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Ariel Cohen - RotoBaller

21 articles

Ariel Cohen is a fantasy baseball analyst at RotoBaller, a multi-award-winning fantasy sports media company. Ariel was named the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year and also won the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019, while his ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System was also recognized as the most accurate projection system that same year. In addition to RotoBaller, he contributes to FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and SportsLine, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast. Ariel is highly active in the fantasy baseball community, competing in prestigious leagues such as Tout Wars, LABR, and high-stakes NFBC contests. He is also the 2020 Tout Wars Head-to-Head League Champion. Outside of fantasy sports, Ariel is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA), and works as a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on X (formerly known as Twitter) @ATCNY.

Articles

Elly De La Cruz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings and Tiers: #1 Accuracy Rankings In The Industry

Welcome to the biggest draft week of the 2026 season! We're back with updated ATC fantasy baseball rankings to crush your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections (2026): #1 Accuracy Projections In The Industry

The biggest week for fantasy baseball drafts is upon us! And today we're back with our updated ATC fantasy baseball projections to dominate your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Projections

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball projections for 2026, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025. The below ATC Projections cover the top 1,000 hitters […]


Paul Skenes - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Rankings

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball rankings, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019. You will not find ATC Rankings anywhere else, they are exclusively at […]


Ronald Acuna Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Betting Picks

Ariel Cohen's Takeaways From The 2023 Fantasy Baseball Season

As the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series has now concluded, I would like to share several takeaways that stand out to me from the fantasy baseball season. Some of these points will be a data-driven look at 2023 trends or anomalies. Some of these topics will help shape some fantasy draft strategy in 2024. […]


Bryce Harper - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

New MLB Rule Changes - How Fantasy Baseball Experts are Handling their 2023 Projections

Earlier this September, Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred Jr. announced a number of rule changes that Major League Baseball would begin to employ starting in 2023. The rule changes addressed a few general areas of the game of baseball from the pace of play – to the physical dimensions of the field – to […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts for 2022

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) index statistic for pitchers – mPDI, which was inspired by a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” Maddux’s simplistic […]


shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Top 100 Players

In my previous article, “Identifying Risk via the ATC Projections – Round 1,” I provided a primer on the ATC Projections volatility metrics. To further your understanding, and for a visual explanation of how these volatility metrics work, please check out the seven-minute video entitled, “Using ATC Projections to Minimize Fantasy Baseball Draft Risk.” This […]


kyle tucker fantasy baseball rankings MLB news draft sleepers DFS lineup picks

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Round 1

Today’s article will attempt to give the reader a few new perspectives on player risk. I will attempt to enhance your understanding of projections, and at the same time seek to form a more complete picture of each player. To do this, I will first color in your understanding of the makeup of the ATC […]


emmanuel clase fantasy baseball rankings closers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Five Undervalued Standout Pitchers - Maddux Plate Discipline

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” - Greg Maddux Using my weighted plate discipline index statistic - the Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) - we can enumerate the percentage of time in which pitchers demonstrate the […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) statistical metric which focuses on the core ingredients of plate discipline. The Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) looks at the following basic binary events: Was the ball thrown in the zone? Was the ball swung on? Did the batter make contact with the ball? Weighted Plate Discipline […]


The Mathematics of Fantasy Baseball: An Injured Fernando Tatis

The start of the 2021 Major League Baseball season has arrived notwithstanding adversity. The entire Mets versus Nationals series was postponed due to a number of players who tested positive for COVID-19. Prior to the season’s start, there were a number of talented major leaguers who succumbed to injury. Eloy Jimenez and Adalberto Mondesi were […]


cody bellinger fantasy baseball draft sleepers MLB injury news

ATC Projections Volatility for Multi-Category Players

One year ago, I penned my very first article on RotoBaller. I am truly honored that the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) awarded the piece as the 2020 Baseball Article of the Year. “Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections” provided a new perspective on how to find helpful multi-category players to fill out […]


How I Won Tout Wars

I am extremely fortunate to be able to write an article entitled, “How I Won Tout Wars.” It is truly a humbling experience, and I am both excited and proud to pen today’s words. Including all of the draft preparation that I describe in my aforementioned articles, here a few of the reasons that (I […]


2020 wRC+ Splits: Risers and Fallers

Baseball in 2020 is unlike any season that I can remember. The designated hitter is now present in the National League. You will not find any more LOOGYs with the institution of the three-batter minimum rule. Doubleheaders are now a combined 14 innings of baseball. Extra innings now start with a runner on second base. […]


