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Ariel Cohen - RotoBaller

21 articles

Ariel Cohen is a fantasy baseball analyst at RotoBaller, a multi-award-winning fantasy sports media company. Ariel was named the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year and also won the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019, while his ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System was also recognized as the most accurate projection system that same year. In addition to RotoBaller, he contributes to FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and SportsLine, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast. Ariel is highly active in the fantasy baseball community, competing in prestigious leagues such as Tout Wars, LABR, and high-stakes NFBC contests. He is also the 2020 Tout Wars Head-to-Head League Champion. Outside of fantasy sports, Ariel is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA), and works as a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on X (formerly known as Twitter) @ATCNY.

Articles

Elly De La Cruz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings and Tiers: #1 Accuracy Rankings In The Industry

Welcome to the biggest draft week of the 2026 season! We're back with updated ATC fantasy baseball rankings to crush your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Updated ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections (2026): #1 Accuracy Projections In The Industry

The biggest week for fantasy baseball drafts is upon us! And today we're back with our updated ATC fantasy baseball projections to dominate your drafts, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Projections: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Projections

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball projections for 2026, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019, and ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025. The below ATC Projections cover the top 1,000 hitters […]


Paul Skenes - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

ATC Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Industry's #1 Accuracy Draft Rankings

Below you will find ATC's fantasy baseball rankings, which are powered by ATC Projections, and industry legend Ariel Cohen. ATC Rankings were the #1 most accurate industry draft rankings in 2025, and ATC Projections have been the #1 most accurate industry projections since 2019. You will not find ATC Rankings anywhere else, they are exclusively at […]


Ronald Acuna Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Betting Picks

Ariel Cohen's Takeaways From The 2023 Fantasy Baseball Season

As the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series has now concluded, I would like to share several takeaways that stand out to me from the fantasy baseball season. Some of these points will be a data-driven look at 2023 trends or anomalies. Some of these topics will help shape some fantasy draft strategy in 2024. […]


Bryce Harper - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

New MLB Rule Changes - How Fantasy Baseball Experts are Handling their 2023 Projections

Earlier this September, Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred Jr. announced a number of rule changes that Major League Baseball would begin to employ starting in 2023. The rule changes addressed a few general areas of the game of baseball from the pace of play – to the physical dimensions of the field – to […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts for 2022

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) index statistic for pitchers – mPDI, which was inspired by a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” Maddux’s simplistic […]


shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Top 100 Players

In my previous article, “Identifying Risk via the ATC Projections – Round 1,” I provided a primer on the ATC Projections volatility metrics. To further your understanding, and for a visual explanation of how these volatility metrics work, please check out the seven-minute video entitled, “Using ATC Projections to Minimize Fantasy Baseball Draft Risk.” This […]


kyle tucker fantasy baseball rankings MLB news draft sleepers DFS lineup picks

Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Round 1

Today’s article will attempt to give the reader a few new perspectives on player risk. I will attempt to enhance your understanding of projections, and at the same time seek to form a more complete picture of each player. To do this, I will first color in your understanding of the makeup of the ATC […]


emmanuel clase fantasy baseball rankings closers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Five Undervalued Standout Pitchers - Maddux Plate Discipline

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” - Greg Maddux Using my weighted plate discipline index statistic - the Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) - we can enumerate the percentage of time in which pitchers demonstrate the […]


Early Plate Discipline Standouts

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) statistical metric which focuses on the core ingredients of plate discipline. The Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) looks at the following basic binary events: Was the ball thrown in the zone? Was the ball swung on? Did the batter make contact with the ball? Weighted Plate Discipline […]


The Mathematics of Fantasy Baseball: An Injured Fernando Tatis

The start of the 2021 Major League Baseball season has arrived notwithstanding adversity. The entire Mets versus Nationals series was postponed due to a number of players who tested positive for COVID-19. Prior to the season’s start, there were a number of talented major leaguers who succumbed to injury. Eloy Jimenez and Adalberto Mondesi were […]


cody bellinger fantasy baseball draft sleepers MLB injury news

ATC Projections Volatility for Multi-Category Players

One year ago, I penned my very first article on RotoBaller. I am truly honored that the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) awarded the piece as the 2020 Baseball Article of the Year. “Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections” provided a new perspective on how to find helpful multi-category players to fill out […]


How I Won Tout Wars

I am extremely fortunate to be able to write an article entitled, “How I Won Tout Wars.” It is truly a humbling experience, and I am both excited and proud to pen today’s words. Including all of the draft preparation that I describe in my aforementioned articles, here a few of the reasons that (I […]


2020 wRC+ Splits: Risers and Fallers

Baseball in 2020 is unlike any season that I can remember. The designated hitter is now present in the National League. You will not find any more LOOGYs with the institution of the three-batter minimum rule. Doubleheaders are now a combined 14 innings of baseball. Extra innings now start with a runner on second base. […]


Greg Maddux Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

In my previous article, I wrote about my new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which stems from a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” The […]


Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

Last year, I unveiled a new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which mirrors a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux: “The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” If we consider the inverse […]


Ariel Cohen's 2020 MLB Awards Predictions

Baseball is back! Opening day is finally upon us. We can now finally log in to our fantasy leagues and observe as the statistics start to accumulate. What a great feeling! We had to wait a few months longer this year due to the tragic global pandemic of COVID-19, but we are finally here. I […]


Attacking Offensive Categories with Z-Scores

The way to win at fantasy baseball is to generate the most aggregate value on your roster. One cannot win with just an average fantasy team; one must be better than the mean. To accomplish this, owners must spend their fantasy capital efficiently in acquiring talent. Finding and drafting undervalued players is the key. Of […]


Aaron Judge

Adjusting Fantasy Baseball Projections for a Delayed Opening Day

With a heavy heart I write this column. I truly wish that there would have not been a reason to write this column. Coronavirus (COVID-19) has now postponed the 2020 Major League Baseball season. In an effort to employ social distancing, local governments have made the tough call to forbid the gathering of large crowds. […]


Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available […]


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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Caufield

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Records Hat Trick of Assists in Game 4 Win
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a Top-Five Dynasty RB Despite Disappointing Rookie Campaign
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the Potential RB2 in New Orleans in his Sophomore Season
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Logs Sixth Double-Double of Postseason
Mike Conley

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Scores Efficient 24 Points in Season-Ending Loss
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Iffy for Monday Night
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Listed as Questionable for Game 4
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Uncertain About Future With Maple Leafs
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Enjoying Special Postseason
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Could Return to Action Monday
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a Game-Time Call Sunday
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Remains a Dynasty WR1 Entering 2026
Connor Zilisch

Will Start Fifth in his First Watkins Glen Cup Series Race
Tyler Reddick

Is A Top DFS Option for Watkins Glen Lineups
Christopher Bell

Is Likely to Bounce Back This Week at Watkins Glen
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Carlos Rodon Activated for Season Debut on Sunday
William Byron

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Potentially Undervalued After Disappointing Sophomore Season
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Posts Career Playoff Night in Game 3
Chet Holmgren

Helps Thunder Move to Brink of Conference Finals
Michael Pittman Jr.

Undervalued in an Environment Fit for His Skill Set
Tobias Harris

Extends 20-Point Streak in Saturday's Loss
Evan Mobley

Keeps Defensive Production Rolling Saturday
Rhamondre Stevenson

a Quality Dynasty Target in a Still-Improving Offense
Golden State Warriors

Warriors Extend Steve Kerr into his 13th Season
Kyle Larson

May have A Positive Day at Watkins Glen
Chase Briscoe

May Compete for A Top-10 Finish at Watkins Glen
NASCAR

A.J. Allmendinger May have Another Solid Outing at Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Watkins Glen?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain Worth Rostering for Watkins Glen Lineups?
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Watkins Glen?
Odell Beckham Jr.

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Bo Nix

Will be Full Speed Before Training Camp
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Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott a No-Brainer DFS Pick at Watkins Glen?
Chris Buescher

Qualifies 14th at Watkins Glen
Ryan Blaney

Has Upside at Watkins Glen After Signing Contract Extension
Michael McDowell

Still Searching for First Top-Five Finish at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Too Aggressive for Road-Course Racing?
Joey Logano

Needs a Good Run at Watkins Glen
Luis Castillo

Mariners Intend to Piggyback Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller
Duncan Robinson

Shines on Both Ends Saturday
Cade Cunningham

Records Second Career Postseason Triple-Double
Donovan Mitchell

Logs 35-Point Double-Double
James Harden

Plays Late Hero Saturday
OG Anunoby

Could Miss Another Game Sunday
Joel Embiid

Considered Probable for Sunday's Elimination Game
Jarred Vanderbilt

Active on Saturday Night
Logan Webb

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Knee Bursitis
Bryce Miller

is Set to Return on Wednesday
Jeff Hoffman

Could Return to Closer Role
CHI

Blackhawks Bring in Roman Kantserov for Next Season
Mason McTavish

Set to Rejoin Ducks Lineup Sunday
Lukas Dostal

to Remain in Ducks Crease Sunday
Zach Bogosian

Back for Wild Saturday
Jesper Wallstedt

Starting Game 3 Against Avalanche
Joel Eriksson Ek

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Owen Tippett

Won't Play Saturday
Cooper Kupp

a Dynasty Hold into the Start of 2026 Season
Jaylen Warren

a Safe Dynasty Depth Piece with Insurance Upside
Christian McCaffrey

a Risky Dynasty Hold Who Still Exceeds His Trade Value
Brian Thomas Jr.

A Risky Buy-Low with Immense Upside
Taj Bradley

Hits the Injured List With Pectoral Inflammation
Kyle Bradish

has Nice Bounce-Back Performance With 10 K's
Casey Mize

Throws Bullpen on Friday, Return Not Imminent
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Optimistic About Returning Next Wednesday
Mike Matheson

Leads by Example in Game 2 Win
Jakub Dobes

Rebounds After Loss Yet Again for Montreal
Alex Newhook

Sets Tone in Big Montreal Victory
Tyler Glasnow

Dodgers Put Tyler Glasnow on Injured List With Back Spasms
Blake Snell

to Make Season Debut for Dodgers on Saturday
Cole Ragans

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Khamzat Chimaev

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Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Joshua Van

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Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
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Nick Lodolo

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Hayden Lowe Set for Significant Role Following Miami's NFL Departures
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Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
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Rasheem Biles an Instant Impact Player for Texas
Roman Anthony

Heading for the Injured List
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Sam Leavitt Expected to Be Full-Go for Fall Camp
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Emilio Pagán

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Joe Ryan

Listed as Scheduled Starter for Saturday Against Cleveland
Tyler Glasnow

Not Expected to Land on the Injured List
Framber Valdez

Suspension Reduced to Five Games
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Suspended Six Games
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Brauntae Johnson the Next Star in Notre Dame's Secondary?
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Ethan Barbour a Name to Know in Georgia's Tight End Room
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Payton Pierce Next Up at Linebacker for Ohio State
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Javin Gordon to Play Significant Role for Tennessee?
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Tanook Hines Stepping into WR1 Role for USC
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Rueben Owens II has "Star Potential" in Fourth Campaign
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Truist Championship
Xander Schauffele

Carries Elite Form Into Quail Hollow
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Secures Third Win of 2026 Season
Patrick Cantlay

Continues Playing Well Heading to Truist Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Returns to Action For Truist Championship
Justin Thomas

Searching for Consistency at Quail Hollow
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Break Through at Quail Hollow
Adam Scott

Brings Strong Form to Quail Hollow
Robert MacIntyre

a Steady Option at Truist Championship
Jason Day

Looks to Overcome Approach Struggles at Quail Hollow
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Looks for Complete Game at Truist Championship
Justin Rose

to Continue Mid-Season Club Change at Truist Championship
Si Woo Kim

is Back to Peak Form Ahead of Truist Championship
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to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Cameron Young

Looks to Carry Dominance to Quail Hollow
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Returns to Familiar Stomping Grounds This Week at Quail Hollow
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Looking to Bounce Back at Quail Hollow
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Mario Craver Enters No. 1 Wide Receiver Role for Marcel Reed
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LaNorris Sellers a Strong Rebound Candidate in 2026
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Cam Coleman Poised for Monster Year at Texas?
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Will Hammond Pushing to Be Ready for Week 1
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Looking to Keep Up Ball-Striking Output at Quail Hollow
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Notre Dame Leads College Football in Returning Snaps
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Two Ole Miss Football Players Arrested, Charged with DUI
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