2021 First Look Fantasy Values: First Base and Second Base

The baseball offseason may officially begin with the end of the World Series but the projections offseason began last Thursday night with the release of the first Steamer projections for 2021. Created and maintained by mathematics teacher Jared Cross and his former students, Steamer remains the industry standard for non-aggregated projection systems, as well as forming the basis for many popular projection systems like RazzBall and Depth Charts.

Projections systems aren't perfect. If they were, we'd all be like Biff in Back to the Future II. Every year, different systems perform differently, in regards to accuracy and do better in some years better than others. Some do better with hitters, some with pitchers, and not just overall but within each category. Projections may not be perfect predictions (although, this guy...) but they can provide reasonable starting points, with Steamer consistently providing some of the best.

Starting today with first and second base, we're going to dig into what Steamer is projecting for this initial run, translating the numbers into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score methodology. This way, we can look at how the actual numbers compare to previous seasons (and future expectations) but also how much that projection would be worth if it actualized, in comparison to his peers.

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Methodology

As mentioned, I converted  Steamer projections into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score method. As a refresher, z-scores is a popular statistical method for converting the totality of a player's scored categories, into a single number, by putting home runs, stolen bases, etc,  on a level playing field for comparison's sake. This is done by going category by category, calculating how each player's total compares to the rest of the league. Hitting 50 home runs may sound like a lot but not if everyone in the league hit at least 45 HR.

To calculate a z-score, you take the player's stat, subtract the average of the player pool, and then divide by the standard deviation of the player pool. For example, Steamer projects Freddie Freeman to hit 33 home runs, with the average of the player pool being 16.7 HR, with a standard deviation of 10.0.

(33 - 16.7)/10 = 1.6 z

A 0.0 z-score is equal to the league average, so Freeman's 1.6 z-score is saying that his 33 home runs are 1.6 standard deviations above the league average. This method is applied to each category (although the method is different for ratio stats) and each z-score is added together. This total z-score is then divided by the total z-scores in the player pool greater than zero and converted to dollars by dividing it by the total amount of fantasy dollars you have allocated for hitters or pitchers, using your chosen split.

This isn't the only valuation system and I'm not saying it's the best but it is reliable and widely used, much like Steamer. We're not trying to set these valuations and projections in stone, we just want to use them as an early and reliable touchstone as we dive into draft season. So, disagree! Whether in regards to playing time or talent rates, I'll be disagreeing plenty. But at least we'll be starting from a point of reasonableness.

 

Player Pool Caveats

When calculating z-scores, the player pool used is of major importance, with the pool getting watered down the bigger it gets. If you add 100 players who average 2 HR to a pool where the averages is 17 HR, the overall average is obviously going drop. For this exercise, I used a 150 PA minimum and a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league.

Feel free to quibble with the number; you should. I myself use a much more targeted player pool when making my own valuations, curated specifically for fantasy purposes. Pablo Sandoval is projected to hit seven home runs in 153 plate-appearances but do I really want him in my pool of players to be evaluated considering he has a massive negative fantasy value and won't be rostered?

But once again, I'm going for more of a neutral look in these valuations, so the player pool is set at a flat 150 PA, a total of 377 players. Just so you see how much player pool size can change valuations, moving to a 250 PA min leaves you with 305 batters (and the pool only loses eight players that were drafted in the top-430 of the 2 Early mock drafts). Ronald Acuna's top value jumps from $47 to $63; player pool matters.

The last caveat is about catchers, whom I treat as their own separate entity from the general player pool. We can get more into this when we get to them but the values for the other positions are being done without the dumpster fire of catching stats dragging everything down. This has a similar effect as limiting the pool by plate-appearances. For reference, Acuna's value with catchers in the pool is about two dollars lower than without.

Finally, a note about disagreeing and how to adjust. Projections are essentially made up of two building blocks. The playing time components (PA, IP) and the talent-rates, which is each projected stat divided by your chosen denominator (HR/PA, K/batter faced, etc). So keep in mind you might only be disagreeing with the overall value because of one or the other, not necessarily both, parts of the projection.

For example, Andres Gimenez is projected to be a below-replacement player but that's much more about his playing time than his projected talent. If he were to get 600 PA instead of his currently projected 421 PA, his line would be, 14 HR - 65 R - 64 RBI - 33 SB - .247 AVG, and his fantasy value would jump to $11.9, coming in as the #13 shortstop, just ahead of Marcus Semien.

 

First Base

Name	adp	adp_rank	stm_rank	$ val	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Freddie Freeman	14	1	1	$30.0	662	33	99	101	5	.292
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	70	5	2	$28.6	640	31	93	99	3	.300
Anthony Rizzo	102	8	3	$21.2	663	31	97	94	6	.269
Jose Abreu	37	2	4	$19.9	658	33	88	102	2	.271
Pete Alonso	52	4	5	$17.7	649	43	94	104	2	.246
Paul Goldschmidt	79	7	6	$14.3	662	28	87	88	4	.265
Yuli Gurriel	311	21	7	$12.1	615	23	75	85	4	.273
Matt Olson	74	6	8	$11.8	629	37	87	98	2	.242
Miguel Sano	176	11	9	$10.4	623	39	87	98	2	.234
Eric Hosmer	148	9	10	$ 9.9	647	24	79	85	5	.260
Miguel Cabrera	325	24	11	$9.5	631	23	76	82	2	.271
Luke Voit	46	3	12	$8.3	615	31	85	87	1	.250
Joey Votto	390	28	13	$6.8	674	23	92	75	3	.254
Rowdy Tellez	313	22	14	$4.4	518	25	68	76	3	.258
Renato Nunez	203	13	15	$4.0	608	30	74	86	2	.241
Rhys Hoskins	168	10	16	$3.3	569	30	80	80	3	.233
Carlos Santana	209	14	17	$2.9	641	26	83	84	2	.239
Christian Walker	201	12	18	$1.0	576	23	69	76	4	.245
Bobby Dalbec	304	19	19	$0.8	551	28	70	76	4	.234
Brandon Belt	302	17	20	$0.5	561	20	72	68	3	.254
Jesus Aguilar	286	16	21	$(0.5)	565	25	68	72	2	.244
C.J. Cron	350	25	22	$(2.0)	513	25	64	72	2	.241
Jared Walsh	241	15	23	$(2.8)	519	23	66	69	2	.242
Evan White	318	23	24	$(2.8)	596	24	65	72	5	.233
Colin Moran	353	26	25	$(4.9)	478	16	54	59	1	.265
Josh Fuentes	-		26	$(5.3)	507	15	54	59	4	.256
Ji-Man Choi	-		27	$(8.9)	444	16	55	54	3	.243
Danny Santana	303	18	28	$(10.8)	385	14	43	44	11	.227
Garrett Cooper	309	20	29	$  (11.1)	426	14	47	49	1	.255
Jake Noll	-		30	$ (11.2)	452	11	45	48	4	.253
Ryan O'Hearn	-		31	$(12.2)	448	18	53	56	1	.231
Ronald Guzman	-		32	$ (13.4)	442	16	48	50	3	.231
Howie Kendrick	412	29	33	$(14.3)	262	9	32	35	2	.282
Daniel Vogelbach	359	27	34	$(14.7)	335	16	43	45	1	.235
Albert Pujols	-		35	$(15.1)	341	13	39	45	1	.247
Daniel Murphy	-		36	$(15.7)	318	10	37	40	1	.259
Ryan Zimmerman	-		37	$(15.8)	300	13	36	39	2	.246
Justin Smoak	-		38	$(19.9)	303	13	37	38	1	.222
Eric Thames	-		39	$(21.7)	265	11	32	32	2	.220

Surprise, surprise, Freddie Freeman remains the king of the mountain. Freeman is a warm and cuddly blanket that you can wrap around your team in the first two rounds and be confident you're getting a strong base for your offense. Also, in case you missed it, Freeman basically spent 2020 treating right-handed pitching like 2020 has been treating the rest of the world.

No, seriously:

2020	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
vs RHP	200	.373	.495	.733	.360	.499	216

It looks like Steamer thinks that this is the Vlad we've been waiting for. After a disappointing rookie season in which the 20-year-old failed to meet the unrealistic expectations placed upon him, it turns out that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still probably really good at baseball. Gone was the troublesome 89.4 mph average exit velocity, jumping to 92.5 mph, and his average on fly balls and line drives went from 93.2 mph in 2019 to 94.6 mph in 2020. It obviously follows that he'd see a rise in his hard-hit rate but jumping from 38.7% HH% to above 50% puts him in a new and elite bucket of hardness.

The projection I'm most skeptical about is a .298 AVG, after a .272 AVG in 2019 and a .262 AVG in 2020. Guerrero had a .261 xBA in 2019, a .263 xBA in 2020, and wasn't getting "BABIPed" either (.308, .282). He has a premium hit tool and maybe he'll just flip a switch and start batting .300. But for now, the evidence sure seems to say .270 is more likely. Regardless, at an 80 ADP, Baby Vlad feels pretty juicy and is likely to only go lower.

I'm totally here for the continued raking of Jose Abreu but he's going to cost you on draft day. Abreu leveled up his Statcast page in 2020, posting career-highs in barrel-rate, exit-velocity, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBAcon, and hard-hit%. Yes, all of them. And it's not like they were bad before, Abreu was just that dominant, finishing as a top-five hitter by most valuation systems. Just looking at the RazzBall player-rater, Abreu finished at #4, essentially tied with Jose Ramirez and just a skip away from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Trea Turner.

The price is going to be high but could be worth it, even if I think he'll be a lot closer to 40 HR than the 50+ he was pacing for in 2020. There is just something to be said for the security of using a premium pick on someone that you can virtually lock-in for 650 PA and a predictable (and high) floor:

Season	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
2014	622	36	80	107	3	.317	.383	.581	.411
2015	668	30	88	101	0	.290	.347	.502	.361
2016	695	25	67	100	0	.293	.353	.468	.349
2017	675	33	95	102	3	.304	.354	.552	.377
2018	553	22	68	78	2	.265	.325	.473	.337
2019	693	33	85	123	2	.284	.330	.503	.344
2020	262	19	43	60	0	.317	.370	.617	.411

Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto at #11 and #13? Old-timer revolution! But...Keep in mind that one thing projections don't always do a great job of is accounting for the effect of increased shifting. And both Cabrera and Votto saw big increases in 2020, although was Votto's was the most dramatic:

	2018 Shift%	2019 Shift%	2020 Shift%
Joey Votto	37.1	52.6	93.7
Miguel Cabrera	13.1	21.6	46.3

Looking first at their respective wOBA and xwOBA versus standard alignments and shifts, everything seems okay with Cabrera but you can already see trouble brewing with Votto:

	woba_std	woba_shift	+/-	xwoba_std	xwoba_shift	+/-
Joey Votto	.431	.336	-.095	.405	.353	-.052
Miguel Cabrera	.321	.314	-.007	.364	.359	-.005

Moving on to a better indicator of performance against shifting in wOBAcon and xwOBAcon (wOBA/xwOBA on contact only), Miggy stays level but Votto seems to have guaranteed that 90%+ shifts are coming his way again in 2021:

name	wobacon_std	vs shift	+/-	xwobacon_std	vs shift	+/-
Joey Votto	.474	.347	-.127	.443	.374	-.069
Miguel Cabrera	.368	.360	-.008	.439	.421	-.018

I have pretty low expectations for Votto, even at a 390 ADP in deeper leagues, regardless of what Steamer says. I'd rather use a late pick on upside instead of what is probably replacement-level production, at best. Cabrera, on the other hand, I don't necessarily think will get shifted more and aren't that worried if he does.

Besides the numbers above, Cabrera had a renaissance in terms of crushing lasers, posting a 93.2 mph average exit-velocity (95.6 mph FB/LD), and 49.7% hard-hit rate that were his highest marks since 2016. The problem is that asking for much more than 550 PA (even if he were healthy all season) from the soon to be 38-year-old is probably pushing it. The production will likely be useful but your league roster settings are going to determine if he's worth rostering.

 

Second Base

Name	pos	ADP	adp_rank	stm_rank	$ val	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Whit Merrifield	2B,OF	43	3	1	$27.5	691	16	93	66	24	.282
Ozzie Albies	2B	31	1	2	$24.2	641	26	87	84	14	.277
Jose Altuve	2B	113	10	3	$22.7	673	23	93	82	11	.280
D.J. LeMahieu	1B,2B,3B	35	2	4	$20.3	683	19	92	71	7	.293
Ketel Marte	2B	78	7	5	$19.7	666	21	90	79	7	.286
Nick Madrigal	2B	197	14	6	$19.5	565	7	68	59	20	.305
Keston Hiura	2B	70	6	7	$16.4	627	30	81	88	11	.254
Jean Segura	2B,3B	283	24	8	$14.4	649	16	76	74	10	.280
Mike Moustakas	1B,2B	142	12	9	$11.4	620	34	81	94	3	.248
Luis Arraez	2B	348	31	10	$8.4	545	7	65	57	5	.311
Tommy La Stella	1B,2B	252	20	11	$7.1	561	17	73	64	3	.284
Cavan Biggio	2B,3B,OF	67	5	12	$6.7	649	20	88	67	14	.237
Hanser Alberto	2B	351	32	13	$5.4	600	12	66	60	6	.281
Max Muncy	1B,2B,3B	102	8	14	$5.2	641	30	88	84	3	.234
Nick Solak	2B,OF	201	15	15	$4.5	556	18	64	64	9	.263
Brandon Lowe	2B,OF	60	4	16	$3.9	536	24	70	70	6	.251
Jeff McNeil	2B,3B,OF	109	9	17	$3.9	488	14	64	54	6	.285
Robinson Cano	2B	241	19	18	$3.2	516	19	62	70	1	.277
Jurickson Profar	2B,OF	238	18	19	$2.6	541	19	65	65	10	.249
Cesar Hernandez	2B	385	37	20	$2.5	630	11	73	58	7	.269
Donovan Solano	2B	347	30	21	$1.0	599	9	63	59	3	.282
Kolten Wong	2B	337	28	22	$(0.7)	509	9	60	48	13	.261
Ryan McMahon	1B,2B,3B	255	21	23	$(2.2)	526	20	62	65	4	.248
Nicky Lopez	2B	-		24	$(2.9)	568	7	60	52	10	.261
Dylan Moore	2B,OF	131	11	25	$(3.4)	471	14	52	48	20	.223
Scott Kingery	2B,OF	337	29	26	$(4.1)	611	18	64	65	12	.225
Michael Chavis	1B,2B,OF	373	36	27	$(4.3)	484	21	58	63	5	.239
Jonathan Schoop	2B	367	35	28	$(4.7)	471	20	57	62	2	.249
Chad Pinder	2B	-		29	$(4.8)	499	19	59	63	2	.249
Gavin Lux	2B	196	13	30	$(5.0)	415	14	50	50	7	.259
Christian Arroyo	2B	-		31	$(5.3)	450	14	54	54	5	.257
Jon Berti	2B,OF	270	22	32	$(5.3)	464	8	51	39	18	.240
Adam Frazier	2B,OF	-		33	$(5.7)	480	10	55	46	6	.265
Rougned Odor	2B	299	25	34	$(5.9)	502	24	57	64	9	.215
Starlin Castro	2B	360	33	35	$(7.2)	424	12	47	53	2	.270
Wilmer Flores	1B,2B	274	23	36	$(7.6)	359	14	44	48	1	.277
Luis Garcia	2B	-		37	$(10.2)	374	6	37	38	6	.277
Ty France	2B	314	26	38	$(11.2)	409	14	45	47	2	.253
Enrique Hernandez	2B,OF	-		39	$(14.1)	326	13	41	41	2	.248
Luis Rengifo	2B	-		40	$(15.2)	317	7	36	33	8	.245
Marwin Gonzalez	1B,2B,3B,OF	360	34	41	$(15.7)	366	11	41	42	1	.248
Franklin Barreto	2B	-		42	$(17.2)	322	11	36	38	6	.225
Garrett Hampson	2B,OF	230	17		$(18.0)	231	5	26	23	9	.249
Josh Harrison	2B,3B	-		43	$(18.3)	294	7	30	30	5	.249
Jason Kipnis	2B	-		44	$(19.0)	332	10	37	37	3	.231
Shed Long	2B	-			$(21.8)	234	7	25	24	5	.233
Johan Camargo	2B,3B	-			$(22.1)	213	7	25	25	1	.255
Isan Diaz	2B	223	16	45	$(22.3)	264	9	28	28	3	.226
Josh VanMeter	2B	-			$(22.5)	188	6	22	21	4	.246
Brendan Rodgers	2B	413	38		$(23.0)	162	5	19	20	2	.270
Jose Peraza	2B	-			$(23.4)	167	3	18	17	4	.266
Josh Rojas	2B	-			$(24.6)	151	3	17	15	5	.248
Mike Brosseau	1B,2B,3B	322	27		$(25.1)	156	5	18	19	2	.248
Jorge Mateo	2B	-			$(26.5)	162	3	16	16	5	.227
Greg Garcia	2B,3B	-			$(28.6)	160	2	17	13	2	.235

First base didn't have any monster surprises but the keystone is a different story, with Nicklaus Madrigal (yes, Nicklaus) coming in at #6. His line of 7 HR - 70 R - 60 RBI - .302 Avg doesn't look very exciting but is a great example of how using a valuation system, whether by z-score, SGP, or other, can act as an effective check against assumptions. Because regardless of if you believe in what Steamer projects, Madrigal will be incredibly valuable if he manages something near that line, even if it seems unspectacular.

The power is obviously junk (-1.0 z) and while the counting stats aren't special, Madrigal at least above-average in runs (0.6 z) and RBI (0.2 z). But being pumped up in batting average (3.1 z) and stolen bases (2.4 z) more than makes up for his other shortcoming, showing again how a high-average/speed combo continues to be more valuable than one might think. As teams keep running less, stolen bases continue to be a diminishing resource. And we've been seeing for a while that having a high batting average isn't necessarily a priority for current major leaguers.

Speaking of, that's precisely why Whit Merrifield comes in as the #1 second baseman, not posting as high of an average as Madrigal (.281, 23rd-highest) but projected with a little more speed and a lot more power and runs. He finished 2019 with 16 HR and a disappointing 20 SB (after 45 SB in 2018) but in 2020 he had 9 HR and 12 SB in just 60 games. For context, that extrapolates out to 24 HR and 32 SB in 162 games. Let's not get carried away and make him an automatic 20 HR guy but I think he can approach it and am very confident in the speed, as the Royals have shown no proclivity for stopping the green lights given to their speedsters.

Keston Hiura may have an elite 14.2% barrel-rate but his exit-velocity dropped alarmingly from 91.4 mph in 2019 to 87.4 mph in 2020 (95.1 mph to 93.7 mph on FB/LD). But what continues to be worrisome to me is his plate-discipline issues, posting a 34.6% K% (20.3% SwStr%) in 2020 after a 30.7% K% (17.5% SwStr%) in 2019. There appear to be some significant holes in his swing at the moment and that makes me wonder if a projected .253 AVG is being overly generous.

Kiura's .303 AVG was impressive in 2019 but was only backed by a .265 xBA. And this season, he had a .210 xBA along with his .212 AVG. Besides his overall average, Hiura had just a .148 AVG and .103 xBA versus offspeed pitches, and wasn't much better against breaking balls:

Year	Group	%	AVG	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
2019	Fastballs	65.7	.298	.263	.529	.519	.381	.365
2020	Fastballs	60.9	.224	.239	.456	.530	.321	.351
	change	-4.8	-.074	-.024	-.073	.011	-.060	-.014
2019	Breaking	26.6	.310	.259	.598	.498	.384	.329
2020	Breaking	29.6	.215	.200	.415	.385	.303	.278
	change	3.0	-.095	-.059	-.183	-.113	-.081	-.051
2019	Offspeed	7.7	.292	.257	.792	.692	.453	.407
2020	Offspeed	9.5	.148	.103	.185	.112	.180	.138
	change	1.8	-.144	-.154	-.607	-.580	-.273	-.269

I'd expect that he will continue to see fewer and fewer fastballs until he can prove he should be pitched otherwise. Hiura's 70 ADP is simply way too high for a 24-year-old who's only had one-half of a good season and is coming off a Mendoza-like batting-average performance that didn't come with many silver linings.

Like a slower Madrigal, Luis Arraez is going to earn his fantasy dollars on the strength of that wicked hit-stick he carries around. Arraez had a .321 AVG in 2020, albeit in just 121 PA after missing most of September dealing with left knee tendinitis, and his .310 AVG leads all Steamer projections for 2021. That makes me love, love, love his dirt-cheap 348 ADP because the worst-case scenario is a near-guaranteed batting-average stabilizer that can be snagged late if your team needs a boost.

And saying near-guarantee might actually be a conservative estimate because his 2021 projections aren't anything new. No matter the level, Arraez hasn't ever run anything but elite averages and on-base percentages, starting when he was just 17-years-old:

Season	Level	G	PA	AVG	OBP	wOBA	wRC+
2014	Rookie	31	135	.348	.433	.418	147
2015	Rookie	57	233	.309	.377	.373	133
2016	A	114	514	.347	.386	.385	146
2017	High-A	3	13	.385	.385	.418	168
2018	High-A	60	258	.320	.373	.366	129
2018	Double-A	48	195	.298	.345	.325	103
2019	Double-A	38	164	.342	.415	.379	142
2019	Triple-A	16	73	.348	.397	.360	112
2019	MLB	92	366	.334	.399	.360	125
2020	MLB	32	121	.321	.364	.335	111

If forced to bet my life (or my disappearing Nicholas Cage face, sequined pillow) on a player batting .300 in 2021, I'd put it on Arraez.

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