Greg Maddux Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

In my previous article, I wrote about my new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which stems from a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” The […]


Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

Last year, I unveiled a new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which mirrors a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” If we consider the inverse […]


Ariel Cohen's 2020 MLB Awards Predictions

Baseball is back! Opening day is finally upon us. We can now finally log in to our fantasy leagues and observe as the statistics start to accumulate. What a great feeling! We had to wait a few months longer this year due to the tragic global pandemic of COVID-19, but we are finally here. I […]


Attacking Offensive Categories with Z-Scores

The way to win at fantasy baseball is to generate the most aggregate value on your roster. One cannot win with just an average fantasy team; one must be better than the mean. To accomplish this, owners must spend their fantasy capital efficiently in acquiring talent. Finding and drafting undervalued players is the key. Of […]


Aaron Judge

Adjusting Fantasy Baseball Projections for a Delayed Opening Day

With a heavy heart I write this column. I truly wish that there would have not been a reason to write this column. Coronavirus (COVID-19) has now postponed the 2020 Major League Baseball season. In an effort to employ social distancing, local governments have made the tough call to forbid the gathering of large crowds. […]


Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available […]


REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jose Altuve

Astros Put Jose Altuve on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Larry Nance Jr.

is Questionable for Game 1 on Tuesday
OG Anunoby

is Probable for Tuesday's Game 1
Luke Kornet

is Cleared for Game 1
New Orleans Pelicans

Jamahl Mosley Agrees to Become Pelicans Next Head Coach
De'Aaron Fox

is Ruled Out for Game 1 on Monday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Set to Start Game 7
Corey Seager

Going on Injured List With Back Injury
Tage Thompson

Can Match Franchise Record With Another Multi-Point Game
Nick Suzuki

Seeks More Road Success Monday
Lane Hutson

Riding a Five-Game Assist Streak Into Game 7
Filip Gustavsson

Needs Offseason Surgery
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Monday Against Twins
Cam Skattebo

Dynasty Stock Rising Following NFL Draft
Kaleb Johnson

Logging First-Team Reps in OTAs
Evan Engram

Dynasty Value Fading After Production Decline in 2025
TreVeyon Henderson

Dynasty Outlook Clouded By Split Backfield in New England
Caleb Williams

' Dynasty Upside Remains Sky-High Entering 2026
Bijan Robinson

Is Bijan Robinson the No. 1 Overall Player in Dynasty Formats?
Woody Marks

Should Have Plenty of Opportunities to Catch Passes
Drew Allar

Working as QB4 in First OTA Session
Aaron Rodgers

Reports to Steelers Facilities on Monday
Alvin Kamara

Saints Remain Non-Committal on Alvin Kamara's Future
Chris Olave

Saints Continue to Work on Extension With Chris Olave
Parker Washington

a Sneaky Trade Target in Dynasty Leagues?
Melquizael Costa

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 117
Jarquez Hunter

Can Jarquez Hunter's Dynasty Outlook Improve in Year 2?
Arnold Allen

Bounces Back
James Conner

Off the Dynasty Radar Entirely?
Elijah Arroyo

Will Elijah Arroyo Continue to Have Trouble Getting on the Field?
Daniel Santos

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Tre Tucker

Not a Long-Term Solution in Dynasty Leagues
MMA

Dohoo Choi Wins His Third Consecutive Fight
Malcolm Wellmaker

Suffers His Second Loss In A Row
Juan Diaz

Scores Second-Round Submission
Christian Edwards

Defeated At UFC Vegas 117
CFB

Transfer Running Back Arnold Barnes Visiting Iowa State on Monday
Modestas Bukauskas

Gets Split-Decision Win
Jack Bech

a Dynasty Hold as New-Look Raiders Offense Takes Shape
Jaydon Blue

a Low-Value Dynasty Stash Until Depth Charts are Settled
Makai Lemon

a Top-Five Pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
George Kittle

a Dynasty Buy with League-Winning Potential
Jhostynxon Garcia

Expected to Join the Pirates on Tuesday
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

a Dynasty Sleeper with High Touchdown Potential
Tobias Harris

Goes Cold in Game 7 Loss
Quinn Hughes

Open to Signing Extension This Offseason
Jalen Duren

Finishes Game 7 with Quiet Line
Cade Cunningham

Endures Cold Shooting Night Sunday
Joel Eriksson Ek

Misses Second Round Due to Heel Injury
Sam Merrill

Catches Fire in Game 7 Win
Evan Mobley

Posts Versatile Double-Double in Game 7
Jonas Brodin

Sits Out Round 2 Due to Toe Injury
Donovan Mitchell

Guides Cavaliers Into East Finals
Sam Malinski

Practices Fully Sunday
Jarrett Allen

Scores 23 Points in Cavs' Game 7 Rout of Pistons
Josh Manson

Rejoins Practice
Kevin Huerter

Active on Sunday Night
Caris LeVert

Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert Available Sunday
Dean Wade

Max Strus Replaces Dean Wade in Starting Lineup Sunday
Luke Kornet

Iffy for Monday
Larry Nance Jr.

