an everyday role.

In terms of talent, Smith was smoking the ball all season long. He had a .304 xBA (top-5%), .568 xSLG (top-6%), .374 xwOBA (top-8%), and .454 xwOBAcon (top-8%). And while moving from 88.3 mph to 89.8 mph was only a modest boost for his average exit-velocity, it was much more impressive seeing his max EV go from 108.5 mph to 110.7 mph and his EV on FB/LD jump from 91.8 mph to 94.9 mph. All in all, Smith ended with a 46.8% hard-hit rate that was up 12-points, not to mention a barrel-rate that rose nearly five-points to 13.5%.

The power is for real and so is the batting average, in my opinion. I really wish that his ADP wasn't already in the top-100 but I'm still pretty sure that I'll have plenty of exposure. Especially because of his dual-eligibility and the fact that I think first base is sneaky weak. I'm sorry but I'm just not excited about relying on Pete Alonso, Luke Voit, Paul Goldschmidt, or Matt Olson at their current ADP. In drafts where I don't end up with a premium option like Freddie Freeman or Jose Abreu, picking up Smith at his current price is going to feel pretty juicy.

This is the part of the article where I very quietly mention that one of my 2020 favorites, Victor Reyes, is projected by Steamer to return roughly the same value as Nick Castellanos. And this is the part where I quietly tiptoe away.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice