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Ariel Cohen - RotoBaller

21 articles

Ariel Cohen is a fantasy baseball analyst at RotoBaller, a multi-award-winning fantasy sports media company. Ariel was named the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year and also won the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019, while his ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System was also recognized as the most accurate projection system that same year. In addition to RotoBaller, he contributes to FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and SportsLine, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast. Ariel is highly active in the fantasy baseball community, competing in prestigious leagues such as Tout Wars, LABR, and high-stakes NFBC contests. He is also the 2020 Tout Wars Head-to-Head League Champion. Outside of fantasy sports, Ariel is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA), and works as a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on X (formerly known as Twitter) @ATCNY.

Articles

Elly De La Cruz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings and Tiers: #1 Accuracy Rankings In The Industry

Welcome to the biggest draft week of the 2026 season! We're back with updated ATC fantasy baseball rankings to crush your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections (2026): #1 Accuracy Projections In The Industry

The biggest week for fantasy baseball drafts is upon us! And today we're back with our updated ATC fantasy baseball projections to dominate your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Projections

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball projections for 2026, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025. The below ATC Projections cover the top 1,000 hitters […]


Paul Skenes - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Rankings

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball rankings, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019. You will not find ATC Rankings anywhere else, they are exclusively at […]


Ronald Acuna Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Betting Picks

Ariel Cohen's Takeaways From The 2023 Fantasy Baseball Season

As the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series has now concluded, I would like to share several takeaways that stand out to me from the fantasy baseball season. Some of these points will be a data-driven look at 2023 trends or anomalies. Some of these topics will help shape some fantasy draft strategy in 2024. […]


Bryce Harper - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

New MLB Rule Changes - How Fantasy Baseball Experts are Handling their 2023 Projections

Earlier this September, Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred Jr. announced a number of rule changes that Major League Baseball would begin to employ starting in 2023. The rule changes addressed a few general areas of the game of baseball from the pace of play – to the physical dimensions of the field – to […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts for 2022

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) index statistic for pitchers – mPDI, which was inspired by a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” Maddux’s simplistic […]


shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Top 100 Players

In my previous article, “Identifying Risk via the ATC Projections – Round 1,” I provided a primer on the ATC Projections volatility metrics. To further your understanding, and for a visual explanation of how these volatility metrics work, please check out the seven-minute video entitled, “Using ATC Projections to Minimize Fantasy Baseball Draft Risk.” This […]


kyle tucker fantasy baseball rankings MLB news draft sleepers DFS lineup picks

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Round 1

Today’s article will attempt to give the reader a few new perspectives on player risk. I will attempt to enhance your understanding of projections, and at the same time seek to form a more complete picture of each player. To do this, I will first color in your understanding of the makeup of the ATC […]


emmanuel clase fantasy baseball rankings closers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Five Undervalued Standout Pitchers - Maddux Plate Discipline

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” - Greg Maddux Using my weighted plate discipline index statistic - the Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) - we can enumerate the percentage of time in which pitchers demonstrate the […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) statistical metric which focuses on the core ingredients of plate discipline. The Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) looks at the following basic binary events: Was the ball thrown in the zone? Was the ball swung on? Did the batter make contact with the ball? Weighted Plate Discipline […]


The Mathematics of Fantasy Baseball: An Injured Fernando Tatis

The start of the 2021 Major League Baseball season has arrived notwithstanding adversity. The entire Mets versus Nationals series was postponed due to a number of players who tested positive for COVID-19. Prior to the season’s start, there were a number of talented major leaguers who succumbed to injury. Eloy Jimenez and Adalberto Mondesi were […]


cody bellinger fantasy baseball draft sleepers MLB injury news

ATC Projections Volatility for Multi-Category Players

One year ago, I penned my very first article on RotoBaller. I am truly honored that the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) awarded the piece as the 2020 Baseball Article of the Year. “Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections” provided a new perspective on how to find helpful multi-category players to fill out […]


How I Won Tout Wars

I am extremely fortunate to be able to write an article entitled, “How I Won Tout Wars.” It is truly a humbling experience, and I am both excited and proud to pen today’s words. Including all of the draft preparation that I describe in my aforementioned articles, here a few of the reasons that (I […]


2020 wRC+ Splits: Risers and Fallers

Baseball in 2020 is unlike any season that I can remember. The designated hitter is now present in the National League. You will not find any more LOOGYs with the institution of the three-batter minimum rule. Doubleheaders are now a combined 14 innings of baseball. Extra innings now start with a runner on second base. […]


Greg Maddux Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

In my previous article, I wrote about my new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which stems from a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” The […]


Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

Last year, I unveiled a new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which mirrors a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” If we consider the inverse […]


Ariel Cohen's 2020 MLB Awards Predictions

Baseball is back! Opening day is finally upon us. We can now finally log in to our fantasy leagues and observe as the statistics start to accumulate. What a great feeling! We had to wait a few months longer this year due to the tragic global pandemic of COVID-19, but we are finally here. I […]


Attacking Offensive Categories with Z-Scores

The way to win at fantasy baseball is to generate the most aggregate value on your roster. One cannot win with just an average fantasy team; one must be better than the mean. To accomplish this, owners must spend their fantasy capital efficiently in acquiring talent. Finding and drafting undervalued players is the key. Of […]


Aaron Judge

Adjusting Fantasy Baseball Projections for a Delayed Opening Day

With a heavy heart I write this column. I truly wish that there would have not been a reason to write this column. Coronavirus (COVID-19) has now postponed the 2020 Major League Baseball season. In an effort to employ social distancing, local governments have made the tough call to forbid the gathering of large crowds. […]


Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available […]


REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Matt Boldy

Posts Two Assists in Season-Ending Loss
Scott Wedgewood

Perfect in Relief Effort
Martin Necas

Records Another Multi-Point Game
Brett Kulak

Sends Avalanche Into Conference Finals
Brayden McNabb

Suspended for One Game
Cal Raleigh

Exits With Apparent Side Injury on Wednesday Night
Juan Soto

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Juan Soto's Ankle
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled Early With Possible Leg Injury
Juan Soto

Exits Wednesday's Game Early with Ankle Injury
Tim Patrick

Jets Agree to Terms With Veteran Receiver Tim Patrick
Malik Nabers

Undergoes Second Knee Surgery
De'Von Achane

Dolphins, De'Von Achane Agree to Four-Year Contract Extension
Kevin Huerter

is Cleared to Return for Game 5
Caris LeVert

is Available for Game 5 on Wednesday
Duncan Robinson

is Out for Game 5
Keegan Murray

Undergoes Ankle Procedure
Josh Giddey

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Pete Fairbanks

Returns From Injured List
Christian Yelich

Out With Back Tightness on Wednesday Night
Nathan MacKinnon

Chasing History Wednesday
Ryan Poehling

Won't Be an Option for Game 6
Sam Malinski

Set to Miss Second Straight Game
Artturi Lehkonen

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
Matthew Schaefer

Wins Calder Trophy
TOR

Maple Leafs Fire Head Coach Craig Berube
Jalen Hurts

Can Jalen Hurts Bounce Back as a Rusher in 2026?
Robby Snelling

Placed on 15-Day Injured List with Elbow Sprain
Zach Charbonnet

Dynasty Value in Question Entering 2026
DeVonta Smith

Poised to Reach a New Level of Production in 2026?
Chris Olave

Facing Increased Target Competition in New Orleans Entering 2026
Chris Bell

Dynasty Stock Rising Following NFL Draft
Ted Hurst

Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time in Tampa Bay
Francisco Alvarez

Mets Place Francisco Alvarez on Injured List With Torn Meniscus
Max Fried

Dealing With Left Elbow Posterior Soreness
CFB

NFL Veteran Tom Moore Joins Iowa Coaching Staff
CFB

Can Cam Cook Dominate in Return to Big 12?
Chris Brazzell II

Is Chris Brazzell II the Top Deep Threat in Carolina's Receiver Room?
Kaelon Black

a Threat to Win Backup RB Job in San Fran?
CFB

ACC, Big 12 Support 24-Team College Football Playoff
De'Zhaun Stribling

to be 49ers' New "F" Receiver?
CFB

Anthony Colandrea Looking to Elevate Nebraska Back to National Contention
Drew Allar

Steelers "Uninstalling" Everything Drew Allar Learned in College
CFB

Kwazi Gilmer Set for Big Impact at Nebraska
Ja'Kobi Lane

Is Ja'Kobi Lane the Pass-Catching Answer the Ravens Have Been Seeking?
Zachariah Branch

Does Zachariah Branch Have a Path to Immediate Production?
Max Klare

Can Max Klare Separate Himself in Rams' Tight End Room?
Eli Stowers

the Tight End of the Future in Philadelphia?
Justin Thomas

Trending Well Ahead of PGA Championship Despite Concerning Form
J.J. Spaun

Trending Up Ahead of PGA Championship
Adam Scott

Riding Strong Form Into PGA Championship
Patrick Reed

Looking to Make Another Run at PGA Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Build on Strong Finish at Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Must Keep Ball in Play at PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Complete Career Grand Slam at Aronimink
Brandt Snedeker

Not the Best Option for the PGA Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at PGA Championship
Germie Bernard

Already in a Tough Spot to Hold Dynasty Value
Ayo Dosunmu

Has Busy Night in Game 5
Maverick McNealy

Seeking Better Start in Philadelphia
Harry Hall

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Aronimink
Jaden McDaniels

Notches 17 Points in Game 5 Loss
Denzel Boston

a Smart Bet to Meet or Exceed Value in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Hideki Matsuyama

Attempts to Improve Over 2025 PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Defend PGA Championship at Aronimink
Julius Randle

Posts a Double-Double in Losing Effort
Matthew Stafford

a Sell Candidate with Touchdown Regression Likely on its Way
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Keep Momentum Rolling in Philadelphia
Anthony Edwards

Held to 20 Points in Game 5 Loss
Ben Griffin

Attempting to Bounce Back After Truist Championship
CFB

Transfer Defensive Lineman Devarrick Woods Commits to Clemson
Keldon Johnson

Comes Alive in Game 5 Against Timberwolves
Jayden Reed

Dynasty Value Tethered to His Underwhelming Usage
Harris English

Will Need His Putter to Thrive at Aronimink
Stephon Castle

Makes All-Around Impact in Game 5
Victor Wembanyama

Leads Spurs to Big Win in Game 5
Akshay Bhatia

Creative Flair Could Show Itself in Philadelphia
Keegan Bradley

Knows the Aronimink Golf Club Well
Mason McTavish

Delivers Two Assists Tuesday Night
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pots Two Goals in Vital Game 5 Win
Josh Doan

Records Two Assists in Game 4 Victory
Evgeni Malkin

Penguins Want Evgeni Malkin Back
Sidney Crosby

Joins Team Canada for World Championship
Ryan Poehling

Suffers Upper-Body Injury in Game 5 Loss
Si Woo Kim

Struggles at Truist Championship
Gary Woodland

Can Continue Incredible 2026 Season at PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele

In Excellent Form Heading to PGA Championship
Brandon Nimmo

Leaves Game on Tuesday with Apparent Ankle Injury
Philadelphia 76ers

76ers Part Ways With Daryl Morey
Kevin Huerter

Iffy for Game 5 Against Cavaliers
Dylan Harper

Cleared for Action Tuesday
De'Aaron Fox

Available for Game 5 Against Timberwolves
Caris LeVert

Remains on Injury Report With Heel Issue
Duncan Robinson

Listed as Questionable for Game 5
Memphis Grizzlies

Brandon Clarke Dies at Age 29
Charlie McAvoy

Slapped With Six-Game Suspension
Jonas Brodin

Unavailable for Game 5 Against Avalanche
Joel Eriksson Ek

to Remain Out Wednesday
Sam Malinski

Day-to-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Jacob Wilson

A's Place Jacob Wilson on Injured List With Shoulder Subluxation
Christian Yelich

Brewers Reinstate Christian Yelich From Injured List
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Admits He Wasn't Close to Returning Before Season Ended
CFB

Isaac Brown Has All-American Upside in 2026
LeBron James

Uncertain About Future After Season-Ending Loss
CFB

Nyck Harbor Heading into Breakout Year?
CFB

Notre Dame, USC in Discussions to Resume Rivalry Series
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Has Eyes on ACC Title
CFB

Ahmad Hardy's Gunshot Wound Not Viewed as Career-Threatening
A.J. Ewing

Mets to Call Up Top Prospect A.J. Ewing
Mookie Betts

is Officially Back on Monday
Nathan Eovaldi

Scratched From Monday's Start With Side Tightness
Henry Bolte

Athletics to Promote Top Outfield Prospect Henry Bolte to Major Leagues
Khamzat Chimaev

Suffers his First Loss
Sean Strickland

Recaptures Middleweight Title
Tatsuro Taira

Suffers Fifth-Round TKO Loss
Joshua Van

Defends Flyweight Title
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Shane Van Gisbergen

Dominates Watkins Glen for First Win of 2026
Michael McDowell

Finishes Second for Best Run of the Year At Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Scores New Career-Best Finish of Third at Watkins Glen
Tyler Reddick

Continues His Strong Season With Fifth-Place Run at Watkins Glen
Austin Dillon

Earns his First Top-10 Finish of 2026 at Watkins Glen
Mookie Betts

Dodgers Expect Mookie Betts to Return on Monday
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Sustains Gunshot Wound, in Stable Condition
Connor Zilisch

Will Start Fifth in his First Watkins Glen Cup Series Race
Tyler Reddick

Is A Top DFS Option for Watkins Glen Lineups
Christopher Bell

Is Likely to Bounce Back This Week at Watkins Glen
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Activated for Season Debut on Sunday
William Byron

Is William Byron Playable in DFS Lineups at Watkins Glen?
Kyle Larson

May have A Positive Day at Watkins Glen
Chase Briscoe

May Compete for A Top-10 Finish at Watkins Glen
NASCAR

A.J. Allmendinger May have Another Solid Outing at Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Watkins Glen?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain Worth Rostering for Watkins Glen Lineups?
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Watkins Glen?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite at Watkins Glen
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott a No-Brainer DFS Pick at Watkins Glen?
Chris Buescher

Qualifies 14th at Watkins Glen
Ryan Blaney

Has Upside at Watkins Glen After Signing Contract Extension
Michael McDowell

Still Searching for First Top-Five Finish at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Too Aggressive for Road-Course Racing?
Luis Castillo

Mariners Intend to Piggyback Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller
Logan Webb

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Knee Bursitis
Bryce Miller

is Set to Return on Wednesday
Sean Strickland

An Underdog At UFC 328
Khamzat Chimaev

Set For UFC 328 Main Event
Tatsuro Taira

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Joshua Van

Set For His First Title Defense
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Looks To Extend His Win Streak
CFB

Walker Lyons Could be Go-To Target for Bear Bachmeier
CFB

Ty Benefield a Potential Game-Changer for LSU Defense
CFB

Hayden Lowe Set for Significant Role Following Miami's NFL Departures
CFB

Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
CFB

Rasheem Biles an Instant Impact Player for Texas
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