Won't Play Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Monday's Action
Jalen Williams

Officially Available for Game 1 Against Spurs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Named MVP for Second Straight Year
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Bones Hyland

Wants to Stay in Minnesota
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
Jeremy Lauzon

Misses Saturday's Practice
Mark Stone

Doesn't Practice Saturday
Josh Manson

Misses Practice, Considered Day-to-Day
Brent Burns

Day-to-Day Ahead of Conference Finals
Cale Makar

Considered Day-to-Day
Alex Lyon

Likely to Start Game 6 Against Canadiens
Owen Power

Available Saturday
Trevor Story

Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

Likely to Need Elbow Surgery
Kyle Schwarber

on a Heater, Hits Two More Homers to Take Major-League Lead
Clay Holmes

Suffers Fractured Fibula on Friday Night
Blake Snell

Heads to 15-Day Injured List
Blake Snell

Scratched From Start on Friday for Undisclosed Reasons
Max Fried

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Bone Bruise
CFB

Julian Sayin Looking To Build Off Of Strong Debut Season
CFB

College GameDay Set for First Three Weeks
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Aiming For Ohio State Receiving Records
CFB

Keshaun Singleton Projects as Auburn's WR1
CFB

Jeremiah Cobb Impresses New Auburn Staff
CFB

Alberto Mendoza Very Likely to Start for Georgia Tech
CFB

Charles Woodson Jr. Commits to Michigan
Jordan Westburg

to Have Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Melquizael Costa

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Main Event
Arnold Allen

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 117
Daniel Santos

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Co-Main Event
MMA

Dohoo Choi Returns At UFC Vegas 117
Juan Diaz

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Malcolm Wellmaker

Looks To Bounce Back
Christian Edwards

Set For His UFC Debut
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Tarik Skubal

Resumes Playing Catch, Ahead of Schedule?
Lane Hutson

Contributes Two Assists in Game 5 Victory
Nick Suzuki

Amasses Three Points in Crucial Victory Thursday
Juraj Slafkovsky

Dishes Out Three Assists in Game 5 Win
Carter Hart

Stops 31 Pucks in Series-Clinching Win
CFB

Virginia Tech Lands Commitment from Four-Star QB Peter Bourque
Byron Buxton

Scratched on Thursday With Hip Soreness
CFB

NFL Veteran Tom Moore Joins Iowa Coaching Staff
CFB

Can Cam Cook Dominate in Return to Big 12?
CFB

ACC, Big 12 Support 24-Team College Football Playoff
CFB

Anthony Colandrea Looking to Elevate Nebraska Back to National Contention
CFB

Kwazi Gilmer Set for Big Impact at Nebraska
Justin Thomas

Trending Well Ahead of PGA Championship Despite Concerning Form
J.J. Spaun

Trending Up Ahead of PGA Championship
Adam Scott

Riding Strong Form Into PGA Championship
Patrick Reed

Looking to Make Another Run at PGA Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Build on Strong Finish at Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Must Keep Ball in Play at PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Complete Career Grand Slam at Aronimink
Brandt Snedeker

Not the Best Option for the PGA Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at PGA Championship
Maverick McNealy

Seeking Better Start in Philadelphia
Harry Hall

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Aronimink
Hideki Matsuyama

Attempts to Improve Over 2025 PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Defend PGA Championship at Aronimink
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Keep Momentum Rolling in Philadelphia
Ben Griffin

Attempting to Bounce Back After Truist Championship
CFB

Transfer Defensive Lineman Devarrick Woods Commits to Clemson
Harris English

Will Need His Putter to Thrive at Aronimink
Akshay Bhatia

Creative Flair Could Show Itself in Philadelphia
Keegan Bradley

Knows the Aronimink Golf Club Well
Si Woo Kim

Struggles at Truist Championship
Gary Woodland

Can Continue Incredible 2026 Season at PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele

In Excellent Form Heading to PGA Championship
RANKINGS
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1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF