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Ariel Cohen - RotoBaller

21 articles

Ariel Cohen is a fantasy baseball analyst at RotoBaller, a multi-award-winning fantasy sports media company. Ariel was named the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year and also won the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019, while his ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System was also recognized as the most accurate projection system that same year. In addition to RotoBaller, he contributes to FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and SportsLine, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast. Ariel is highly active in the fantasy baseball community, competing in prestigious leagues such as Tout Wars, LABR, and high-stakes NFBC contests. He is also the 2020 Tout Wars Head-to-Head League Champion. Outside of fantasy sports, Ariel is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA), and works as a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on X (formerly known as Twitter) @ATCNY.

Articles

Elly De La Cruz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings and Tiers: #1 Accuracy Rankings In The Industry

Welcome to the biggest draft week of the 2026 season! We're back with updated ATC fantasy baseball rankings to crush your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections (2026): #1 Accuracy Projections In The Industry

The biggest week for fantasy baseball drafts is upon us! And today we're back with our updated ATC fantasy baseball projections to dominate your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Projections

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball projections for 2026, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025. The below ATC Projections cover the top 1,000 hitters […]


Paul Skenes - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Rankings

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball rankings, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019. You will not find ATC Rankings anywhere else, they are exclusively at […]


Ronald Acuna Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Betting Picks

Ariel Cohen's Takeaways From The 2023 Fantasy Baseball Season

As the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series has now concluded, I would like to share several takeaways that stand out to me from the fantasy baseball season. Some of these points will be a data-driven look at 2023 trends or anomalies. Some of these topics will help shape some fantasy draft strategy in 2024. […]


Bryce Harper - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

New MLB Rule Changes - How Fantasy Baseball Experts are Handling their 2023 Projections

Earlier this September, Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred Jr. announced a number of rule changes that Major League Baseball would begin to employ starting in 2023. The rule changes addressed a few general areas of the game of baseball from the pace of play – to the physical dimensions of the field – to […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts for 2022

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) index statistic for pitchers – mPDI, which was inspired by a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” Maddux’s simplistic […]


shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Top 100 Players

In my previous article, “Identifying Risk via the ATC Projections – Round 1,” I provided a primer on the ATC Projections volatility metrics. To further your understanding, and for a visual explanation of how these volatility metrics work, please check out the seven-minute video entitled, “Using ATC Projections to Minimize Fantasy Baseball Draft Risk.” This […]


kyle tucker fantasy baseball rankings MLB news draft sleepers DFS lineup picks

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Round 1

Today’s article will attempt to give the reader a few new perspectives on player risk. I will attempt to enhance your understanding of projections, and at the same time seek to form a more complete picture of each player. To do this, I will first color in your understanding of the makeup of the ATC […]


emmanuel clase fantasy baseball rankings closers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Five Undervalued Standout Pitchers - Maddux Plate Discipline

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” - Greg Maddux Using my weighted plate discipline index statistic - the Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) - we can enumerate the percentage of time in which pitchers demonstrate the […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) statistical metric which focuses on the core ingredients of plate discipline. The Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) looks at the following basic binary events: Was the ball thrown in the zone? Was the ball swung on? Did the batter make contact with the ball? Weighted Plate Discipline […]


The Mathematics of Fantasy Baseball: An Injured Fernando Tatis

The start of the 2021 Major League Baseball season has arrived notwithstanding adversity. The entire Mets versus Nationals series was postponed due to a number of players who tested positive for COVID-19. Prior to the season’s start, there were a number of talented major leaguers who succumbed to injury. Eloy Jimenez and Adalberto Mondesi were […]


cody bellinger fantasy baseball draft sleepers MLB injury news

ATC Projections Volatility for Multi-Category Players

One year ago, I penned my very first article on RotoBaller. I am truly honored that the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) awarded the piece as the 2020 Baseball Article of the Year. “Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections” provided a new perspective on how to find helpful multi-category players to fill out […]


How I Won Tout Wars

I am extremely fortunate to be able to write an article entitled, “How I Won Tout Wars.” It is truly a humbling experience, and I am both excited and proud to pen today’s words. Including all of the draft preparation that I describe in my aforementioned articles, here a few of the reasons that (I […]


2020 wRC+ Splits: Risers and Fallers

Baseball in 2020 is unlike any season that I can remember. The designated hitter is now present in the National League. You will not find any more LOOGYs with the institution of the three-batter minimum rule. Doubleheaders are now a combined 14 innings of baseball. Extra innings now start with a runner on second base. […]


Greg Maddux Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

In my previous article, I wrote about my new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which stems from a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” The […]


Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

Last year, I unveiled a new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which mirrors a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” If we consider the inverse […]


Ariel Cohen's 2020 MLB Awards Predictions

Baseball is back! Opening day is finally upon us. We can now finally log in to our fantasy leagues and observe as the statistics start to accumulate. What a great feeling! We had to wait a few months longer this year due to the tragic global pandemic of COVID-19, but we are finally here. I […]


Attacking Offensive Categories with Z-Scores

The way to win at fantasy baseball is to generate the most aggregate value on your roster. One cannot win with just an average fantasy team; one must be better than the mean. To accomplish this, owners must spend their fantasy capital efficiently in acquiring talent. Finding and drafting undervalued players is the key. Of […]


Aaron Judge

Adjusting Fantasy Baseball Projections for a Delayed Opening Day

With a heavy heart I write this column. I truly wish that there would have not been a reason to write this column. Coronavirus (COVID-19) has now postponed the 2020 Major League Baseball season. In an effort to employ social distancing, local governments have made the tough call to forbid the gathering of large crowds. […]


Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available […]


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